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AI verdict

AI pick Mora win probability ~51% best odds 2.80

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Mora. Full breakdown below.

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Sweden. Friendly
Sweden. Friendly International
14.08.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
14.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Sweden. Friendly

Mora - Leksands

International Hockey
Mora
Mora
3 : 1
Finished
Leksands
Leksands

Mora face Leksands on August 14, 2026 in the Sweden. Friendly, International.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 51% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Mora — 51%

1 · Mora50.8%
2 · Leksands49.2%

Model estimate: win Mora 50.8%, win Leksands 49.2%. Model favourite — Mora.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Mora (odds2.85) Score 3:2 Under 5.5 (odds1.83) Handicap H1 +1 (odds1.62) ✓ confidence 51% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Mura: forma V (1-0)
  • • Leksand 🇸🇪: forma V (1-0)
  • • Model backs Mura: probability 51% vs 35% on the line (odds 2.85)
  • • edge over the line +16 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 3:2
  • • Total: Under 5.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
  • • at line 5.5 (odds 1.83)
  • • Handicap F1 +1: score forecast 3:2 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.62).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mora - Leksands August 14, 2026

Hockey math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leksands.

Line favourite Fonbet: Leksands. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.80 / X 4.05 / 2 1.97
  • Glicko: Mora 50.8% / X - / Leksands 49.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.2%
1 32.1%
X 22.2%
2 45.7%

Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.90 ↓ 2.80
1X2 X 4.40 ↓ 4.05
1X2 2 1.85 ↑ 1.97

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Market 1 32.1% @ 2.80 / X 22.2% @ 4.05 / 2 45.7% @ 1.97
Form 2 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Mora 51%
💹 Market Leksands 46%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Mora - Leksands

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 3:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 50.8% fact: home hit / ROI 180.0% / Brier 0.484 / LogLoss 0.677
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 50.2% fact: home hit / ROI 180.0% / Brier 0.495 / LogLoss 0.689
Market and Glicko

Hockey math model. The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Mora 32.1% 50.8% Glicko contrarian
Draw 22.2% -
Leksands 45.7% 49.2% market favourite
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Hockey math model
P1 / P2 50.8% / 49.2% probabilities
Rating 1,739 / 1,623 Mora / Leksands
RD 291 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,157-2,320 / 1,041-2,204 strength interval

The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.97 Fonbet · no value · model 49.2%
X 4.05 Fonbet · line only
1 2.80 Fonbet · value +42.3% · model 50.8%
Handicap
2 -1 1.25 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 2.35 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.58 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 3.65 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 3.5 1.23 Fonbet · line only
Over 4 1.30 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.52 65.8%
1.40 71.4%
1.25 80.0%
1.20 83.3%
3.65 27.4%
4.05 24.7%
5.00 20.0%
5.50 18.2%
2.20 45.5%
2.35 42.6%
2.70 37.0%
3.60 27.8%
4.00 25.0%
1.25 80.0%
1.20 83.3%
1.14 87.7%
1.11 90.1%
1.58 63.3%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 3.5 1.23 81.3%
Over 4 1.30 76.9%
Over 4.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 5 1.78 56.2%
Over 5.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 6 2.70 37.0%
Over 6.5 3.15 31.8%
Over 7 4.40 22.7%
Over 7.5 4.80 20.8%
Under 3.5 3.75 26.7%
Under 4 3.20 31.3%
Under 4.5 2.30 43.5%
Under 5 1.92 52.1%
Under 5.5 1.65 60.6%
Under 6 1.40 71.4%
Under 6.5 1.30 76.9%
Under 7 1.17 85.5%
Under 7.5 1.14 87.7%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
2.80 35.7%
X 4.05 24.7%
1.97 50.8%
Match center
Mora
W
12.08 16:00 UTC Sweden. Friendlies
Mora 5:1 Estersund IK
1 Wins
0 Losses
5.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Leksands
W
07.08 16:00 UTC+0 World: Club Friendlies
Leksands 4:3 VesterosVesteros
1 Wins
0 Losses
4.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMora - Leksands

Mora
0 matches total
Leksands
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mora vs Leksands?

By the PropickAI model, Leksands is favoured — about 51% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Mora vs Leksands?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Leksands. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Mora vs Leksands start?

August 14, 2026.