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ATP Challenger. Lexington
ATP Challenger. Lexington International
04.08.2026 18:38 UTC Match prediction

Sakamoto R - Mayo A

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Lexington
ATP Challenger. Lexington grass 04.08.2026 18:38 UTC Finished
04.08.2026 18:38 UTC Finished
Sakamoto R
Sakamoto R
L W L W W
Mayo A
Mayo A
W W L W W
2:0 7:6 7:5
1 2 GP
Sakamoto R 7 7 2
Mayo A 6 5 0
1 2
Odds
P1 1.69 68.4% BetBoom
P2 3.65 31.7% BetBoom
Coverage: grass
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Sakamoto R take on Mayo A on August 4, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Lexington, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Sakamoto R 3-0-2, Mayo A 4-0-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 54% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Sakamoto R — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · Sakamoto R): model 42% · market 55% Δ −13 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Sakamoto R54.1%
2 · Mayo A45.9%

Model estimate: win Sakamoto R 54.1%, win Mayo A 45.9%. Model favourite — Sakamoto R.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Mayo A (odds2.63) Score 1:2 confidence 58% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Sakamoto R: forma P (0-1)
  • • Mayo E: forma VVPVP (3-2)
  • • Model backs Mayo E: probability 58% vs 38% on the line (odds 2.63)
  • • edge over the line +20 pp — value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sakamoto R - Mayo A August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sakamoto R.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sakamoto R. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.25 / 2 3.65
  • Glicko: Sakamoto R 54.1% / Mayo A 45.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.7% 4 books · best price +1.2%
1 55.4%
2 44.6%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.40 ↓ 1.25
Winner 2 2.70 ↑ 3.65

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated04.08.2026 18:11 UTC
1 53% ✓ favourite
2 47%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:Over 22.5
Per AI data H2H: 0:0
AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 53% 47% 2:1 Over 22.5 Over 22.5
Match center
Start 04.08.2026 18:38 UTC
Market 1 74.5% @ 1.25 / 2 25.5% @ 3.65
Coverage grass
Form 4 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Sakamoto R 53%
📐 Math model Sakamoto R 54%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Sakamoto R - Mayo A

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Sakamoto R Mayo A Result
Set 1 7 6 7:6
Set 2 7 5 7:5
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 54.1% fact: home hit / Brier 0.421 / LogLoss 0.614
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 50.5% fact: home hit / Brier 0.490 / LogLoss 0.683
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sakamoto R 55.4% 54.1% market and model agree
Mayo A 44.6% 45.9%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 54.1% / 45.9% probabilities
Rating 1,322 / 1,638 Sakamoto R / Mayo A
RD 292 / 170 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 737-1,906 / 1,298-1,979 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.65 Fonbet · weak value +67.5% · model 45.9%
1 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 54.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.65 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.67 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.25 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.08 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 21.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Over 22.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.25 80.0%
1.89 52.9% 1.87 53.5% —
1.89 52.9% 1.88 53.2% —
2.05 48.8% — —
— — 1.67 59.9%
1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%
1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 2.00 50.0%
1.71 58.5% — —
— — 3.65 27.4%
— — 3.05 32.8%
— — 1.35 74.1%
— — 1.32 75.8%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 21.5 — — 1.50 66.7%
Over 22.5 1.76 56.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.82 55.0%
Over 23.5 1.97 50.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.80 55.6%
Over 24.5 — — 1.68 59.5%
Over 25.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
Over 26.5 — — 2.08 48.1%
Over 27.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
Over 28.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 29.5 — — 1.92 52.1%
Over 30.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Under 22.5 1.97 50.8% 1.93 51.8% —
Under 23.5 1.76 56.8% 1.76 56.8% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.69 59.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.67 59.9%
2.07 48.3% 2.07 48.3% 3.65 27.4% 2.08 48.1%
Match center
Sakamoto R
L W L W W
2026-07-02 2026 Cary, USA
Sakamoto R Sakamoto R 0:2 Legout T
2026-06-30 2026 Cary, USA
Sakamoto R Sakamoto R 2:1 Leroux J
2026-06-25 2026 Wimbledon, London, GB, Qualifying, 3rd Round
Sakamoto R Faria J 3:1 Sakamoto R
2026-06-24 2026 Wimbledon, London, GB, Qualifying, 1st - 2nd Round
Sakamoto R Dougaz A 0:2 Sakamoto R
2026-06-22 2026 Wimbledon, London, GB, Qualifying, 1st - 2nd Round
Sakamoto R Matusevich A 1:2 Sakamoto R
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Mayo A
W W L W W
2026-08-03 2026 Lexington, USA, Qualifying
Pacheco Mendez R 0:2 Mayo A Mayo A
2026-08-02 2026 Lexington, USA, Qualifying
Mayo A 2:1 Langmo C Mayo A
2026-07-29 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Mayo A 1:2 Duckworth J Mayo A
2026-07-27 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico, Qualifying
Mayo A 2:0 Pascual Ferra R Mayo A
2026-07-26 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico, Qualifying
King Evan 0:2 Mayo A Mayo A
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historySakamoto R - Mayo A

Sakamoto R
0 matches total
Mayo A
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history