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AI verdict

AI pick Neftekhimik win probability ~51%

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Neftekhimik. Full breakdown below.

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Russia. Friendly
Russia. Friendly International
14.08.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
14.08.2026 14:30 UTC
Finished

Russia. Friendly

International

Ak Bars - Neftekhimik

International Hockey
Stadium Tatneft-Arena (Kazan, Russia)
Ak Bars
Ak Bars
1 : 2
Finished
Neftekhimik
Neftekhimik

Ak Bars meet Neftekhimik on August 14, 2026 in the Russia. Friendly, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Ak Bars 1-0-0, Neftekhimik 1-0-0. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 49% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Neftekhimik — 51%

1 · Ak Bars49.2%
2 · Neftekhimik50.8%

Model estimate: win Ak Bars 49.2%, win Neftekhimik 50.8%. Model favourite — Neftekhimik.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Neftekhimik (odds3.65) Score 2:3 Handicap H2 +1 (odds1.72) ✓ confidence 51% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Ak Bars 🇷🇺: forma VP (1)
  • • Neftekhimik: forma V (1-0)
  • • Model backs Neftekhimik: probability 51% vs 27% on the line (odds 3.65)
  • • edge over the line +23 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 2:3
  • • Handicap F2 +1: score forecast 2:3 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.72).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ak Bars - Neftekhimik August 14, 2026

Hockey math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

  • Glicko: Ak Bars 49.2% / Neftekhimik 50.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 15.8%
1 3.0%
2 77.8%

Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.85 ↑ 1.90
1X2 X 4.20 ↑ 4.30
1X2 2 3.65 ↓ 3.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Stadium Tatneft-Arena (Kazan, Russia)
Start 14.08.2026 14:30 UTC
Form 10 matches
H2H 8
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Neftekhimik 51%
💹 Market Neftekhimik 78%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Ak Bars - Neftekhimik

hockey, Ak Bars - Neftekhimik, 14 avgusta 2026: Highlights matcha, schet 1 : 2, statistika i rezultaty, video goals. Friendlies (kluby) 2026. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Ak Bars - Neftekhimik, gde smotret pryamoy efir, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 8 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 50.8% fact: away hit / ROI 240.0% / Brier 0.483 / LogLoss 0.676
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 50.2% fact: away hit / ROI 240.0% / Brier 0.495 / LogLoss 0.688
Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ak Bars 50.0% 49.2% market favourite
Draw 22.1% -
Neftekhimik 27.9% 50.8% Glicko contrarian
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model
P1 / P2 49.2% / 50.8% probabilities
Rating 1,490 / 1,701 Ak Bars / Neftekhimik
RD 251 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 989-1,991 / 1,118-2,283 strength interval

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.11 Fonbet · no value · model 50.8%
X 4.50 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.72 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 3.90 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.06 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 2.07 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.19 Fonbet · line only
Over 3.5 2.40 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.20 83.3%
2.07 48.3%
4.10 24.4%
2.90 34.5%
8.00 12.5%
5.00 20.0%
6.40 15.6%
3.90 25.6%
2.95 33.9%
5.00 20.0%
9.00 11.1%
1.72 58.1%
1.20 83.3%
1.38 72.5%
1.06 94.3%
1.12 89.3%
1.10 90.9%
1.06 94.3%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.19 84.0%
Over 3.5 2.40 41.7%
Over 4 1.13 88.5%
Over 4.5 4.60 21.7%
Over 5 1.40 71.4%
Over 5.5 9.00 11.1%
Over 6 1.93 51.8%
Over 6.5 8.50 11.8%
Over 7 2.80 35.7%
Over 7.5 5.40 18.5%
Over 8 4.40 22.7%
Over 8.5 4.80 20.8%
Under 2.5 4.70 21.3%
Under 3.5 1.50 66.7%
Under 4 4.80 20.8%
Under 4.5 1.20 83.3%
Under 5 2.70 37.0%
Under 5.5 1.06 94.3%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
29.00 3.5%
X 4.50 22.2%
1.11 90.1%
Match center
Lineup summary
  • 1 vr Vyacheslav Peksa
  • 40 vr Aleksandr Stolpechenkov
  • 4 zsch Daniil Chetverikov
  • 23 zsch Igor Bardin
  • 28 zsch Stepan Terekhov
  • 33 zsch Albert Yarullin
  • 49 zsch Nikita Evseev
  • 75 zsch Aleksandr Ivanov
  • 76 zsch Rashit Samigullin
  • 9 np Timofey Zhulin
Ak Bars

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Neftekhimik

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

SStats Market - Form - H2H - Bookmakers
Match center
Ak Bars
W
06.08 15:00 UTC Russia. Friendlies
Ak Bars 3:2 Neftyanik AlmetevskNeftyanik Almetevsk
1 Wins
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Neftekhimik
W
29.07 15:00 UTC Russia. Friendlies
Neftekhimik 4:1 KhK Chelny
1 Wins
0 Losses
4.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAk Bars - Neftekhimik

Ak Bars
0 matches total
Neftekhimik
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
2026 Fonbet Championship KKhL Ak Bars 6 : 1 Neftekhimik 13.01.
Event
2026 Fonbet Championship KKhL Ak Bars 0 : 2 Neftekhimik 07.12.
Event
2025 Fonbet Championship KKhL Neftekhimik 1 : 3 Ak Bars 21.11.
Event
2025 Fonbet Championship KKhL Neftekhimik 2 : 3 Ak Bars 10.11.
Event
2025 Fonbet Championship KKhL Neftekhimik 1 : 4 Ak Bars 17.09.
Event
2025 Fonbet Championship KKhL Ak Bars 1 : 2 Neftekhimik 30.08.
Event
2025 Friendlies (kluby) Neftekhimik 3 : 5 Ak Bars 14.08.
Event
2025 Friendlies (kluby) Ak Bars 4 : 1 Neftekhimik 21.02.
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Ak Bars
Data 8 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Neftekhimik
Ak Bars Team comparison Neftekhimik
1 Games 1
1 Wins 1
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
4 Scored 4
3 Conceded 1
2 Points 2
35 Broski v stvor 0
1 Games 1
1 Wins 1
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
4 Scored 4
3 Conceded 1

Ak Bars Neftekhimik 1 Games 1 Wins 1 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 4 Scored 4 3 Conceded 1 2 Points 2 35 Broski v stvor 0 Sleduyuschiy match 18.12.2026 Fonbet Championship KKhL Ak Bars –:– Neftekhimik Goly Evgeniy Mityakin 0:1 04:22 5x5 Kirill Semenov 1 39:22 5x5 Rafael Bikmullin 1:2 42:31 5x5 Vratari Aleksandr Stolpechenkov 00- Vratari Filipp Dolganov 00-

More predictions

Ak Bars – Sibir 05.09 Neftekhimik – Shanghai Dragons 06.09 Chelmet Chelyabinsk – Magnitka 15.08 HC Izhstal – Molot Perm 15.08 MKhK Sokol Novocheboksarsk – HK Samara 15.08 SKA St. Petersburg – Avtomobilist 15.08

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ak Bars vs Neftekhimik?

By the PropickAI model, Neftekhimik is favoured — about 51% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Ak Bars vs Neftekhimik?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Neftekhimik. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Ak Bars vs Neftekhimik start?

August 14, 2026.