Who is the favourite in Graz vs Sparta Praha?

By the PropickAI model, Sparta Praha is favoured — about 61% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Graz vs Sparta Praha?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Sparta Praha. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Graz vs Sparta Praha?

Live odds for Graz vs Sparta Praha from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Sparta Praha win probability ~61% confidence High best odds 1.25

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Sparta Praha. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

Full Access Go deeper than the free pick Your free pick and probability are below. Full Access adds the full 7-AI consensus, every value-edge pick, math-model probabilities and complete reports for every match.

Get Full Access →

Minsk Cup International

28.08.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

28.08.2026 17:30 UTC

Finished

Minsk Cup

Graz vs Sparta Praha — Hockey prediction

International Hockey

Graz

1 : 4

Finished

Sparta Praha

Graz face Sparta Praha in ice hockey, in Minsk Cup, on 28 August 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Sparta Praha the favourite, with a win probability of about 61%. The bookmaker consensus (3 books) implies about 62% for the same outcome. The model puts the chance of a draw at 18%.

Latest form: Graz 0 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost; Sparta Praha 2 won, 1 drawn and 0 lost. On the Glicko scale it is 1328 for Graz against 1681 for Sparta Praha - a gap of 353 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. That is a 1-point gap to the market. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 353 Glicko rating points, the model's 61% for Sparta Praha. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Sparta Praha — 61%

1 · Graz21.0%

market 19%

2 · Sparta Praha ✓ Pick60.7%

market 62%

Model estimate: win Graz 21.0%, win Sparta Praha 60.7%. Model favourite — Sparta Praha.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Graz - Sparta Praha August 28, 2026

Hockey math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sparta Praha.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sparta Praha. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 4.50 / X 3.80 / 2 1.25
Glicko: Graz 21.0% / X 18.3% / Sparta Praha 60.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.8% 3 books

1 19.2%

X 18.8%

2 ✓ Pick 62.1%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 4.90 → 4.90

1X2 X 5.10 ↓ 4.70

1X2 2 1.45 ↑ 1.48

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Graz

19%

4.80

Draw

19%

4.90

Sparta Praha

62%

1.48

Total

Over 5.5

48%

2.85

Under 5.5

52%

1.74

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

0Wins1

2.0Goals on average4.0

Head-to-head matches: 1 · average total 6.0 (goals)

Team form

Graz

8-2WWWWWWWLWL

scored 4.1conceded 2.1

Sparta Praha

7-3WLWLWLWWWW

scored 2.8conceded 1.5

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Unlock the full AI analysis

Get the 7-AI consensus, math-model probabilities, value picks and full reports for every match with Full Access.

Get Full Access →

Match center

Start 28.08.2026 17:30 UTC

Market 1 17.3% @ 4.50 / X 20.5% @ 3.80 / 2 62.2% @ 1.25

Form 4 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Sparta Praha 61%

💹 Market Sparta Praha 62%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

🏦 Virtual bank $10,000

$10,000Virtual balance

Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.

Stake ($)

My virtual bank & leaderboard →

Match center

Graz - Sparta Praha

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 1/3 recent games

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 1:4

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 60.7% fact: away hit / ROI 48.0% / Brier 0.232 / LogLoss 0.499

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 41.0% fact: away hit / ROI 48.0% / Brier 0.522 / LogLoss 0.892

Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Graz 19.2% 21.0%

Draw 18.8% 18.3%

Sparta Praha 62.1% 60.7% market and model agree

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model

P1 / X / P2 21.0% / 18.3% / 60.7% probabilities

Rating 1,328 / 1,681 Graz / Sparta Praha

RD 274 / 242 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 780-1,876 / 1,197-2,165 strength interval

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 60.7%

X 3.80 Fonbet · no value · model 18.3%

1 4.50 Fonbet · no value · model 21.0%

Handicap

2 -1 1.12 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 1.62 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.30 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 5.30 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.12 Fonbet · line only

Over 3.5 1.18 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	2.15 46.5%
	4.80 20.8%
	1.60 62.5%
	1.95 51.3%
	1.20 83.3%
	9.50 10.5%
	5.30 18.9%
	6.00 16.7%
	1.62 61.7%
	1.14 87.7%
	2.20 45.5%
	1.75 57.1%
	3.90 25.6%
	1.03 97.1%
	8.50 11.8%
	1.12 89.3%
	1.09 91.7%
	1.30 76.9%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 2.5	1.12 89.3%
Over 3.5	1.18 84.8%
Over 4	1.23 81.3%
Over 4.5	1.25 80.0%
Over 5	1.60 62.5%
Over 5.5	2.85 35.1%
Over 6	2.35 42.6%
Over 6.5	8.00 12.5%
Over 7	3.70 27.0%
Over 7.5	12.00 8.3%
Under 2.5	5.20 19.2%
Under 3.5	4.30 23.3%
Under 4	3.70 27.0%
Under 4.5	3.60 27.8%
Under 5	2.20 45.5%
Under 5.5	1.37 73.0%
Under 6	1.53 65.4%
Under 6.5	1.05 95.2%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
	4.50 22.2%	4.80 20.8%	4.80 20.8%
X	3.80 26.3%	4.90 20.4%	4.90 20.4%
	1.25 80.0%	1.48 67.6%	1.48 67.6%

Match center

Graz

21.08 15:00 UTC Friendlies

Graz 1:6 Mauntfild

0 Wins

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

6.0 Conceded

0% Win percentage

Sparta Praha

W D W

20.08 14:00 UTC+0 Czechia. Friendlies

Sparta Praha 3:0 Vitkovitse

13.08 15:30 UTC+0 Czechia. Friendlies

Sparta Praha 1:1 Mlada Boleslav 🇨🇿

11.08 16:00 UTC+0 Czechia. Friendlies

Sparta Praha 4:2 Litomerzhitse

2 Wins

0 Losses

2.7 Scored

1.0 Conceded

67% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Graz - Sparta Praha

Graz

0 matches total

Sparta Praha

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Graz vs Sparta Praha — Hockey prediction

AI match prediction Graz - Sparta Praha August 28, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Forecast by market