Match center
Start
28.07.2026 14:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Mizoram Police - Leiria
M
Mizoram Police
3
:
2
Finished
L
Leiria
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Mizoram Police — 51%
Pure model vs market (1 · Mizoram Police): model 38% · market 54% Δ −16 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Mizoram Police 51.5%, draw 24.1%, win Leiria 24.5%. Model favourite — Mizoram Police.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Mizoram Police (odds1.99)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
✓ outcome correct
- • Model backs Las-Palmas 🇪🇸: probability 50% vs 50% on the line (odds 1.99)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Mizoram Police - Leiria July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mizoram Police.
Line favourite Fonbet: Mizoram Police. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 1.33 / 2 10.00
- Glicko: Mizoram Police 51.5% / X 24.1% / Leiria 24.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 84.2%
1
53.8%
X
40.8%
2
5.4%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
2.00
→ 2.00
1X2 X
3.70
↑ 3.75
1X2 2
3.20
↓ 3.15
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Mizoram Police
1
:
1
Leiria
11.81
X3.82
23.96
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Mizoram Police - Leiria
Form
2/2
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
3:2
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 51.5% fact: home
hit / ROI 100.0% / Brier 0.353 / LogLoss 0.664
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 51.5% fact: home
hit / ROI 100.0% / Brier 0.353 / LogLoss 0.664
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Mizoram Police
52.4%
51.5%
market and model agree
Draw
24.2%
24.1%
draw risk
Leiria
23.5%
24.5%
1X2: 4 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
51.5% / 24.1% / 24.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,406 / 1,537
Mizoram Police / Leiria
RD
236 / 255
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
934-1,878 / 1,027-2,047
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
10.00
Fonbet · no value · model 24.5%
X
1.33
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.01
Fonbet · no value · model 51.5%
Double chance
12
3.05
Fonbet · weak value +131.6% · model 75.9%
1X
1.05
Fonbet · no value · model 75.5%
X2
9.50
Fonbet · weak value +361.1% · model 48.5%
Handicap
2 -1
2.75
Fonbet · line only
2 +1
1.53
market consensus · line only
2 0
3.35
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
1.40
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.25
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
3.45
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.25
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.57
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.25 44.4% | 2.23 44.8% |
| yes | 1.57 63.7% | 1.61 62.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.16 86.2% | 1.22 82.0% | 3.05 32.8% |
| 1x | 1.15 87.0% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.05 95.2% |
| x2 | 1.86 53.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 9.50 10.5% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.30 43.5% | |
| X | 2.27 44.1% |
| 4.46 22.4% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.30 76.9% |
| Over 1 | 1.61 62.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.61 38.3% |
| Under 0.5 | 3.21 31.2% |
| Under 1 | 2.18 45.9% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.43 69.9% |
Match center
Mizoram Police
L
D
Mizoram Police
1:2
Al-Ittikhad 🇸🇦
Mizoram Police
1:1
Orlando Payrats 🇿🇦
Orlando Payrats 🇿🇦
0
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.5
Conceded
1
Points
Leiria
W
L
Leiria
2:0
AD Marco 09 🇵🇹
Leiria
0:1
Alverka 🇵🇹
1
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.5
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyMizoram Police - Leiria
Mizoram Police
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form