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Uzbekistan. Superleague

14-y Round 28.07.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

28.07.2026 13:00 UTC 14-y Round

Finished

Uzbekistan. Superleague

Neftchi Fargona - Navbahor

Football

Neftchi Fargona

1 : 1

Finished

Navbahor

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Neftchi Fargona — 55%

Pure model vs market (1 · Neftchi Fargona): model 64% · market 54% Δ +10 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Neftchi Fargona54.8%

X · draw25.9%

2 · Navbahor19.4%

Model estimate: win Neftchi Fargona 54.8%, draw 25.9%, win Navbahor 19.4%. Model favourite — Neftchi Fargona.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Neftchi Fargona (odds1.49) Score 2:1 confidence 55% ✗ outcome missed

• Model backs Neftchi: probability 55% vs 67% on the line (odds 1.49)
• no edge over the line (-12 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Neftchi Fargona - Navbahor July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Neftchi Fargona.

Strongest: Neftchi Fargona - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.69 / X 3.45 / 2 4.47
1X2 market: Neftchi Fargona 53.5% / X 26.1% / Navbahor 20.4%
Glicko: Neftchi Fargona 54.8% / X 25.9% / Navbahor 19.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.5%

1 53.5%

X 26.2%

2 20.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Neftchi Fargona 2 : 1 Navbahor

11.50

X4.14

26.22

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions

36 predictions Choose an outcome

1 50% 3

X 33% 2

2 16% 1

Double chance X2 2.27 (2)

Total TB 2.5 1.97 (5) - TM 2.5 1.73 (1) - TM 3.5 1.23 (1)

total_t2_under total_t1_over:1_5 1.79 (5) - total_t1_over:1 1.24 (2) - total_t2_under:0_5 2.03 (1)

Both teams to score BTTS yes 1.96 (3) - BTTS no 1.70 (1)

Match center

Start 28.07.2026 13:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community Neftchi Fargona 50%

📐 Math model Neftchi Fargona 55%

💹 Market Neftchi Fargona 5351%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Neftchi Fargona - Navbahor

Football, Neftchi F - Navbakhor, 28 iyulya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches Neftchi F - Navbakhor, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Championship Uzbekistana po futbolu (PFL) 2026, 14 round.

Form 2/2 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Line 1 source Stavka.tv

Player opinions Stavka.tv 6 combined layer without duplicates

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Overview

More needed

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Movement Line history

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Neftchi Fargona 54.2% 54.8% market and model agree

Draw 26.4% 25.9% draw risk

Navbahor 19.5% 19.4%

1X2: 15 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 54.8% / 25.9% / 19.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,839 / 1,374 Neftchi Fargona / Navbahor

RD 250 / 291 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,339-2,340 / 791-1,956 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.13 Fonbet · no value · model 19.4%

X 5.60 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 54.8%

Double chance

12 1.10 Fonbet · no value · model 74.1%

1X 4.90 Fonbet · weak value +295.1% · model 80.6%

X2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 45.2%

Handicap

2 -1 1.06 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.95 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.20 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 6.50 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.07 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.25 Fonbet · line only

Yes 3.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	1.68 59.5%	1.64 61.0%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%
X	3.35 29.9%	3.74 26.7%	3.30 30.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.50 28.6%
	4.33 23.1%	5.15 19.4%	4.75 21.1%	4.50 22.2%	4.75 21.1%	5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.25 80.0%	1.80 55.6%
yes	3.50 28.6%	1.94 51.6%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.17 85.5%	1.23 81.3%	1.10 90.9%
1x	1.10 90.9%	1.14 87.7%	4.90 20.4%
x2	2.00 50.0%	2.20 45.5%	1.01 99.0%

Exact Score

Outcome	10Bet
0_0	8.00 12.5%
0_1	9.50 10.5%
0_2	19.00 5.3%
0_3	51.00 2.0%
1_0	5.25 19.1%
1_1	5.75 17.4%
1_2	12.00 8.3%
1_3	34.00 2.9%
1_4	101.00 1.0%
2_0	6.50 15.4%
2_1	7.00 14.3%
2_2	13.00 7.7%
2_3	41.00 2.4%
2_4	126.00 0.8%
3_0	11.00 9.1%
3_1	12.00 8.3%
3_2	23.00 4.4%
3_3	61.00 1.6%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-3-1, avg 2.17 gls

2025-08-16 · Neftchi Fergana 1:0 Navbakhor

2025-04-05 · Neftchi Fergana 3:2 Navbakhor

2024-10-20 · Neftchi Fergana 2:2 Navbakhor

2024-05-19 · Neftchi Fergana 0:1 Navbakhor

2023-12-01 · Neftchi Fergana 1:1 Navbakhor

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.75 (Betcity) · X 3.6 (Pari) · 2 5.8 (Pari)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	1.5	3.6	5.8
Winline	1.66	3.5	4.8
Fonbet	1.5	3.6	5.8
Betcity	1.75	3.5	4.1
Liga Stavok	1.64	3.6	5

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Neftchi Fargona

W W

21.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings

Neftchi Fargona 5:1 Sogdiana

16.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings

Neftchi Fargona 2:1 Bukhara

2 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

3.5 Scored

1.0 Conceded

6 Points

Navbahor

D L

23.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings

Navbahor 1:1 Kyzylkum

17.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings

Navbahor 2:3 OKMK

0 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.5 Scored

2.0 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNeftchi Fargona - Navbahor

Neftchi Fargona

0 matches total

Navbahor

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Neftchi Fargona

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Navbahor

13 Games 13

11 Wins 6

1 Draws 3

1 Losses 4

32 Scored 17

5 Conceded 12

34 Points 21

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Udary v stvor 0

13 Games 13

11 Wins 6

1 Draws 3

1 Losses 4

32 Scored 17

5 Conceded 12

Neftchi F Navbakhor 13 Games 13 11 Wins 6 1 Draws 3 1 Losses 4 32 Scored 17 5 Conceded 12 34 Points 21 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 51% 30% 19% Double chance 41% 34% 25% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1303334' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');