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AI verdict

AI pick Dougaz A win probability ~66% confidence High best odds 1.40

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Dougaz A. Full breakdown below.

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ATP Challenger. Astana
ATP Challenger. Astana
14.08.2026 07:30 UTC Match prediction

Cui Jie - Dougaz A

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Astana
ATP Challenger. Astana hard 14.08.2026 07:30 UTC Finished
14.08.2026 07:30 UTC Finished
C
Cui Jie
Rank #450 Elo 102
57Average Form
W W L W L L L L
D
Dougaz A
Rank #690 Elo 49
67Average Form
W L L L W L L W
1:2
Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Cui Jie Dougaz A
Win % 59.3% 61.9%
Hard % 59.5% 63.5%
Clay % 58.3% 60.2%
Grass % 0% 16.7%
Deciding set % 50% 50.4%
Tie-breaks % 44.3% 50%
Titles (total) 6 13
Last 10 WWLWLLLWLL WWLWWWLWWW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#450 Rating #690
28 Age 29
1.83m Height (cm) 1.88m
72kg Weight (kg) 82kg
Right Hand Left
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Cui Jie Dougaz A
Aces per match 3.75 7.64
Double faults per match 2.38 3.64
Breaks per match 1.41 16.5

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Jie Cui
Rank:450 Elo: 102
W W L W L L L L
Aziz Dougaz
Rank:690 Elo: 49
W L L L W L L W
Elo favourite:Cui Jie (edge +53 Elo)

Hard

Jie CuiAziz Dougaz
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 52.9% 18 / 34 Matches 77.8% 21 / 27 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 50.0% 22 / 44 Matches 77.8% 21 / 27 Matches

Clay

Jie CuiAziz Dougaz
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 0.0% 0 / 3 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches 0.0% 0 / 3 Matches

Grass

Jie CuiAziz Dougaz
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz
H2H wins 1 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Sets 2 (66.7%) 1 (33.3%)
Wins this year 56.8% 21 / 37 Matches 66.7% 22 / 33 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 52.1% 25 / 48 Matches 66.7% 22 / 33 Matches
Current rank 450 690

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz
Prize money (career) $138,256 USD $395,683 USD
Rating 450 690
Age 28 29
Height 1.83m 1.88m
Weight 72kg 82kg
Playing hand Right-handed Left-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz
Match Wins 57 % 67 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 53 % 68 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) N/A 50 %
Wins in Straight Sets 49 % 45 %
Wins From Behind 16 % 21 %
Won At Least 1 Set 73 % 82 %
Set 1 Win 62 % 61 %
Set 2 Win 59 % 67 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
Sep 29 2024 M25 Fuzhou ITF Men (Hard) Jie Cui 2 – 1 Aziz Dougaz

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.49 10 9.75
Over 6.5 94 % 94 % 94 %
Over 7.5 82 % 87 % 85 %
Over 8.5 71 % 77 % 74 %
Over 9.5 44 % 58 % 51 %
Over 10.5 21 % 32 % 27 %
Over 11.5 21 % 32 % 27 %

Aces

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz Match total
Aces Per Match 3.75 7.64 11.39
Most Aces in a match 19 % 79 % N/A
1+ 100 % 100 % 100 %
2+ 88 % 100 % 100 %
3+ 75 % 86 % 97 %
4+ 44 % 79 % 94 %
5+ 25 % 79 % 94 %

Breaks

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.41 16.5 17.91
Over 0.5 69 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 6 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 0 % 100 % 85 %
Over 3.5 0 % 100 % 53 %
Over 4.5 0 % 100 % 53 %
Over 5.5 0 % 100 % 50 %

Tie-breaks

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.44 0.35 0.4
Over 0.5 35 % 29 % 32 %
Over 1.5 9 % 6 % 8 %
Under 0.5 65 % 71 % 32 %
Under 1.5 91 % 94 % 8 %

Double faults

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.38 3.64 6.02
Over 0.5 (1+) 94 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 63 % 79 % 100 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 50 % 64 % 97 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 19 % 57 % 84 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 13 % 36 % 64 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 0 % 21 % 57 %

Net points

Jie Cui Aziz Dougaz Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.23 6.9 14.13
Over 4.5 (5+) 64 % 40 % 52 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 55 % 40 % 48 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 45 % 40 % 43 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 27 % 40 % 34 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 27 % 40 % 34 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 27 % 20 % 24 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.95 32.2% BetBoom
P2 1.40 67.8% BetBoom

Cui Jie meet Dougaz A on August 14, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Astana.

Recent form (W-D-L): Cui Jie 2-0-0, Dougaz A 1-0-0. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 34% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Dougaz A — 66%

1 · Cui Jie34.3%
market 32%
2 · Dougaz A ✓ Pick65.7%
market 68%

Model estimate: win Cui Jie 34.3%, win Dougaz A 65.7%. Model favourite — Dougaz A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Dougaz A (odds1.48) Score 1:2 confidence 62% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Tsuy Ts
  • • 🇨🇳 — Dugaz A
  • • (Tun) (tennis)
  • • Tsuy Ts
  • • 🇨🇳: forma VVPVV (4-1)
  • • Dugaz A
  • • (Tun): forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • • Model backs Dugaz A
  • • (Tun): probability 62% vs 68% on the line (odds 1.48)
  • • no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cui Jie - Dougaz A August 14, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Dougaz A.

Line favourite market consensus: Dougaz A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.95 / 2 1.40
  • Glicko: Cui Jie 34.3% / Dougaz A 65.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.4% 5 books · best price +2.2%
1 32.5%
2 ✓ Pick 67.5%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Cui Jie
32%
2.95
Dougaz A
68%
1.40
Total
Over 22.5
48%
1.97
Under 22.5
52%
1.79

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 Astana, Kazakhstan

1/16-finals (R32)
Bar Biryukov, Petr2
Ichikawa, Taisei0
Ouakaa, Aziz0
Cui, Jie2
Dougaz, Aziz2
Deckers, Alec1
Ursu, Vadym0
Dhamne, Manas2
Fomin, Sergey0
Zhukov, Maxim0
Samrej, Kasidit2
Isomura, Kokoro1
Shin, Sanhui1
Arutiunian, Erik2
Imamura, Masamichi2
Ghibaudo, Antoine0
Sun, Fajing2
Nurlanuly, Zangar1
Pankin, Semen2
Palan, Dominik0
Kumasaka, Takuya2
Sinclair, Colin0
Matsuda, Koki0
Matsuoka, Hayato2
Ratti, Lucio2
Sach, Tai Leonard0
Sultanov, Khumoyun2
Binda, Alexander0
Omarkhanov, Amir0
Zhukayev, Beibit2
Rawat, Sidharth0
Alkaya, Mert2
1/8-finals (R16)
Bar Biryukov, Petr0
Cui, Jie2
Dougaz, Aziz0
Dhamne, Manas0
Fomin, Sergey0
Samrej, Kasidit0
Arutiunian, Erik0
Imamura, Masamichi2
Sun, Fajing2
Pankin, Semen1
Kumasaka, Takuya0
Matsuoka, Hayato2
Ratti, Lucio0
Sultanov, Khumoyun2
Zhukayev, Beibit0
Alkaya, Mert2
Quarterfinals
Cui, Jie0
Qf20
Qf30
Imamura, Masamichi0
Sun, Fajing0
Matsuoka, Hayato0
Sultanov, Khumoyun0
Alkaya, Mert0
Semifinals
WQF10
WQF20
WQF30
WQF40
Final
WSF10
WSF20

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Start 14.08.2026 07:30 UTC
Market 1 32.2% @ 2.95 / 2 67.8% @ 1.40
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Dougaz A 66%
💹 Market Dougaz A 68%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Cui Jie - Dougaz A

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 2/1 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 20
Metric Cui Jie Dougaz A SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/0 0/0 final
Points na prieme 0% (0/1) 0% (0/0) final
Eysy 0 0 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 0/0 0/0 final
Dvoynye oshibki 0 0 final
Pervaya podacha, % 0% 100% final
Points na pervoy podache 0% (0/0) 100% (1/1) final
Points na vtoroy podache 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 65.7% fact: away hit / ROI 40.0% / Brier 0.235 / LogLoss 0.420
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 51.9% fact: away hit / ROI 40.0% / Brier 0.463 / LogLoss 0.656
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cui Jie 32.5% 39.9% market and model agree
Dougaz A 67.5% 60.1% market and model agree
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko34.3% · +Elo prior (weight0.35).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 34.3% / 65.7% probabilities
Rating 1,888 / 1,930 Cui Jie / Dougaz A
RD 193 / 136 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,503-2,273 / 1,658-2,203 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 65.7%
1 2.88 market consensus · no value · model 34.3%
Total
Over 10.5 3.20 market consensus · line only
Over 2.5 2.38 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.97 50.8% 2.00 50.0% —
1.86 53.8% 1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6%
1.76 56.8% 1.73 57.8% —
1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
Over 2.5 — — 2.38 42.0%
Over 8.5 — — 1.24 80.7%
Over 9.5 — — 1.77 56.5%
Over 10.5 — — 3.20 31.3%
Over 21.5 — — 1.68 59.5%
Over 22.5 1.97 50.8% 1.93 51.8% 1.94 51.6%
Over 23.5 — — 2.17 46.1%
Under 2.5 — — 1.54 64.9%
Under 8.5 — — 3.75 26.7%
Under 9.5 — — 1.98 50.5%
Under 10.5 — — 1.32 75.8%
Under 21.5 — — 2.06 48.5%
Under 22.5 1.76 56.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.79 55.9%
Under 23.5 — — 1.63 61.4%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
2.95 33.9% 2.85 35.1% 2.88 34.7% 2.88 34.7% 2.85 35.1%
1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.37 73.0%
Match center
Cui Jie
W W
13.08 06:00 UTC Challenger Men - Singles: Astana (Kazakhstan), hard
Cui Jie 2:0 Bar-Biryukov P. (World)Bar-Biryukov P. (World)
11.08 05:00 UTC Challenger Men - Singles: Astana (Kazakhstan), hard
Cui Jie 2:0 Ouaka A. (Tun)
2 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
0.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage
Dougaz A
W
11.08 09:30 UTC Challenger Men - Singles: Astana (Kazakhstan), hard
Dougaz A 2:1 Deckers A. 🇳🇱Deckers A. 🇳🇱
1 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cui Jie vs Dougaz A?

By the PropickAI model, Dougaz A is favoured — about 66% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Cui Jie vs Dougaz A?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Dougaz A. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Cui Jie vs Dougaz A start?

August 14, 2026.