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AI verdict

AI pick Basing M win probability ~58% confidence Medium best odds 6.70

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Basing M. Full breakdown below.

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ATP Challenger. Roehampton
ATP Challenger. Roehampton
17.08.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction

Poullain L - Basing M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Roehampton
ATP Challenger. Roehampton hard 17.08.2026 16:30 UTC Finished
17.08.2026 16:30 UTC Finished
P
Poullain L
Rank #369 Elo 139
65Average Form
W W W W W L L L
B
Basing M
Rank #248 Elo 226
68Average Form
W W L L W L L L
2:0
Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Poullain L Basing M
Win % 62.8% 74.3%
Hard % 61.6% 76%
Clay % 68% 0%
Grass % 0% 54.5%
Deciding set % 54.7% 69.4%
Tie-breaks % 59.3% 71.4%
Titles (total) 6 8
Last 10 WWWWWLLWLL LWWLWLLWWW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#369 Rating #248
30 Age 23
1.75m Height (cm) 1.80m
68kg Weight (kg) 70kg
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Poullain L Basing M
Aces per match 1.80 1.31
Double faults per match 1.1 3.62
Breaks per match 1.93 4

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Lucas Poullain
Rank:369 Elo: 139
W W W W W L L L
Max Basing
Rank:248 Elo: 226
W W L L W L L L
Elo favourite:Basing M (edge +87 Elo)

Hard

Lucas PoullainMax Basing
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 66.7% 24 / 36 Matches 66.7% 14 / 21 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 60.0% 33 / 55 Matches 72.7% 40 / 55 Matches

Clay

Lucas PoullainMax Basing
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 42.9% 3 / 7 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 42.9% 3 / 7 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Grass

Lucas PoullainMax Basing
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 42.9% 3 / 7 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches 42.9% 3 / 7 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Lucas Poullain Max Basing
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 65.2% 30 / 46 Matches 68.4% 26 / 38 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 60.0% 39 / 65 Matches 72.2% 52 / 72 Matches
Current rank 369 248

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Lucas Poullain Max Basing
Prize money (career) $107,035 USD $15,330 USD
Rating 369 248
Age 30 23
Height 1.75m 1.80m
Weight 68kg 70kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Lucas Poullain Max Basing
Match Wins 65 % 68 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 63 % 61 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) N/A 100 %
Wins in Straight Sets 46 % 45 %
Wins From Behind 33 % 37 %
Won At Least 1 Set 74 % 79 %
Set 1 Win 54 % 61 %
Set 2 Win 64 % 63 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Lucas Poullain Max Basing Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.96 9.37 9.67
Over 6.5 100 % 93 % 97 %
Over 7.5 91 % 82 % 87 %
Over 8.5 72 % 64 % 68 %
Over 9.5 53 % 39 % 46 %
Over 10.5 30 % 29 % 30 %
Over 11.5 30 % 29 % 30 %

Aces

Lucas Poullain Max Basing Match total
Aces Per Match 1.80 1.31 3.11
Most Aces in a match 30 % 8 % N/A
1+ 70 % 77 % 95 %
2+ 60 % 31 % 90 %
3+ 35 % 15 % 85 %
4+ 5 % 8 % 73 %
5+ 5 % 0 % 56 %

Breaks

Lucas Poullain Max Basing Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.93 4 5.93
Over 0.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 95 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 40 % 38 % 78 %
Over 3.5 40 % 38 % 78 %
Over 4.5 5 % 38 % 78 %
Over 5.5 0 % 38 % 55 %

Tie-breaks

Lucas Poullain Max Basing Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.3 0.39 0.35
Over 0.5 28 % 39 % 34 %
Over 1.5 2 % 0 % 1 %
Under 0.5 72 % 61 % 34 %
Under 1.5 98 % 100 % 1 %

Double faults

Lucas Poullain Max Basing Match total
Double Faults Per Match 1.1 3.62 4.72
Over 0.5 (1+) 70 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 25 % 69 % 95 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 5 % 62 % 78 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 5 % 46 % 56 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 5 % 23 % 49 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 0 % 23 % 34 %

Net points

Lucas Poullain Max Basing Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 9.25 N/A N/A
Over 4.5 (5+) 58 % N/A N/A
Over 5.5 (6+) 50 % N/A N/A
Over 6.5 (7+) 50 % N/A N/A
Over 7.5 (8+) 25 % N/A N/A
Over 8.5 (9+) 25 % N/A N/A
Over 9.5 (10+) 25 % N/A N/A

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.38 73.8% BetBoom
P2 6.70 26.2% BetBoom

Poullain L take on Basing M on August 17, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Roehampton.

Recent form (W-D-L): Poullain L 5-0-0, Basing M 3-0-2. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 42% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Basing M — 58%

1 · Poullain L42.3%
2 · Basing M57.7%

Model estimate: win Poullain L 42.3%, win Basing M 57.7%. Model favourite — Basing M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Basing M (odds1.27) Score 1:2 confidence 70% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Pullan L
  • • 🇫🇷 — Beyzing M
  • • 🇬🇧 (tennis)
  • • Pullan L
  • • 🇫🇷: forma VVVVV (5-0)
  • • Beyzing M
  • • 🇬🇧: forma PVVPV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Beyzing M
  • • 🇬🇧: probability 70% vs 79% on the line (odds 1.27)
  • • no edge over the line (-9 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Poullain L - Basing M August 17, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Poullain L.

Line favourite Fonbet: Poullain L. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.07 / 2 6.70
  • Glicko: Poullain L 42.3% / Basing M 57.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.1% 4 books · best price +328.1%
1 40.4%
2 59.7%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 3.40 ↓ 1.07
Winner 2 1.27 ↑ 6.70

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Poullain L
41%
2.38
Basing M
59%
6.70
Total
Over 21.5
50%
1.92
Under 21.5
50%
1.86

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated17.08.2026 17:24 UTC
1 37%
2 63% ✓ favourite
Score1:2 Total games: Over 21.5 Bet:2
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 37% 63% 1:2 Over 21.5
Match center
Start 17.08.2026 16:30 UTC
Market 1 86.2% @ 1.07 / 2 13.8% @ 6.70
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Basing M 63%
📐 Math model Basing M 58%
💹 Market Basing M 60%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Poullain L - Basing M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 57.7% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.666 / LogLoss 0.861
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 50.9% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.519 / LogLoss 0.712
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Poullain L 40.4% 44.7% market and model agree
Basing M 59.7% 55.3% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko42.3% · +Elo prior (weight0.36).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 42.3% / 57.7% probabilities
Rating 1,876 / 1,663 Poullain L / Basing M
RD 160 / 175 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,556-2,195 / 1,314-2,013 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.70 Fonbet · weak value +286.7% · model 57.7%
1 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 42.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.95 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.13 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 10.5 3.80 market consensus · line only
Over 15.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.75 57.1%
1.85 54.1%
1.77 56.5%
1.63 61.4%
1.77 56.5%
1.90 52.6%
2.07 48.3%
2.30 43.5%
2.50 40.0%
1.95 51.3%
1.85 54.1%
1.93 51.8%
2.10 47.6%
1.75 57.1%
6.40 15.6%
5.80 17.2%
1.30 76.9%
1.52 65.8%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.05 95.2%
1.28 78.1%
3.35 29.9%
7.00 14.3%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 15.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 16.5 2.65 37.7%
Over 17.5 1.68 59.5%
Over 18.5 1.77 56.5%
Over 19.5 3.35 29.9%
Over 20.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 21.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 22.5 1.75 57.1%
Over 23.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 24.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 25.5 3.45 29.0%
Over 26.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 27.5 1.80 55.6%
Under 15.5 2.45 40.8%
Under 16.5 1.42 70.4%
Under 17.5 2.05 48.8%
Under 18.5 1.93 51.8%
Under 19.5 1.28 78.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 3.35 29.9%
Under 2.5 1.28 78.1%
Match center
Poullain L
W W W W W
2026-08-09 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Poullain L Poullain L 2:1 Simakin I
2026-08-08 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Poullain L Poullain L 2:0 Brouwer G
2026-08-07 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Poullain L Poullain L 2:1 Miyoshi K
2026-08-06 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Poullain L Poullain L 2:0 Binda A
2026-08-04 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Poullain L Added D 0:2 Poullain L
5 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
0.4 Sets lost
100% Win percentage
Basing M
L W W L W
2026-08-07 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Ghibaudo A 1:0 Basing M Basing M
2026-08-05 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Pereira T 0:2 Basing M Basing M
2026-08-03 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Ratti L 0:2 Basing M Basing M
2026-07-30 2026 Samsun, Turkiye
Basing M 1:2 Bittoun Kouzmine C Basing M
2026-07-28 2026 Samsun, Turkiye
Basing M 2:0 Rawat S Basing M
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

More predictions

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Poullain L vs Basing M?

By the PropickAI model, Poullain L is favoured — about 58% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Poullain L vs Basing M?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Poullain L. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Poullain L vs Basing M start?

August 17, 2026.