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ATP Challenger. Lexington
ATP Challenger. Lexington International
04.08.2026 19:20 UTC Match prediction

Echargui M - Johnson Spencer

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Lexington
ATP Challenger. Lexington grass 04.08.2026 19:20 UTC Finished
04.08.2026 19:20 UTC Finished
Echargui M
Echargui M
L W L L L
Johnson Spencer
Johnson Spencer
W W L L W
0:2 4:6 3:6
1 2 GP
Echargui M 4 3 0
Johnson Spencer 6 6 2
1 2
Odds
P1 14.00 10.3% BetBoom
P2 1.61 89.7% BetBoom
Coverage: grass
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Echargui M meet Johnson Spencer on August 4, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Lexington, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Echargui M 1-0-4, Johnson Spencer 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 39% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Johnson Spencer — 61%

Pure model vs market (2 · Johnson Spencer): model 50% · market 62% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Echargui M39.1%
market38%
2 · Johnson Spencer ✓ Pick60.9%
market62%

Model estimate: win Echargui M 39.1%, win Johnson Spencer 60.9%. Model favourite — Johnson Spencer.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Johnson Spencer (odds1.88) Score 1:2 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Eshargui M: forma VP (1)
  • • Dzhonson Spenser: forma VVPPV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Dzhonson Spenser: probability 50% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.88)
  • • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Echargui M - Johnson Spencer August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Johnson Spencer.

Line favourite Fonbet: Johnson Spencer. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 14.00 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Echargui M 39.1% / Johnson Spencer 60.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.7% 4 books · best price +8.4%
1 37.6%
2 ✓ Pick 62.4%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.88 ↑ 14.00
Winner 2 1.88 ↓ 1.01

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated04.08.2026 18:09 UTC
1 38%
2 62% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: TM 22.5 Bet:P2
Per AI data Form:LW / WWLLW H2H: 0-0 Injuries:no
AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 38% 62% 0:2 TM 22.5 P2
Match center
Start 04.08.2026 19:20 UTC
Market 1 6.7% @ 14.00 / 2 93.3% @ 1.01
Coverage grass
Form 5 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Johnson Spencer 62%
📐 Math model Johnson Spencer 61%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Echargui M - Johnson Spencer

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Echargui M Johnson Spencer Result
Set 1 4 6 4:6
Set 2 3 6 3:6
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 60.9% fact: away hit / ROI 61.0% / Brier 0.305 / LogLoss 0.496
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 51.3% fact: away hit / ROI 61.0% / Brier 0.474 / LogLoss 0.667
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Echargui M 37.9% 39.1%
Johnson Spencer 62.1% 60.9% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 39.1% / 60.9% probabilities
Rating 1,540 / 1,616 Echargui M / Johnson Spencer
RD 258 / 185 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,024-2,056 / 1,247-1,985 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 60.9%
1 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 39.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 18.5 1.15 Fonbet · line only
Over 19.5 10.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.91 52.4% — —
1.83 54.6% 1.92 52.1% —
1.79 55.9% 1.90 52.6% —
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.48 67.6%
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.02 98.0%
— — 1.02 98.0%
— — 4.40 22.7%
1.81 55.3% — 1.65 60.6%
1.89 52.9% 1.78 56.2% 1.65 60.6%
1.94 51.6% 1.79 55.9% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 18.5 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 19.5 — — 10.00 10.0%
Over 20.5 — — 11.50 8.7%
Over 21.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 22.5 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.78 56.2%
Over 23.5 — 1.96 51.0% 2.02 49.5%
Over 24.5 — — 2.07 48.3%
Over 25.5 — — 1.92 52.1%
Under 18.5 — — 4.40 22.7%
Under 19.5 — — 1.02 98.0%
Under 20.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Under 21.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Under 22.5 1.81 55.3% 1.78 56.2% —
Under 23.5 — 1.75 57.1% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
2.20 45.5% 2.44 41.0% 14.00 7.1% 2.48 40.3%
1.61 62.1% 1.49 67.1% 1.01 99.0% 1.48 67.6%
Match center
Echargui M
L W L L L
2026-07-26 2026 Washington, USA, Qualifying
Echargui M Martin Andres 2:0 Echargui M
2026-07-25 2026 Washington, USA, Qualifying
Echargui M Lee Jordan 0:2 Echargui M
2026-07-20 2026 Bloomfield Hills, USA
Echargui M Echargui M 0:2 Harris L
2026-07-14 2026 Lincoln, USA
Echargui M Suresh D 2:1 Echargui M
2026-06-25 2026 Wimbledon, London, GB, Qualifying, 3rd Round
Echargui M Gaston H 3:1 Echargui M
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.8 Sets won
1.8 Sets lost
20% Win percentage
Johnson Spencer
W W L L W
2026-08-03 2026 Lexington, USA, Qualifying
Colby R 1:2 Johnson Spencer Johnson Spencer
2026-08-02 2026 Lexington, USA, Qualifying
Forbes M 0:2 Johnson Spencer Johnson Spencer
2026-07-21 2026 Bloomfield Hills, USA
Johnson Spencer 0:2 Wong C Johnson Spencer
2026-07-18 2026 Lincoln, USA
Tomic B 2:1 Johnson Spencer Johnson Spencer
2026-07-17 2026 Lincoln, USA
Wong C 0:2 Johnson Spencer Johnson Spencer
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage