Venezuela. Primera Division. Group stage
Monagas face Deportivo La Guaira on August 1, 2026 in the Venezuela. Primera Division. Group stage.
Recent form (W-D-L): Monagas 2-1-2, Deportivo La Guaira 1-1-3. The market favourite is Deportivo La Guaira at roughly 41%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 30% to win — broadly in line with the market. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Deportivo La Guaira — 40%
Pure model vs market (2 · Deportivo La Guaira): model 21% · market 41% Δ −20 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Monagas 30.1%, draw 29.6%, win Deportivo La Guaira 40.3%. Model favourite — Deportivo La Guaira.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Deportivo La Guaira.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.10 32.3% | 3.27 30.6% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.20 31.3% | |
| X | 3.10 32.3% | 2.97 33.7% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.05 32.8% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 2.25 44.4% | 2.18 45.9% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% |
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.08 92.6% | 1.81 55.3% |
| yes | 6.10 16.4% | 1.90 52.6% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.32 75.8% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.12 89.3% |
| 1x | 1.52 65.8% | 1.58 63.3% | 5.00 20.0% |
| x2 | 1.28 78.1% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.01 99.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 0_1 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 0_2 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 0_3 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 0_4 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 0_5 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 1_0 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 1_1 | 5.25 19.1% |
| 1_2 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 1_3 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 1_4 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 1_5 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 2_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_1 | 9.50 10.5% |
| 2_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_3 | 26.00 3.9% |
| 2_4 | 61.00 1.6% |
| 3_0 | 31.00 3.2% |
Full head-to-head historyMonagas - Deportivo La Guaira
The Monagas - Deportivo La Guaira breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
