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28.07.2026 09:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 09:00 UTC
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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ - Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
K
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ
1
:
4
Finished
M
Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
๐ฏ PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model ยท comparison with the market line (no margin)
2 Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ โ 62%
Pure model vs market (2 ยท Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ): model 27% ยท market 64% ฮ โ37 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ 20.6%, draw 17.7%, win Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ 61.7%. Model favourite โ Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ (odds2.05)
Score 2:1
confidence 56%
โ outcome missed
- • Model backs Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ: probability 56% vs 49% on the line (odds 2.05)
- • edge over the line +7 pp โ value pick
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ - Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ.
Line favourite Fonbet: Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.63 / X 6.80 / 2 1.06
- Glicko: Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ 20.6% / X 17.7% / Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ 61.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin โ for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 47.1%
1
25.9%
X
10.0%
2 ✓ Pick
64.1%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds โ reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line โ for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
7.50
โ 33.00
1X2 X
4.05
โ 6.80
1X2 2
1.40
โ 1.09
โ odds shortened (money on this outcome), โ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ - Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Form
4/0
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:4
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 61.7% fact: away
hit / ROI 105.0% / Brier 0.220 / LogLoss 0.483
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 61.7% fact: away
hit / ROI 105.0% / Brier 0.220 / LogLoss 0.483
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ
18.6%
20.6%
Draw
17.5%
17.7%
draw risk
Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
63.9%
61.7%
market and model agree
1X2: 2 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
20.6% / 17.7% / 61.7%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,641 / 1,500
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ / Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
RD
255 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,130-2,151 / 800-2,200
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.06
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 61.7%
X
6.80
Fonbet ยท draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.63
market consensus ยท no value ยท model 20.6%
Double chance
12
1.07
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 82.3%
1X
7.10
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 38.3%
X2
1.01
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 79.4%
Handicap
2 0
1.01
Fonbet ยท line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.80
Fonbet ยท line only
Under 2.5
1.90
Fonbet ยท line only
Both teams to score
No
1.30
Fonbet ยท line only
Yes
3.10
Fonbet ยท line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| no | 1.30 76.9% |
| yes | 3.10 32.3% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.07 93.5% |
| 1x | 7.10 14.1% |
| x2 | 1.01 99.0% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.20 83.3% | |
| 1.90 52.6% | |
| 1.57 63.7% | |
| 1.58 63.3% | |
| 12.00 8.3% | |
| 3.95 25.3% | |
| 1.80 55.6% | |
| 2.25 44.4% | |
| 2.25 44.4% | |
| 1.01 99.0% |
Total
| Outcome | Bet365 | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | — | 1.23 81.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.80 55.6% |
| Over 3.5 | — | 2.75 36.4% |
| Over 4.5 | — | 2.90 34.5% |
| Over 5.5 | — | 2.35 42.6% |
| Over 7.5 | — | 3.60 27.8% |
| Under 1.5 | — | 3.55 28.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 3.40 29.4% | 1.90 52.6% |
| Under 3.5 | — | 1.40 71.4% |
| Under 4.5 | — | 1.35 74.1% |
| Under 5.5 | — | 1.53 65.4% |
| Under 7.5 | — | 1.25 80.0% |
Match center
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ
W
L
W
D
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ
4:0
Torki Yunayted ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Torki Yunayted ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ
0:1
Chelsi U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ
2:0
Bat ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ
1:1
Pul Taun ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
2
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.8
Scored
0.5
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ
0
matches total
Biggest win
โ
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
โ
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
โ
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Kardiff U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ - Manchester Siti U21 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form