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ATP Challenger. Todi
ATP Challenger. Todi International
09.08.2026 08:00 UTC Match prediction

Mecarelli M - Vasa E

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Todi
ATP Challenger. Todi 09.08.2026 08:00 UTC Finished
09.08.2026 08:00 UTC Finished
Mecarelli M
Mecarelli M
Rank #480 Elo 93
56Average Form
L W L W L W W L
Vasa E
Vasa E
Rank #950 Elo 23
50Average Form
W L W W L W L L
2:0 6:3 6:2
1 2 GP
Mecarelli M 6 6 2
Vasa E 3 2 0
1 2
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Mecarelli M Vasa E
Win % 45.7% 58.7%
Hard % 66.7% 55.1%
Clay % 35.5% 60.8%
Grass % 0% 0%
Deciding set % 53.3% 56.8%
Tie-breaks % 27.3% 52.3%
Titles (total) 0 1
Last 10 LWLLWWLLWL LWWWLWLWLW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#480 Rating #950
29 Age -
1.85m Height (cm) -
82kg Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
- Coverage -
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Mecarelli M Vasa E
Aces per match 5.64 2.00
Double faults per match 3.72 3.5
Breaks per match 1.76 3.5

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Eero Vasa
Rank:480 Elo: 93
L W L W L W W L
Michele Mecarelli
Rank:950 Elo: 23
W L W W L W L L
Elo favourite:Vasa E (edge +70 Elo)

Hard

Eero VasaMichele Mecarelli
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 50.0% 4 / 8 Matches 70.0% 7 / 10 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 52.6% 10 / 19 Matches 64.3% 9 / 14 Matches
Aces Per Match 6.67 4.00
Most Aces in a match 50 % 50 %

Clay

Eero VasaMichele Mecarelli
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 57.1% 16 / 28 Matches 35.7% 5 / 14 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 59.0% 23 / 39 Matches 31.8% 7 / 22 Matches
Aces Per Match 5.32 0.00
Most Aces in a match 74 % 0 %

Grass

Eero VasaMichele Mecarelli
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Aces Per Match N/A N/A
Most Aces in a match N/A N/A

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Eero Vasa Michele Mecarelli
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 56.4% 22 / 39 Matches 50.0% 15 / 30 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 57.4% 35 / 61 Matches 45.2% 19 / 42 Matches
Current rank 480 950

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Eero Vasa Michele Mecarelli
Prize money (career) $54,084 USD $0 USD
Rating 480 950
Age 29 —
Height 1.85m —
Weight 82kg —

Win percentage (match / set)

Eero Vasa Michele Mecarelli
Match Wins 56 % 50 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 56 % 50 %
Wins in Straight Sets 31 % 27 %
Wins From Behind 26 % 21 %
Won At Least 1 Set 72 % 63 %
Set 1 Win 51 % 47 %
Set 2 Win 51 % 45 %
Set 3 Win 63 % 64 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Eero Vasa Michele Mecarelli Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.9 8.83 9.37
Over 6.5 100 % 92 % 96 %
Over 7.5 97 % 71 % 84 %
Over 8.5 86 % 58 % 72 %
Over 9.5 47 % 46 % 47 %
Over 10.5 22 % 8 % 15 %
Over 11.5 22 % 8 % 15 %

Aces

Eero Vasa Michele Mecarelli Match total
Aces Per Match 5.64 2.00 7.64
Most Aces in a match 68 % 25 % N/A
1+ 100 % 25 % 100 %
2+ 84 % 25 % 98 %
3+ 76 % 25 % 69 %
4+ 64 % 25 % 63 %
5+ 64 % 25 % 51 %

Breaks

Eero Vasa Michele Mecarelli Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.76 3.5 5.26
Over 0.5 56 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 24 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 20 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 12 % 100 % 60 %
Over 4.5 0 % 100 % 56 %
Over 5.5 0 % 0 % 54 %

Tie-breaks

Eero Vasa Michele Mecarelli Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.28 0.21 0.24
Over 0.5 22 % 17 % 19 %
Over 1.5 6 % 4 % 5 %
Under 0.5 78 % 83 % 19 %
Under 1.5 94 % 96 % 5 %

Double faults

Eero Vasa Michele Mecarelli Match total
Double Faults Per Match 3.72 3.5 7.22
Over 0.5 (1+) 88 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 72 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 68 % 50 % 98 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 48 % 25 % 61 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 36 % 25 % 57 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 20 % 25 % 49 %

Net points

Eero Vasa Michele Mecarelli Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 6.53 9 15.53
Over 4.5 (5+) 60 % 50 % 55 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 53 % 0 % 27 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 40 % 0 % 20 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 40 % 0 % 20 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 40 % 0 % 20 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 33 % 0 % 17 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.75 35.3% BetBoom
P2 1.50 64.7% BetBoom

Mecarelli M take on Vasa E on August 9, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Todi, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Mecarelli M 2-1-2, Vasa E 2-0-3. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 37% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Vasa E — 63%

Pure model vs market (2 · Vasa E): model 53% · market 65% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Mecarelli M36.6%
market35%
2 · Vasa E ✓ Pick63.4%
market65%

Model estimate: win Mecarelli M 36.6%, win Vasa E 63.4%. Model favourite — Vasa E.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Vasa E (odds1.40) Score 1:2 confidence 56% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Mekarelli M: forma PVPVP (2-3)
  • • Vasa E: forma VVPPV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Vasa E: probability 56% vs 71% on the line (odds 1.40)
  • • no edge over the line (-16 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mecarelli M - Vasa E August 9, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mecarelli M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Mecarelli M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.04 / 2 7.00
  • Glicko: Mecarelli M 36.6% / Vasa E 63.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.9% 5 books · best price +389.5%
1 35.5%
2 ✓ Pick 64.5%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 2.70 ↓ 2.45
Winner 2 1.40 ↑ 1.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Mecarelli M
35%
2.75
Vasa E
65%
7.00
Total
Over 21.5
51%
1.85
Under 21.5
49%
1.90

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Mecarelli M

no data

Vasa E
5-5WWWLLLWLWL
scored 1.1conceded 1.3

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 09.08.2026 08:00 UTC
Market 1 87.1% @ 1.04 / 2 12.9% @ 7.00
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Vasa E 63%
💹 Market Vasa E 65%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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$10,000Virtual balance

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Match center

Mecarelli M - Vasa E

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 20
Set Mecarelli M Vasa E Result
Set 1 6 3 6:3
Set 2 6 2 6:2
Metric Mecarelli M Vasa E SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/0 0/0 final
Points na prieme 0% (0/1) 0% (0/0) final
Eysy 0 0 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 0/0 0/0 final
Dvoynye oshibki 0 0 final
Pervaya podacha, % 0% 100% final
Points na pervoy podache 0% (0/0) 100% (1/1) final
Points na vtoroy podache 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form away - 63.4% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.803 / LogLoss 1.004
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form away - 51.6% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.533 / LogLoss 0.726
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Mecarelli M 35.5% 41.8% market and model agree
Vasa E 64.5% 58.2% market and model agree
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko36.6% · +Elo prior (weight0.41).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 36.6% / 63.4% probabilities
Rating 1,466 / 1,619 Mecarelli M / Vasa E
RD 175 / 189 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,115-1,817 / 1,242-1,996 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.00 Fonbet · weak value +343.6% · model 63.4%
1 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 36.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 17.5 3.20 Fonbet · line only
Over 18.5 1.68 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
1.79 55.9% —
— 1.85 54.1%
— 1.83 54.6%
— 1.80 55.6%
— 1.70 58.8%
— 1.83 54.6%
— 1.88 53.2%
— 1.88 53.2%
— 1.73 57.8%
— 2.10 47.6%
— 1.85 54.1%
— 1.87 53.5%
— 1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6% 2.02 49.5%
— 2.20 45.5%
— 1.70 58.8%
— 3.20 31.3%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
1.02 98.0%
10.00 10.0%
9.00 11.1%

Total

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
Over 17.5 — 3.20 31.3%
Over 18.5 — 1.68 59.5%
Over 19.5 — 1.78 56.2%
Over 20.5 — 1.78 56.2%
Over 21.5 1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6%
Over 22.5 — 1.85 54.1%
Over 23.5 — 1.85 54.1%
Over 24.5 — 1.90 52.6%
Over 25.5 — 1.72 58.1%
Over 26.5 — 1.95 51.3%
Under 17.5 — 1.28 78.1%
Under 18.5 — 2.05 48.8%
Under 19.5 — 1.92 52.1%
Under 20.5 — 1.92 52.1%
Under 21.5 1.90 52.6% 1.87 53.5%
Under 22.5 — 1.85 54.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 10.00 10.0%
Under 2.5 1.02 98.0%
Match center
Mecarelli M
L L D W W
2026-06-14 2026 Parma, Italy, Qualifying
Mecarelli M Mecarelli M 0:2 Paul J
2026-06-07 2026 Cattolica, Italy, Qualifying
Mecarelli M Nesterov P 2:0 Mecarelli M
2026-02-04 2026 Cesenatico, Italy
Mecarelli M Mecarelli M 1:1 Iannaccone F
2026-02-02 2026 Cesenatico, Italy, Qualifying
Mecarelli M Mecarelli M 2:1 Simundza J
2026-02-01 2026 Cesenatico, Italy, Qualifying
Mecarelli M Janvier M 1:2 Mecarelli M
2 Wins
2 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Vasa E
L W L W L
2026-07-22 2026 Tampere, Finland
Vasa E 0:2 Kasnikowski M Vasa E
2026-07-21 2026 Tampere, Finland
Sanches Izquierdo N 1:2 Vasa E Vasa E
2026-06-24 2026 Plovdiv, Bulgaria
Vasa E 1:2 Milic O Vasa E
2026-06-23 2026 Plovdiv, Bulgaria
Vasa E 2:1 Dhamne M Vasa E
2026-05-31 2026 Prostejov, Czech Republic, Qualifying
Pokorny L 2:0 Vasa E Vasa E
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMecarelli M - Vasa E

Mecarelli M
0 matches total
Vasa E
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history