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Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3x10. Dnevnoy Tournament №2
Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3x10. Dnevnoy Tournament №2 International
28.07.2026 09:00 UTC
Finished

Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3x10. Dnevnoy Tournament №2

Stalnye Topory - Ledovye Spartantcy

International Hockey
Stalnye Topory
Stalnye Topory
2 : 1
Finished
Ledovye Spartantcy
Ledovye Spartantcy
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Stalnye Topory55%

1 · Stalnye Topory ✓ Pick55.5%
2 · Ledovye Spartantcy44.5%

Model estimate: win Stalnye Topory 55.5%, win Ledovye Spartantcy 44.5%. Model favourite — Stalnye Topory.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Stalnye Topory (odds2.20) Score 3:2 Over 4.5 (odds1.65) Handicap H1 +0 (odds1.82) confidence 54% ✓ outcome correct
  • Stalnye Topory: forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • Ledovye Spartantsy: forma VVPPP (2-3)
  • Model backs Stalnye Topory: probability 54% vs 45% on the line (odds 2.20)
  • edge over the line +9 pp — value pick
  • Expected score 3:2
  • Total: Over 4.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
  • at line 4.5 (odds 1.65)
  • Handicap F1 +0: score forecast 3:2 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.82).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Stalnye Topory - Ledovye Spartantcy July 28, 2026

Hockey math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Ledovye Spartantcy.

Line favourite Fonbet: Ledovye Spartantcy. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.25 / X 5.30 / 2 2.18
  • Glicko: Stalnye Topory 55.5% / X - / Ledovye Spartantcy 44.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.2%
1 ✓ Pick 40.7%
X 17.3%
2 42.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.20 → 2.20
1X2 X 5.00 → 5.00
1X2 2 2.30 → 2.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 09:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
Match center

Stalnye Topory - Ledovye Spartantcy

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 2/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament espn, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, goalie report
Referees Championat
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 55.5% fact: home hit / ROI 120.0% / Brier 0.396 / LogLoss 0.589
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 51.5% fact: home hit / ROI 120.0% / Brier 0.470 / LogLoss 0.663
Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Stalnye Topory 41.7% 55.5% market and model agree
Draw 18.4% -
Ledovye Spartantcy 39.9% 44.5%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model
P1 / P2 55.5% / 44.5% probabilities
Rating 1,597 / 1,466 Stalnye Topory / Ledovye Spartantcy
RD 123 / 129 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,352-1,842 / 1,208-1,725 strength interval
HFA: 45 HFA mu: 0.259 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.18 Fonbet · no value · model 44.5%
X 5.30 Fonbet · line only
1 2.25 Fonbet · value +24.9% · model 55.5%
Handicap
2 0 1.82 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.88 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.07 Fonbet · line only
Over 3.5 1.19 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.35 74.1%
1.13 88.5%
3.10 32.3%
5.20 19.2%
5.10 19.6%
1.88 53.2%
3.00 33.3%
5.00 20.0%
1.30 76.9%
1.12 89.3%
1.13 88.5%
1.82 55.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.07 93.5%
Over 3.5 1.19 84.0%
Over 4.5 1.45 69.0%
Over 5.5 1.97 50.8%
Over 6.5 2.80 35.7%
Over 7.5 4.30 23.3%
Over 8.5 4.70 21.3%
Under 2.5 6.70 14.9%
Under 3.5 4.10 24.4%
Under 4.5 2.50 40.0%
Under 5.5 1.73 57.8%
Under 6.5 1.38 72.5%
Under 7.5 1.18 84.8%
Under 8.5 1.15 87.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
2.25 44.4%
X 5.30 18.9%
2.18 45.9%
Match center
Stalnye Topory
W W
28.07 06:00 UTC Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3x10. Dnevnoy Tournament №2
Stalnye Topory 8:4 Khitrye Lisy
28.07 04:00 UTC Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3x10. Dnevnoy Tournament №2
Stalnye Topory 3:1 Metkie Strelki
2 Wins
0 Losses
5.5 Scored
2.5 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Ledovye Spartantcy
W W L L L
27.07 04:00 UTC+0 Russia. Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №1
Ledovye Spartantcy 3:2 Khitrye Lisy
18.07 09:00 UTC+0 Russia. Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №6
Ledovye Spartantcy 3:2 Svirepye Ezhi
18.07 07:00 UTC+0 Russia. Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №6
Ledovye Spartantcy 1:3 Khitrye Lisy
17.07 05:00 UTC+0 Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №5
Ledovye Spartantcy 3:4 Stalnye topory
15.07 09:00 UTC+0 Russia. Otkrytyy Championship Magnitka Oupen. 3kh10. Dnevnoy Tournament №3
Ledovye Spartantcy 0:3 Svirepye Ezhi
2 Wins
3 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage