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AI verdict

AI pick Rybakov A win probability ~74% confidence High best odds 1.20

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Rybakov A. Full breakdown below.

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ATP Challenger. Roehampton
ATP Challenger. Roehampton
18.08.2026 10:00 UTC

Zakaria F - Rybakov A

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Roehampton
ATP Challenger. Roehampton hard 18.08.2026 10:00 UTC Not started
18.08.2026 10:00 UTC Not started
Z
Zakaria F
Rank #507 Elo 89
39Bad Form
L W W L L W L W
Rybakov A
Rybakov A
Rank #520 Elo 85
60Average Form
L L W L L L W L
-:-
Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Zakaria, Faris Rybakov A
Win % 54.6% 54.8%
Hard % 59.1% 54.5%
Clay % 33.3% 54.9%
Grass % 0% 50%
Deciding set % 47.8% 44.9%
Tie-breaks % 48.3% 41.1%
Titles (total) 3 0
Last 10 LWWWLLWLWL LWWLLWLLLW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#507 Rating #520
29 Age 25
1.85m Height (cm) 1.83m
77kg Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Zakaria F Rybakov A
Aces per match 4.71 2.80
Double faults per match 3.12 7.2
Breaks per match 1.53 3.5

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Alex Rybakov
Rank:507 Elo: 89
L W W L L W L W
Fares Zakaria
Rank:520 Elo: 85
L L W L L L W L
Elo favourite:Rybakov A (edge +4 Elo)

Hard

Alex RybakovFares Zakaria
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 26.7% 4 / 15 Matches 63.3% 19 / 30 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 33.3% 10 / 30 Matches 58.6% 34 / 58 Matches
Aces Per Match 4.22 3.33
Most Aces in a match 44 % 0 %

Clay

Alex RybakovFares Zakaria
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 54.6% 6 / 11 Matches 33.3% 2 / 6 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 54.6% 6 / 11 Matches 33.3% 2 / 6 Matches
Aces Per Match 3.83 2.00
Most Aces in a match 33 % 0 %

Grass

Alex RybakovFares Zakaria
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Aces Per Match 9.50 N/A
Most Aces in a match 100 % N/A

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Alex Rybakov Fares Zakaria
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 39.3% 11 / 28 Matches 59.5% 25 / 42 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 39.5% 17 / 43 Matches 56.3% 40 / 71 Matches
Current rank 507 520

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Alex Rybakov Fares Zakaria
Prize money (career) $176,503 USD $0 USD
Rating 507 520
Age 29 25
Height 1.85m 1.83m
Weight 77kg —

Win percentage (match / set)

Alex Rybakov Fares Zakaria
Match Wins 39 % 60 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 39 % 58 %
Wins in Straight Sets 25 % 38 %
Wins From Behind 19 % 23 %
Won At Least 1 Set 71 % 71 %
Set 1 Win 43 % 52 %
Set 2 Win 54 % 57 %
Set 3 Win 31 % 64 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Alex Rybakov Fares Zakaria Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.86 9.24 9.55
Over 6.5 96 % 89 % 93 %
Over 7.5 93 % 69 % 81 %
Over 8.5 71 % 61 % 66 %
Over 9.5 50 % 47 % 49 %
Over 10.5 29 % 28 % 29 %
Over 11.5 29 % 28 % 29 %

Aces

Alex Rybakov Fares Zakaria Match total
Aces Per Match 4.71 2.80 7.51
Most Aces in a match 47 % 0 % N/A
1+ 94 % 100 % 97 %
2+ 65 % 100 % 94 %
3+ 53 % 20 % 94 %
4+ 53 % 20 % 91 %
5+ 47 % 20 % 78 %

Breaks

Alex Rybakov Fares Zakaria Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.53 3.5 5.03
Over 0.5 41 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 35 % 40 % 100 %
Over 2.5 35 % 40 % 100 %
Over 3.5 0 % 40 % 53 %
Over 4.5 0 % 40 % 50 %
Over 5.5 0 % 40 % 50 %

Tie-breaks

Alex Rybakov Fares Zakaria Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.29 0.28 0.28
Over 0.5 29 % 22 % 25 %
Over 1.5 0 % 6 % 3 %
Under 0.5 71 % 78 % 25 %
Under 1.5 100 % 94 % 3 %

Double faults

Alex Rybakov Fares Zakaria Match total
Double Faults Per Match 3.12 7.2 10.32
Over 0.5 (1+) 88 % 100 % 97 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 65 % 100 % 94 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 59 % 80 % 86 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 47 % 80 % 83 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 35 % 80 % 70 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 12 % 60 % 60 %

Net points

Alex Rybakov Fares Zakaria Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 10.5 5.75 16.25
Over 4.5 (5+) 100 % 0 % 50 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 93 % 0 % 47 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 86 % 0 % 43 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 79 % 0 % 40 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 79 % 0 % 40 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 79 % 0 % 40 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 4.00 23.5% BetBoom
P2 1.23 76.5% BetBoom

Zakaria F go head-to-head with Rybakov A on August 18, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Roehampton.

Recent form (W-D-L): Zakaria F 0-0-5, Rybakov A 1-0-4. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Rybakov A — 74%

1 · Zakaria F25.9%
market 24%
2 · Rybakov A ✓ Pick74.1%
market 76%

Model estimate: win Zakaria F 25.9%, win Rybakov A 74.1%. Model favourite — Rybakov A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Rybakov A (odds1.27) Score 1:2 confidence 53%
  • • Zakaria F
  • • 🇪🇬 — Rybakov A
  • • 🇺🇸 (tennis)
  • • Zakaria F
  • • 🇪🇬: forma PVVVP (3-2)
  • • Rybakov A
  • • 🇺🇸: forma PVV (2-1)
  • • Model backs Rybakov A
  • • 🇺🇸: probability 53% vs 79% on the line (odds 1.27)
  • • no edge over the line (-25 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Zakaria F - Rybakov A August 18, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Rybakov A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 4.00 / 2 1.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.8% 6 books · best price +1.7%
1 23.6%
2 ✓ Pick 76.4%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 3.40 ↑ 4.00
Winner P2 1.27 ↓ 1.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Zakaria F
23%
4.00
Rybakov A
77%
1.23
Total
Over 9.5
48%
1.95
Under 9.5
52%
1.80

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated18.08.2026 00:58 UTC
1 26%
2 74% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: Under 20.5 Bet:Exact Score 0:2
Per AI data Form:LWWWL / LWW H2H: First meeting Injuries:None Key:Rybakov superior Challenger experience and ranking advantage
Details

The ATP Challenger 50 tournament in Roehampton brings an intriguing first-round encounter on outdoor hard courts between Egypt's Faris Zakaria and America's Alex Rybakov.
Pre-Match Analysis
Current Form: Faris Zakaria enters this match with a mixed set of results, holding a recent record of LWWWL. While he managed a few wins at lower-level ITF events, he has struggled to find consistency when transitioning up to the Challenger tier. On the other hand, Alex Rybakov arrives with a LWW format. Although playing fewer professional matches recently, Rybakov has a history of deeper runs on hard surfaces.
Injuries and Suspensions: There are no fresh injuries, physical issues, or suspensions reported for either player ahead of this match. Both athletes are fully fit and highly motivated to secure crucial ranking points in London.
Head-to-Head (H2H): There are no previous official head-to-head encounters between Zakaria and Rybakov on the professional tour, making this their first career meeting.
Model and Market Trends: The pre-match analytical model strongly favors Rybakov with a 74% win probability, compared to just 26% for Zakaria. The early betting line movements confirm this stance, as odds for a home victory shifted from 3.40 up to 3.95, while the away win probability sharpened from 1.27 down to 1.20. Rybakov’s superior career-high ranking of No. 261 over Zakaria’s No. 449 justifies this massive market preference.
Outcome Forecast
Given Rybakov's extensive experience at the Challenger level and his left-handed tactical advantage on fast hard courts, he is expected to dictate the tempo of the matches from the baseline. Zakaria will likely face heavy pressure on his service games, leading to a straight-set victory for the American.
P1 (Home Win): 26%
P2 (Away Win): 74%
Total Games: Under 20.5
Exact Score by Sets: 0:2
Conclusion
The main recommendation is to back a convincing straight-sets victory for the favorite.
Main Bet: Exact Score by Sets: 0:2 (Alex Rybakov to win 2-0)

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 26% 74% 0:2 Under 20.5 Exact Score 0:2
Match center
Start 18.08.2026 10:00 UTC
Market 1 23.1% @ 4.00 / 2 76.9% @ 1.20
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Rybakov A 74%
📐 Math model Rybakov A 74%
💹 Market Rybakov A 76%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Zakaria F - Rybakov A

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Zakaria F 23.6% 36.8%
Rybakov A 76.4% 63.2% model more cautious than market

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko25.9% · +Elo prior (weight0.46).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 25.9% / 74.1% probabilities
Rating 1,606 / 1,778 Zakaria, Faris / Rybakov A
RD 180 / 213 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,245-1,967 / 1,353-2,203 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.20 Fonbet · no value · model 74.1%
1 4.00 Fonbet · no value · model 25.9%
Total
Over 10.5 3.45 market consensus · line only
Over 19.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
— — 3.05 32.8% —
— — 2.50 40.0% —
1.97 50.8% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.88 53.2%
— — 1.57 63.7% —
— — 1.33 75.2% —
— — 1.47 68.0% —
— — 1.75 57.1% —
— — 2.25 44.4% —
1.76 56.8% 1.73 57.8% — 1.86 53.8%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
2.10 47.6%
6.70 14.9%
1.07 93.5%
1.65 60.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Kambi BetMGM
Over 2.5 — — — 2.70 37.0%
Over 8.5 — — — 1.30 76.9%
Over 10.5 — — — 3.45 29.0%
Over 19.5 — — 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4%
Over 20.5 1.83 54.6% 1.76 56.8% 1.82 55.0% 1.71 58.5%
Over 21.5 — — 2.02 49.5% 1.90 52.6%
Over 22.5 — — 2.35 42.6% —
Under 19.5 — — 2.20 45.5% —
Under 20.5 1.89 52.9% 1.94 51.6% 1.88 53.2% —
Under 21.5 — — 1.70 58.8% —
Under 22.5 — — 1.53 65.4% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.70 37.0%
Under 2.5 1.40 71.4%
Match center
Zakaria F
L L L L L
2026-08-03 2026 Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Poland
Zakaria F Zakaria F 1:2 Glinka D
2026-06-21 2026 Plovdiv, Bulgaria, Qualifying
Zakaria F Zakaria F 1:2 Fancutt T
2026-06-14 2026 Poznan, Poland, Qualifying
Zakaria F Castelnuovo L 2:0 Zakaria F
2026-06-07 2026 Bratislava, Slovakia, Qualifying
Zakaria F Zakaria F 0:2 Erhard M
2026-02-07 Davis Cup 2026
Zakaria F Zakaria F 0:2 Filar K
0 Wins
5 Losses
0.4 Sets won
2.0 Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Rybakov A
L W L L L
2026-07-07 2026 Newport, USA, Qualifying
Ilagan A 2:1 Rybakov A Rybakov A
2026-07-05 2026 Newport, USA, Qualifying
Rybakov A 2:0 Wu Tung-Lin Rybakov A
2026-06-28 2026 Cary, USA, Qualifying
Rybakov A 0:1 Moriya H Rybakov A
2026-04-21 2026 Savannah, USA
Rybakov A 0:2 Feldbausch K Rybakov A
2026-04-15 2026 Tallahassee, USA
Rybakov A 1:2 Boscardin Dias P Rybakov A
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.8 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
20% Win percentage

Recent form

Zakaria F LLLLLL
Rybakov A LWLLWL

Match facts

Round: 25 Stadium: Court 5

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

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Frequently asked questions

When does Zakaria F vs Rybakov A start?

August 18, 2026.