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AI verdict

AI pick Shepp A win probability ~60% confidence Medium best odds 1.60

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Shepp A. Full breakdown below.

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ATP Challenger. Roehampton
ATP Challenger. Roehampton
17.08.2026 13:00 UTC

Shepp A - Ceban M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Roehampton
ATP Challenger. Roehampton hard 17.08.2026 13:00 UTC Not started
17.08.2026 13:00 UTC Not started
Shepp A
Shepp A
Rank #498 Elo 91
70Good Form
L L W L W L W W
C
Ceban M
Rank #2097 Elo 1
36Bad Form
L W L W W W W L
-:-
Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Shepp, Anton Ceban, Mark
Win % 64.6% 25%
Hard % 64.4% 30.8%
Clay % 66.7% 0%
Grass % 0% 0%
Deciding set % 50% 0%
Tie-breaks % 55.6% 66.7%
Titles (total) 3 0
Last 10 LLWLWLWWWW LWWWLWLLLL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#498 Rating #2097
23 Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Shepp A Ceban M
Aces per match 6.83 1.50
Double faults per match 3.5 3.5
Breaks per match 2.5 12

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Anton Shepp
Rank:498 Elo: 91
L L W L W L W W
Mark Ceban
Rank:2097 Elo: 1
L W L W W W W L
Elo favourite:Shepp A (edge +90 Elo)

Hard

Anton SheppMark Ceban
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 70.3% 26 / 37 Matches 50.0% 4 / 8 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 67.3% 37 / 55 Matches 50.0% 4 / 8 Matches
Aces Per Match 6.83 N/A
Most Aces in a match 50 % N/A

Clay

Anton SheppMark Ceban
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 66.7% 2 / 3 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 60.0% 3 / 5 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Aces Per Match N/A N/A
Most Aces in a match N/A N/A

Grass

Anton SheppMark Ceban
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 25.0% 1 / 4 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches 25.0% 1 / 4 Matches
Aces Per Match N/A 1.50
Most Aces in a match N/A 0 %

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Anton Shepp Mark Ceban
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 70.0% 28 / 40 Matches 35.7% 5 / 14 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 66.7% 40 / 60 Matches 35.7% 5 / 14 Matches
Current rank 498 2097

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Anton Shepp Mark Ceban
Prize money (career) $2,797 USD $0 USD
Rating 498 2097
Age 23 —

Win percentage (match / set)

Anton Shepp Mark Ceban
Match Wins 70 % 36 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 70 % 38 %
Wins in Straight Sets 55 % 29 %
Wins From Behind 8 % 0 %
Won At Least 1 Set 80 % 71 %
Set 1 Win 73 % 50 %
Set 2 Win 62 % 50 %
Set 3 Win 60 % 17 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Anton Shepp Mark Ceban Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.3 9.57 9.44
Over 6.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 7.5 88 % 77 % 83 %
Over 8.5 65 % 69 % 67 %
Over 9.5 40 % 54 % 47 %
Over 10.5 18 % 31 % 25 %
Over 11.5 18 % 31 % 25 %

Aces

Anton Shepp Mark Ceban Match total
Aces Per Match 6.83 1.50 8.33
Most Aces in a match 50 % 0 % N/A
1+ 100 % 100 % 100 %
2+ 100 % 50 % 100 %
3+ 83 % 0 % 100 %
4+ 67 % 0 % 100 %
5+ 67 % 0 % 100 %

Breaks

Anton Shepp Mark Ceban Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.5 12 14.5
Over 0.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 83 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 83 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 83 % 100 % 100 %
Over 4.5 0 % 100 % 100 %
Over 5.5 0 % 100 % 50 %

Tie-breaks

Anton Shepp Mark Ceban Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.2 0.15 0.18
Over 0.5 18 % 15 % 16 %
Over 1.5 3 % 0 % 1 %
Under 0.5 83 % 85 % 16 %
Under 1.5 98 % 100 % 1 %

Double faults

Anton Shepp Mark Ceban Match total
Double Faults Per Match 3.5 3.5 7
Over 0.5 (1+) 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 83 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 67 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 17 % 50 % 67 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 17 % 0 % 59 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 17 % 0 % 42 %

Net points

Anton Shepp Mark Ceban Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.5 N/A N/A
Over 4.5 (5+) 100 % N/A N/A
Over 5.5 (6+) 0 % N/A N/A
Over 6.5 (7+) 0 % N/A N/A
Over 7.5 (8+) 0 % N/A N/A
Over 8.5 (9+) 0 % N/A N/A
Over 9.5 (10+) 0 % N/A N/A

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.59 60.2% BetBoom
P2 2.40 39.9% BetBoom

Shepp A take on Ceban M on August 17, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Roehampton.

Recent form (W-D-L): Shepp A 2-0-3, Ceban M 1-0-4. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Shepp A — 60%

1 · Shepp A59.5%
market 60%
2 · Ceban M40.5%
market 40%

Model estimate: win Shepp A 59.5%, win Ceban M 40.5%. Model favourite — Shepp A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Shepp A (odds1.41) Score 2:1 confidence 64%
  • • Shepp A
  • • (Nzl) — Ceban M
  • • 🇬🇧 (tennis)
  • • Shepp A
  • • (Nzl): forma PPVPV (2-3)
  • • Ceban M
  • • 🇬🇧: forma PVPVP (2-3)
  • • Model backs Shepp A
  • • (Nzl): probability 64% vs 71% on the line (odds 1.41)
  • • no edge over the line (-7 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shepp A - Ceban M August 17, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Shepp A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.60 / 2 2.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.8% 6 books · best price +3.9%
1 60.2%
2 39.8%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.40 ↑ 1.52
Winner P2 2.70 ↓ 2.35

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Shepp A
60%
1.60
Ceban M
40%
2.40
Total
Over 22.5
49%
2.00
Under 22.5
51%
1.83

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Match center
Start 17.08.2026 13:00 UTC
Market 1 57.9% @ 1.60 / 2 42.1% @ 2.20
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Shepp A 60%
💹 Market Shepp A 60%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
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Match center

Shepp A - Ceban M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shepp A 60.8% 55.1% market and model agree
Ceban M 39.3% 44.9% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko59.5% · +Elo prior (weight0.51).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 59.5% / 40.5% probabilities
Rating 1,403 / 1,514 Shepp, Anton / Ceban, Mark
RD 221 / 207 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 961-1,845 / 1,100-1,927 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.20 Fonbet · no value · model 40.5%
1 1.60 Fonbet · no value · model 59.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 10.5 3.30 market consensus · line only
Over 2.5 2.30 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.75 57.1%
1.81 55.3% 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%
1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6% 2.10 47.6%
— — 2.25 44.4%
1.91 52.4% 1.83 54.6% —
1.86 53.8% 1.80 55.6% —
— — 2.10 47.6%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.58 63.3%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.25 80.0%
2.45 40.8%
1.48 67.6%
3.55 28.2%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Kambi BetMGM
Over 2.5 — — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 10.5 — — — 3.30 30.3%
Over 20.5 — — 1.60 62.5% 1.52 65.8%
Over 21.5 1.76 56.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.66 60.2%
Over 22.5 1.91 52.4% — 2.00 50.0% —
Over 23.5 — — 2.20 45.5% —
Under 20.5 — — 2.20 45.5% —
Under 21.5 1.97 50.8% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% —
Under 22.5 1.81 55.3% — 1.73 57.8% —
Under 23.5 — — 1.60 62.5% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.30 43.5%
Under 2.5 1.55 64.5%
Match center
Shepp A
L L W L W
2026-07-27 2026 Vancouver, Canada, Qualifying
Shepp A Zhu Evan 2:1 Shepp A
2026-07-20 2026 Winnipeg, Canada, Qualifying
Shepp A Milavsky D 2:0 Shepp A
2026-07-19 2026 Winnipeg, Canada, Qualifying
Shepp A Rozin A 1:2 Shepp A
2026-07-16 2026 Lincoln, USA
Shepp A Wong C 2:0 Shepp A
2026-07-13 2026 Lincoln, USA
Shepp A Kennedy J 1:2 Shepp A
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Ceban M
L W L L L
2026-07-07 2026 Wimbledon, Boys
Ceban M 1:2 Mackenzie J Ceban M
2026-07-05 2026 Wimbledon, Boys
Ceban M 2:1 Goode G Ceban M
2026-06-22 2026 Wimbledon, London, GB, Qualifying, 1st - 2nd Round
Ceban M 0:2 Carballes Baena R Ceban M
2026-06-13 2026 Nottingham 2, Great Britain, Qualifying
Zhang Zhizhen 2:0 Ceban M Ceban M
2026-06-07 2026 Ilkley, Great Britain, Qualifying
Crawford O 2:0 Ceban M Ceban M
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.6 Sets won
1.8 Sets lost
20% Win percentage

Recent form

Shepp A LLWLWW
Ceban M LWLLLL

Match facts

Round: 25 Stadium: Court 1

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

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Frequently asked questions

When does Shepp A vs Ceban M start?

August 17, 2026.