PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3x10. Dnevnoy Tournament №2
Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3x10. Dnevnoy Tournament №2 International
28.07.2026 04:00 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 04:00 UTC
Finished

Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3x10. Dnevnoy Tournament №2

Metkie Strelki - Stalnye Topory

International Hockey
Metkie Strelki
Metkie Strelki
1 : 3
Finished
Stalnye Topory
Stalnye Topory
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Stalnye Topory — 51%

1 · Metkie Strelki49.4%
2 · Stalnye Topory50.6%

Model estimate: win Metkie Strelki 49.4%, win Stalnye Topory 50.6%. Model favourite — Stalnye Topory.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Stalnye Topory (odds2.18) Score 2:3 Under 5.5 (odds1.62) ✗ Handicap H2 +-0 (odds1.82) ✓ confidence 51% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Metkie Strelki: forma PVPVP (2-3)
  • • Stalnye Topory: forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • • ochnye 1-2 (za 3)
  • • Model backs Stalnye Topory: probability 51% vs 46% on the line (odds 2.18)
  • • edge over the line +5 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 2:3
  • • Total: Under 5.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
  • • at line 5.5 (odds 1.62)
  • • Handicap F2 +0: score forecast 2:3 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.82).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Metkie Strelki - Stalnye Topory July 28, 2026

Hockey math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Stalnye Topory.

Line favourite Fonbet: Stalnye Topory. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.25 / X 5.40 / 2 2.15
  • Glicko: Metkie Strelki 49.4% / X - / Stalnye Topory 50.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.5%
1 40.6%
X 16.9%
2 42.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.25 → 2.25
1X2 X 5.30 → 5.30
1X2 2 2.18 → 2.18

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 28.07.2026 04:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Metkie Strelki - Stalnye Topory

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 1/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament espn, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, goalie report
Referees Championat
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:3
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 50.6% fact: away hit / ROI 118.0% / Brier 0.488 / LogLoss 0.681
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 50.2% fact: away hit / ROI 118.0% / Brier 0.497 / LogLoss 0.690
Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Metkie Strelki 40.7% 49.4%
Draw 17.3% -
Stalnye Topory 42.0% 50.6% market and model agree
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model
P1 / P2 49.4% / 50.6% probabilities
Rating 1,493 / 1,556 Metkie Strelki / Stalnye Topory
RD 115 / 129 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,262-1,723 / 1,297-1,815 strength interval
HFA: 45 HFA mu: 0.259 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.15 Fonbet · value +8.8% · model 50.6%
X 5.40 Fonbet · line only
1 2.25 Fonbet · weak value +11.1% · model 49.4%
Handicap
2 0 1.80 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.90 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.06 Fonbet · line only
Over 3.5 1.18 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.35 74.1%
1.14 87.7%
1.06 94.3%
1.10 90.9%
3.10 32.3%
5.20 19.2%
1.90 52.6%
2.95 33.9%
4.90 20.4%
7.60 13.2%
5.90 17.0%
1.32 75.8%
1.13 88.5%
1.80 55.6%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.06 94.3%
Over 3.5 1.18 84.8%
Over 4.5 1.43 69.9%
Over 5.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 6.5 2.70 37.0%
Over 7.5 4.15 24.1%
Over 8.5 4.15 24.1%
Under 2.5 7.50 13.3%
Under 3.5 4.30 23.3%
Under 4.5 2.60 38.5%
Under 5.5 1.80 55.6%
Under 6.5 1.40 71.4%
Under 7.5 1.19 84.0%
Under 8.5 1.19 84.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
2.25 44.4%
X 5.40 18.5%
2.15 46.5%
Match center
Metkie Strelki
W
21.07 08:00 UTC Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3x10. Dnevnoy Tournament №2
Metkie Strelki 5:1 Khitrye Lisy
1 Wins
0 Losses
5.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Stalnye Topory
W L W W W
26.07 08:00 UTC+0 Russia. Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №7
Stalnye Topory 4:3 Svirepye Ezhi
26.07 04:00 UTC+0 Russia. Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №7
Stalnye Topory 0:4 Metkie Strelki
25.07 08:00 UTC+0 Russia. Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №6
Stalnye Topory 7:4 Khitrye Lisy
24.07 07:00 UTC+0 Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №5
Stalnye Topory 3:1 Svirepye Ezhi
24.07 05:00 UTC+0 Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №5
Stalnye Topory 2:0 Metkie Strelki
4 Wins
1 Losses
3.2 Scored
2.4 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMetkie Strelki - Stalnye Topory

Metkie Strelki
3 matches total
Stalnye Topory
Metkie Strelki: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Stalnye Topory: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Metkie Strelki 4:0 (26.07 04:00 UTC+0) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 7 goals (3:4, 22.07 05:00 UTC+0) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

7 Goals scored 6
6 Goals conceded 7

Match history

26.07 04:00 UTC+0 Russia. Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №7
Metkie Strelki
4:0
Stalnye Topory
24.07 05:00 UTC+0 Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №5
Metkie Strelki
0:2
Stalnye Topory
22.07 05:00 UTC+0 Russia. Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №3
Metkie Strelki
3:4
Stalnye Topory