Who is the favourite in Walters M vs Ponchet M?

By the PropickAI model, Walters M is favoured — about 52% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Walters M vs Ponchet M?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Walters M. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

AI verdict

AI pick Walters M win probability ~52% best odds 1.08

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Walters M. Full breakdown below.

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ATP Challenger Roehampton, Great Britain Men Singles

16.08.2026 09:30 UTC Match prediction

Walters M - Ponchet M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

Tennis ATP Challenger Roehampton, Great Britain Men Singles

ATP Challenger Roehampton, Great Britain Men Singles hard 16.08.2026 09:30 UTC Finished

16.08.2026 09:30 UTC Finished

Walters M

Rank #966 Elo 23

43Struggling Form

L W W L W W W W

Ponchet M

Rank #784 Elo 39

48Struggling Form

W W L L W W W L

2:0 7:6 7:6

1 2 GP

Walters M 7 7 2

Ponchet M 6 6 0

1 2

Coverage: hard

Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

	Walters, Marcus	Ponchet M
Win %	57.9%	44.5%
Hard %	56.7%	45.9%
Clay %	71.4%	36.2%
Grass %	66.7%	0%
Deciding set %	34.6%	38.1%
Tie-breaks %	55.2%	40%
Titles (total)	1	1
Last 10	LLWLLWWLWL	LWWLLLLLWW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -

#966 Rating #784

28 Age 22

- Height (cm) 1.96m

- Weight (kg) 78kg

Right Hand Left

- Seed -

hard Coverage hard

0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

	Walters M	Ponchet M
Aces per match	6.60	3.33
Double faults per match	1.6	4
Breaks per match	2	1.5

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Marcus Walters

Rank:966 Elo: 23

L W W L W W W W

Matt Ponchet

Rank:784 Elo: 39

W W L L W W W L

Elo favourite:Ponchet M (edge +16 Elo)

Hard

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year	39.1% 9 / 23 Matches	50.0% 10 / 20 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months	46.0% 17 / 37 Matches	53.3% 16 / 30 Matches

Clay

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year	50.0% 1 / 2 Matches	0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months	50.0% 1 / 2 Matches	0.0% 0 / 1 Matches

Grass

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year	66.7% 2 / 3 Matches	N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months	66.7% 2 / 3 Matches	N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet
H2H wins	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Sets	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Wins this year	42.9% 12 / 28 Matches	47.6% 10 / 21 Matches
Wins in 12 mo.	47.6% 20 / 42 Matches	51.6% 16 / 31 Matches
Current rank	966	784

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet
Prize money (career)	$11,138 USD	$11,402 USD
Rating	966	784
Age	28	22
Height	—	1.96m
Weight	—	78kg
Playing hand	Right-handed	Left-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet
Match Wins	43 %	48 %
Match Wins (3 Sets)	43 %	48 %
Wins in Straight Sets	18 %	43 %
Wins From Behind	11 %	0 %
Won At Least 1 Set	64 %	67 %
Set 1 Win	46 %	62 %
Set 2 Win	36 %	48 %
Set 3 Win	54 %	20 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet	Match total
Average Games in a Set	9.46	9.24	9.35
Over 6.5	96 %	95 %	96 %
Over 7.5	86 %	81 %	84 %
Over 8.5	68 %	62 %	65 %
Over 9.5	39 %	33 %	36 %
Over 10.5	21 %	19 %	20 %
Over 11.5	21 %	19 %	20 %

Aces

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet	Match total
Aces Per Match	6.60	3.33	9.93
Most Aces in a match	60 %	67 %	N/A
1+	100 %	100 %	100 %
2+	100 %	100 %	100 %
3+	100 %	67 %	100 %
4+	80 %	67 %	74 %
5+	80 %	0 %	57 %

Breaks

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet	Match total
Breaks Per Match	2	1.5	3.5
Over 0.5	100 %	100 %	100 %
Over 1.5	40 %	67 %	100 %
Over 2.5	40 %	0 %	100 %
Over 3.5	0 %	0 %	50 %
Over 4.5	0 %	0 %	0 %
Over 5.5	0 %	0 %	0 %

Tie-breaks

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet	Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match	0.46	0.33	0.4
Over 0.5	46 %	29 %	38 %
Over 1.5	0 %	5 %	2 %
Under 0.5	54 %	71 %	38 %
Under 1.5	100 %	95 %	2 %

Double faults

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet	Match total
Double Faults Per Match	1.6	4	5.6
Over 0.5 (1+)	80 %	100 %	100 %
Over 1.5 (2+)	60 %	67 %	100 %
Over 2.5 (3+)	20 %	67 %	84 %
Over 3.5 (4+)	0 %	67 %	74 %
Over 4.5 (5+)	0 %	67 %	64 %
Over 5.5 (6+)	0 %	33 %	54 %

Net points

	Marcus Walters	Matt Ponchet	Match total
Net Points Won Per Match	8.25	11.75	20
Over 4.5 (5+)	100 %	100 %	100 %
Over 5.5 (6+)	100 %	100 %	100 %
Over 6.5 (7+)	50 %	100 %	75 %
Over 7.5 (8+)	50 %	100 %	75 %
Over 8.5 (9+)	50 %	100 %	75 %
Over 9.5 (10+)	50 %	100 %	75 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds

P1 1.75 53.3% BetBoom

P2 2.00 46.7% BetBoom

Walters M meet Ponchet M on August 16, 2026 in the ATP Challenger Roehampton, Great Britain Men Singles.

Recent form (W-D-L): Walters M 4-0-1, Ponchet M 1-0-4. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 52% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Walters M — 52%

1 · Walters M52.0%

2 · Ponchet M48.0%

Model estimate: win Walters M 52.0%, win Ponchet M 48.0%. Model favourite — Walters M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Ponchet M (odds1.81) Score 1:2 confidence 52% ✗ outcome missed

• Walters M
• 🇬🇧 — Ponshe M
• 🇫🇷 (tennis)
• Walters M
• 🇬🇧: forma PPPVP (1-4)
• Ponshe M
• 🇫🇷: forma VVPP (2)
• Model backs Ponshe M
• 🇫🇷: probability 52% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
• no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Walters M - Ponchet M August 16, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Walters M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Walters M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.08 / 2 6.10
Glicko: Walters M 52.0% / Ponchet M 48.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 7.9% 4 books

1 53.0%

2 47.0%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.93 ↓ 1.75

Winner 2 1.82 ↑ 2.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Walters M

53%

1.75

Ponchet M

47%

6.10

Handicap

Walters M (0.5)

51%

1.86

Ponchet M (0.5)

49%

1.91

Total

Over 21.5

52%

1.79

Under 21.5

48%

1.95

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Match center

Start 16.08.2026 09:30 UTC

Market 1 85.0% @ 1.08 / 2 15.0% @ 6.10

Coverage hard

Form 6 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Walters M 52%

💹 Market Walters M 53%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Walters M - Ponchet M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 2:0

Events 0

Statistics 20

Set Walters M Ponchet M Result

Set 1 7 6 7:6

Set 2 7 6 7:6

Metric Walters M Ponchet M SStats

Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/0 0/0 final

Points na prieme 0% (0/0) 0% (0/2) final

Eysy 0 0 final

Breyk-poynty otygrany 0/0 0/0 final

Dvoynye oshibki 0 0 final

Pervaya podacha, % 100% 0% final

Points na pervoy podache 100% (2/2) 0% (0/0) final

Points na vtoroy podache 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0) final

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 52.0% fact: home hit / ROI 75.0% / Brier 0.461 / LogLoss 0.654

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 50.2% fact: home hit / ROI 75.0% / Brier 0.495 / LogLoss 0.688

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Walters M 53.0% 51.0% market and model agree

Ponchet M 47.0% 49.0% market and model agree

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko52.0% · +Elo prior (weight0.47).

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 52.0% / 48.0% probabilities

Rating 1,287 / 1,572 Walters, Marcus / Ponchet M

RD 196 / 208 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 894-1,679 / 1,156-1,987 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.10 Fonbet · weak value +192.7% · model 48.0%

1 1.08 Fonbet · no value · model 52.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 6.10 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.08 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 20.5 1.62 Fonbet · line only

Over 21.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
	1.83 54.6%	1.86 53.8%
	1.08 92.6%	1.83 54.6%
	1.12 89.3%	1.92 52.1%
	4.00 25.0%	—
	2.90 34.5%	—
	1.87 53.5%	1.91 52.4%
	—	1.82 55.0%
	6.10 16.4%	1.88 53.2%
	5.00 20.0%	—
	1.19 84.0%	—
	1.33 75.2%	—

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.07 93.5%
	1.33 75.2%
	2.95 33.9%
	6.20 16.1%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 20.5	1.62 61.7%
Over 21.5	1.75 57.1%
Over 22.5	1.73 57.8%
Over 23.5	1.47 68.0%
Over 24.5	1.75 57.1%
Over 25.5	1.70 58.8%
Over 26.5	2.95 33.9%
Over 27.5	1.85 54.1%
Over 28.5	2.00 50.0%
Over 29.5	2.00 50.0%
Over 30.5	1.77 56.5%
Over 31.5	1.80 55.6%
Over 32.5	1.73 57.8%
Over 33.5	3.15 31.8%
Under 20.5	2.15 46.5%
Under 21.5	1.95 51.3%
Under 22.5	2.00 50.0%
Under 23.5	2.50 40.0%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 2.5	2.95 33.9%
Under 2.5	1.33 75.2%

Match center

Walters M

L W W W W

2026-07-07 2026 Nottingham 3, Great Britain

Walters M Walters M 0:2 Vales A

2026-07-06 2026 Nottingham 3, Great Britain, Qualifying

Walters M Delaney Jesse 1:2 Walters M

2026-07-05 2026 Nottingham 3, Great Britain, Qualifying

Walters M Melnic V 0:2 Walters M

2026-04-04

Walters M Walters M 2:0 Wojnar B

2026-04-02 2026 Krakow Men 03, Group C

Walters M Walters M 2:0 Drab F

4 Wins

1 Losses

1.6 Sets won

0.6 Sets lost

80% Win percentage

Ponchet M

L L W L L

2026-07-19 2026 Tampere, Finland, Qualifying

Ponchet M 0:2 Zielinski M Ponchet M

2026-03-09 2026 Cherbourg, France, Qualifying

Ghibaudo A 2:0 Ponchet M Ponchet M

2026-03-08 2026 Cherbourg, France, Qualifying

Ponchet M 2:0 Bobichon M Ponchet M

2024-11-24 2024 Spain F48, Singles Qualifying

Ponchet M 0:2 Dominguez Alonso J Ponchet M

2024-11-06 2024 Hungary F8, Singles

Kis Balazs R 2:1 Ponchet M Ponchet M

1 Wins

4 Losses

0.6 Sets won

1.6 Sets lost

20% Win percentage

Walters M - Ponchet M

Extended stats (scorego)

About the athletes

Serve and return stats

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Hard

Clay

Grass

H2H series (tennisstats)

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Win percentage (match / set)

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Total games

Aces

Breaks

Tie-breaks

Double faults

Net points

AI match prediction Walters M - Ponchet M August 16, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Forecast by market

Walters M - Ponchet M

Match markets

Handicap

Handicap

Total

Total

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Frequently asked questions