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UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
14-y Round 28.07.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 13:00 UTC 14-y Round
Finished

UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings

Nasaf - Qizilqum Zarafshon

Football
Nasaf
Nasaf
1 : 0
Finished
Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Nasaf — 59%

Pure model vs market (1 · Nasaf): model 60% · market 59% Δ +1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Nasaf ✓ Pick59.0%
market59%
X · draw25.1%
market26%
2 · Qizilqum Zarafshon15.9%
market16%

Model estimate: win Nasaf 59.0%, draw 25.1%, win Qizilqum Zarafshon 15.9%. Model favourite — Nasaf.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Nasaf (odds1.65) Score 2:1 confidence 51% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Nasaf: probability 51% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.65)
  • • no edge over the line (-10 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nasaf - Qizilqum Zarafshon July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nasaf.

Strongest: Nasaf - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.55 / X 3.56 / 2 5.73
  • 1X2 market: Nasaf 58.6% / X 25.5% / Qizilqum Zarafshon 15.9%
  • Glicko: Nasaf 59.0% / X 25.1% / Qizilqum Zarafshon 15.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.1%
1 ✓ Pick 58.6%
X 25.5%
2 15.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Nasaf 3 : 0 Qizilqum Zarafshon
11.54
X3.83
26.29

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
31 predictions Choose an outcome
1 25% 1
X 50% 2
2 25% 1
Double chance 1X 1.07 (1)
Total TB 2.5 1.96 (4) - TM 2.5 1.74 (2) - TM 3 1.36 (1)
total_t2_under total_t1_over:1_5 1.73 (3) - total_t1_over:2_5 3.15 (2) - total_t2_under:0_5 1.90 (1)
handicap1 handicap1:-1 1.87 (5) - handicap2:1 1.81 (1)
Match center
Start 28.07.2026 13:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Draw 50%
📐 Math model Nasaf 59%
💹 Market Nasaf 5861%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Nasaf - Qizilqum Zarafshon

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Nasaf - Kyzylkum, 28 iyulya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Uzbekistana po futbolu (PFL) 2026, 14 round. Nasaf - Kyzylkum, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 4 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Overview
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 59.0% fact: home hit / ROI 60.0% / Brier 0.256 / LogLoss 0.527
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 59.0% fact: home hit / ROI 60.0% / Brier 0.256 / LogLoss 0.527
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nasaf 59.0% 59.0% market and model agree
Draw 25.4% 25.1% draw risk
Qizilqum Zarafshon 15.6% 15.9%
1X2: 15 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 59.0% / 25.1% / 15.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,690 / 1,374 Nasaf / Qizilqum Zarafshon
RD 248 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,193-2,186 / 791-1,956 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.50 Fonbet · no value · model 15.9%
X 1.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 59.0%
Double chance
12 2.40 Fonbet · weak value +79.8% · model 74.9%
1X 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 84.1%
X2 8.50 Fonbet · no value · model 41.0%
Handicap
2 -1 3.10 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.79 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.70 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.30 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.10 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Yes 8.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.53 65.4% 1.56 64.1% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4%
X 3.50 28.6% 3.68 27.2% 3.50 28.6% 3.55 28.2% 3.75 26.7% 3.60 27.8%
5.60 17.9% 6.34 15.8% 5.25 19.1% 5.60 17.9% 6.00 16.7% 6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.03 97.1% 1.74 57.5%
yes 8.50 11.8% 2.02 49.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7% 2.40 41.7%
1x 1.05 95.2% 1.10 90.9% 1.06 94.3%
x2 2.27 44.1% 2.30 43.5% 8.50 11.8%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 7.00 14.3%
0_1 10.00 10.0%
0_2 26.00 3.9%
0_3 76.00 1.3%
1_0 4.50 22.2%
1_1 6.25 16.0%
1_2 15.00 6.7%
1_3 51.00 2.0%
2_0 5.50 18.2%
2_1 7.00 14.3%
2_2 17.00 5.9%
2_3 56.00 1.8%
3_0 9.00 11.1%
3_1 12.00 8.3%
3_2 29.00 3.5%
3_3 81.00 1.2%
4_0 19.00 5.3%
4_1 26.00 3.9%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 4-2-0, avg 1.83 gls
2025-09-21 · Nasaf 1:0 Kyzylkum
2025-04-27 · Nasaf 4:0 Kyzylkum
2024-08-16 · Nasaf 1:0 Kyzylkum
2024-03-16 · Nasaf 2:1 Kyzylkum
2023-08-19 · Nasaf 0:0 Kyzylkum
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.69 (Liga Stavok) · X 3.6 (Betcity) · 2 5.7 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.65 3.4 4.9
Winline 1.66 3.4 4.9
Fonbet 1.65 3.4 4.9
Betcity 1.55 3.6 5.7
Liga Stavok 1.69 3.45 4.8
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Nasaf
D W
22.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Nasaf 1:1 Mashal
16.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Nasaf 3:1 BunedkorBunedkor
1 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
4 Points
Qizilqum Zarafshon
D L
23.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Qizilqum Zarafshon 1:1 NavbakhorNavbakhor
18.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Qizilqum Zarafshon 1:2 Dinamo SamarkandDinamo Samarkand
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.5 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNasaf - Qizilqum Zarafshon

Nasaf
0 matches total
Qizilqum Zarafshon
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Nasaf
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Qizilqum Zarafshon
Nasaf Team comparison Qizilqum Zarafshon
13 Games 13
4 Wins 4
6 Draws 2
3 Losses 7
16 Scored 10
13 Conceded 18
18 Points 14
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
13 Games 13
4 Wins 4
6 Draws 2
3 Losses 7
16 Scored 10
13 Conceded 18

Nasaf Kyzylkum 13 Games 13 4 Wins 4 6 Draws 2 3 Losses 7 16 Scored 10 13 Conceded 18 Points 14 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Sleduyuschiy match 26.08.2026 Uzbekistan — PFL 2025 Kyzylkum –:– Nasaf 19 round Goly 1:0' Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 48% 38% 14% Double chance 43% 31% 26% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1303344' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');