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ATP. Monreal. hard International

1 round 04.08.2026 17:15 UTC Match prediction

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

Tennis ATP. Monreal. hard

ATP. Monreal. hard 1-y krug hard 04.08.2026 17:15 UTC Finished

04.08.2026 17:15 UTC 1-y krug Finished

Merida Aguilar D Spain Seed 63

L W W W W

Draxl L Canada Seed 209

L W W W W

2:1 3:6 6:4 6:4

1 2 3 GP

Merida Aguilar D 3 6 6 2

Draxl L 6 4 4 1

1 2 3

Odds

P1 1.63 60.1% BetBoom

P2 2.45 40.0% BetBoom

Stadium: IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers Coverage: hard

Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Spain Country Canada

- Rating -

21 Age 24

188 Height (cm) 185

80 Weight (kg) 79

- Hand -

63 Seed 209

hard Coverage hard

C 0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Merida Aguilar D

63% 12 / 19

63% 12 / 19

Sintetika

no data

clay

11 iz 16

grass

1 iz 2

hard

0 iz 1

Draxl L

25% 1 / 4

25% 1 / 4

Sintetika

no data

clay

1 iz 2

grass

no data

hard

0 iz 2

Head-to-head history

Taymlayn Liam Drasl 0:1 Liam Drasl 0:2 Liam Drasl 0:3 Daniel Merida-Agilar 1:3 Daniel Merida-Agilar 2:3 Liam Drasl 2:4 Liam Drasl 2:5 Daniel Merida-Agilar 3:5 Liam Drasl 3:6 Daniel Merida-Agilar 1:0 Liam Drasl 1 Daniel Merida-Agilar 2:1 Liam Drasl 2 Daniel Merida-Agilar 3:2

Merida Aguilar D meet Draxl L on August 4, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal. hard, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Merida Aguilar D 4-0-1, Draxl L 4-0-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 58% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Merida Aguilar D — 58%

Pure model vs market (1 · Merida Aguilar D): model 52% · market 59% Δ −7 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Merida Aguilar D58.0%

2 · Draxl L42.0%

Model estimate: win Merida Aguilar D 58.0%, win Draxl L 42.0%. Model favourite — Merida Aguilar D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Merida Aguilar D (odds1.70) Score 2:1 confidence 55% ✓ outcome correct · exact score

• Merida-Agilar D: forma PVVVV (4-1)
• Draksl L: forma PVVVV (4-1)
• liniya na pik P1 1.55→1.90 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
• Model backs Merida-Agilar D: probability 55% vs 59% on the line (odds 1.70)
• no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Merida Aguilar D.

Line favourite Fonbet: Merida Aguilar D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.60 / 2 2.35
Glicko: Merida Aguilar D 58.0% / Draxl L 42.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 4 books · best price +1.6%

1 59.3%

2 40.7%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.55 ↑ 1.60

Winner 2 2.45 ↓ 2.35

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 17:02 UTC

1 56% ✓ favourite

2 44%

Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:1

Per AI data Form:LWWWW / LWWWW H2H: 0:0 Injuries:no

Claude updated03.08.2026 14:15 UTC

1 55% ✓ favourite

2 45%

Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:2 Draksl at 2.45 (spravedlivyy 2.22, ROI +10,3%); pri koeffitsiente nizhe 2.30 — pereklyuchitsya na Over 22.5

AI consensus:1

AI	1	2	Score	Total games	Bet
Google AI	56%	44%	2:1	Over 22.5
Claude	55%	45%	2:1	Over 22.5

Match center

Stadium IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers

Start 04.08.2026 17:15 UTC

Market 1 59.5% @ 1.60 / 2 40.5% @ 2.35

Stage 1-y krug

Coverage hard

Form 9 matches

H2H 3

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models Merida Aguilar D 56%

📐 Math model Merida Aguilar D 58%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty tennisnogo matcha Daniel Merida-Agilar - Liam Drasl, 04 avgusta 2026. Monreal. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Daniel Merida-Agilar - Liam Drasl, kto pobedil.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Championat match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad source needed

Referees source needed

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 2:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

Set Merida Aguilar D Draxl L Result

Set 1 3 6 3:6

Set 2 6 4 6:4

Set 3 6 4 6:4

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 58.0% fact: home hit / ROI 63.0% / Brier 0.353 / LogLoss 0.545

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 51.0% fact: home hit / ROI 63.0% / Brier 0.481 / LogLoss 0.674

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Merida Aguilar D 58.6% 58.0% market and model agree

Draxl L 41.4% 42.0%

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 58.0% / 42.0% probabilities

Rating 1,889 / 1,892 Merida Aguilar D / Draxl L

RD 163 / 161 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,562-2,215 / 1,571-2,213 strength interval

HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.35 Fonbet · no value · model 42.0%

1 1.60 Fonbet · no value · model 58.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.20 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 2.40 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 20.5 1.47 Fonbet · line only

Over 21.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
—	—	1.50 66.7%
—	—	1.60 62.5%
—	—	1.70 58.8%
1.97 50.8%	1.98 50.5%	1.90 52.6%
—	—	2.25 44.4%
—	—	2.95 33.9%
—	—	2.40 41.7%
—	—	2.60 38.5%
1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%	2.95 33.9%
—	—	2.20 45.5%
—	—	2.02 49.5%
—	—	1.85 54.1%
—	—	1.57 63.7%
—	—	1.35 74.1%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 20.5	—	—	1.47 68.0%
Over 21.5	—	—	1.60 62.5%
Over 22.5	—	—	1.90 52.6%
Over 23.5	1.97 50.8%	1.98 50.5%	2.07 48.3%
Over 24.5	—	—	2.15 46.5%
Over 25.5	—	—	2.35 42.6%
Over 26.5	—	—	2.65 37.7%
Over 27.5	—	—	2.90 34.5%
Under 20.5	—	—	2.50 40.0%
Under 21.5	—	—	2.20 45.5%
Under 22.5	—	—	1.90 52.6%
Under 23.5	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%	1.67 59.9%
Under 24.5	—	—	1.63 61.4%
Under 25.5	—	—	1.53 65.4%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.55 64.5%	1.61 62.1%	1.60 62.5%	1.63 61.4%
	2.45 40.8%	2.32 43.1%	2.35 42.6%	2.23 44.8%

Match center

Merida Aguilar D

L W W W W

2026-07-21 2026 Estoril, Portugal

Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 1:2 Jacquet K

2026-07-18 2026 Umag, Croatia

Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:1 Dzumhur D

2026-07-17 2026 Umag, Croatia

Merida Aguilar D Burruchaga R A 0:2 Merida Aguilar D

2026-07-16 2026 Umag, Croatia

Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Droguet T

2026-07-15 2026 Umag, Croatia

Merida Aguilar D Etcheverry T M 0:2 Merida Aguilar D

4 Wins

1 Losses

1.8 Sets won

0.6 Sets lost

80% Win percentage

Draxl L

L W W W W

2026-07-26 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Draxl L 0:2 Samuel T Draxl L

2026-07-25 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Mochizuki S 0:2 Draxl L Draxl L

2026-07-24 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Draxl L 2:0 Chidekh C Draxl L

2026-07-23 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Holmgren A 1:2 Draxl L Draxl L

2026-07-21 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Hurrion M 0:2 Draxl L Draxl L

4 Wins

1 Losses

1.6 Sets won

0.6 Sets lost

80% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMerida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Merida Aguilar D

0 matches total

Draxl L

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event