AI verdict

AI pick CSK VVS Samara win probability ~50%

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to CSK VVS Samara. Full breakdown below.

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Club Friendly Games
Club Friendly Games International
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
13.08.2026 15:30 UTC
Finished

Club Friendly Games

Neftyanik Almetyevsk - CSK VVS Samara

International Hockey
Neftyanik Almetyevsk
Neftyanik Almetyevsk
3 : 3
Finished
CSK VVS Samara
CSK VVS Samara

Neftyanik Almetyevsk meet CSK VVS Samara on August 13, 2026 in the Club Friendly Games, International.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 50% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 CSK VVS Samara50%

1 · Neftyanik Almetyevsk49.9%
2 · CSK VVS Samara50.1%

Model estimate: win Neftyanik Almetyevsk 49.9%, win CSK VVS Samara 50.1%. Model favourite — CSK VVS Samara.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2CSK VVS Samara (odds6.10) Score 2:3 Handicap H2 +1.5 (odds2.02) confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • Neftyanik Almetevsk: forma PPVVP (2-3)
  • liniya na pik P2 4.30→6.10 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
  • Model backs TsSK VVS Samara: probability 50% vs 16% on the line (odds 6.10)
  • edge over the line +34 pp — value pick
  • Expected score 2:3
  • Handicap F2 +1.5: score forecast 2:3 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 2.02).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Neftyanik Almetyevsk - CSK VVS Samara August 13, 2026

Hockey math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

  • Glicko: Neftyanik Almetyevsk 49.9% / CSK VVS Samara 50.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 8.1%
2 3.7%

Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.60 ↓ 1.20
1X2 X 4.50 ↑ 7.70
1X2 2 4.30 ↑ 8.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

11Wins4
3.3Goals on average1.7

Head-to-head matches: 15 · average total 4.9 (goals)

Team form

Neftyanik Almetyevsk
6-4WWWLLLWWWL
scored 3.0conceded 2.3
CSK VVS Samara
2-8LLLLLLWLWL
scored 2.2conceded 2.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 13.08.2026 15:30 UTC
Form 3 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model CSK VVS Samara 50%
💹 Market Draw 88%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Neftyanik Almetyevsk - CSK VVS Samara

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 3:3
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Neftyanik Almetyevsk 76.6% 49.9% market favourite
Draw 11.9% -
CSK VVS Samara 11.5% 50.1% Glicko contrarian
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model
P1 / P2 49.9% / 50.1% probabilities
Rating 1,438 / 1,500 Neftyanik Almetyevsk / CSK VVS Samara
RD 182 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,074-1,802 / 800-2,200 strength interval

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 3.20 Fonbet · line only
2 0 2.85 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.30 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.37 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.07 Fonbet · line only
Over 3 1.12 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.30 76.9%
7.90 12.7%
1.60 62.5%
3.35 29.9%
2.45 40.8%
9.00 11.1%
4.20 23.8%
9.00 11.1%
3.30 30.3%
3.20 31.3%
1.05 95.2%
2.20 45.5%
1.28 78.1%
1.48 67.6%
1.04 96.2%
1.19 84.0%
1.04 96.2%
2.85 35.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.07 93.5%
Over 3 1.12 89.3%
Over 3.5 1.18 84.8%
Over 4 1.20 83.3%
Over 4.5 1.23 81.3%
Over 5 1.55 64.5%
Over 5.5 1.15 87.0%
Over 6 2.25 44.4%
Over 6.5 3.25 30.8%
Over 7 3.55 28.2%
Over 7.5 2.00 50.0%
Over 8.5 7.70 13.0%
Under 2.5 6.60 15.2%
Under 3 5.30 18.9%
Under 3.5 4.30 23.3%
Under 4 3.90 25.6%
Under 4.5 3.75 26.7%
Under 5 2.25 44.4%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
11.50 8.7%
X 1.05 95.2%
25.00 4.0%
Match center
Neftyanik Almetyevsk
L L W W L
06.08 15:00 UTC+0 Russia. Friendlies
Neftyanik Almetyevsk 2:3 Ak Bars 🇷🇺Ak Bars 🇷🇺
13.05 14:00 UTC+0 VHL
Neftyanik Almetyevsk 1:2 Ugra Khanty-MansiyskUgra Khanty-Mansiysk
11.05 14:00 UTC+0 VHL
Neftyanik Almetyevsk 3:2 Ugra Khanty-MansiyskUgra Khanty-Mansiysk
08.05 14:00 UTC+0 Russia VKhL
Neftyanik Almetyevsk 4:0 KhK YugraKhK Yugra
03.05 14:00 UTC+0 VHL
Neftyanik Almetyevsk 2:5 Ugra Khanty-MansiyskUgra Khanty-Mansiysk
2 Wins
3 Losses
2.4 Scored
2.4 Conceded
40% Win percentage
CSK VVS Samara
L L W
06.08 15:00 UTC+0 Russia. Friendlies
CSK VVS Samara 2:3 Ak Bars 🇷🇺Ak Bars 🇷🇺
13.05 14:00 UTC+0 VHL
CSK VVS Samara 1:2 Ugra Khanty-MansiyskUgra Khanty-Mansiysk
11.05 14:00 UTC+0 VHL
CSK VVS Samara 3:2 Ugra Khanty-MansiyskUgra Khanty-Mansiysk
1 Wins
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.3 Conceded
33% Win percentage

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neftyanik Almetyevsk vs CSK VVS Samara?

By the PropickAI model, CSK VVS Samara is favoured — about 50% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Neftyanik Almetyevsk vs CSK VVS Samara?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to CSK VVS Samara. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Neftyanik Almetyevsk vs CSK VVS Samara start?

August 13, 2026.