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ATP. Monreal International

1 round 04.08.2026 15:05 UTC Match prediction

Baez S - Bellucci M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

Tennis ATP. Monreal

ATP. Monreal 1-y krug hard 04.08.2026 15:05 UTC Finished

04.08.2026 15:05 UTC 1-y krug Finished

Baez S Argentina Seed 48

L W W L W

Bellucci M Italy Seed 80

L L W W W

2:0 7:5 6:3

1 2 GP

Baez S 7 6 2

Bellucci M 5 3 0

1 2

Odds

P1 1.85 87.5% BetBoom

P2 13.00 12.5% BetBoom

Stadium: IGA Stadium. Vtoroy kort Coverage: hard

Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Argentina Country Italy

- Rating -

25 Age 25

170 Height (cm) 175

70 Weight (kg) 77

Pravsha Hand Levsha

48 Seed 80

hard Coverage hard

0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Baez S

49% 24 / 49

49% 24 / 49

Sintetika

no data

clay

11 iz 23

grass

0 iz 1

hard

13 iz 25

Bellucci M

38% 11 / 29

38% 11 / 29

Sintetika

no data

clay

3 iz 7

grass

3 iz 6

hard

5 iz 16

Head-to-head history

Taymlayn Sebastyan Baes 1:0 Mattiya Belluchchi 1 Sebastyan Baes 2:1 Mattiya Belluchchi 2 Sebastyan Baes 3:2 Mattiya Belluchchi 3 Sebastyan Baes 4:3 Mattiya Belluchchi 4 Sebastyan Baes 5:4 Mattiya Belluchchi 5 Sebastyan Baes 6:5 Sebastyan Baes 7:5 Sebastyan Baes 1:0 Mattiya Belluchchi 1

Baez S go head-to-head with Bellucci M on August 4, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Baez S 3-0-2, Bellucci M 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 52% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Baez S — 52%

Pure model vs market (1 · Baez S): model 53% · market 52% Δ +1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Baez S51.7%

2 · Bellucci M48.3%

Model estimate: win Baez S 51.7%, win Bellucci M 48.3%. Model favourite — Baez S.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Bellucci M (odds1.80) Score 1:2 confidence 52% ✗ outcome missed

• Baes S: forma PVVPV (3-2)
• Model backs Belluchchi M: probability 52% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.80)
• no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Baez S - Bellucci M August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Baez S.

Line favourite Fonbet: Baez S. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / 2 13.00
Glicko: Baez S 51.7% / Bellucci M 48.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 5.6% 4 books

1 51.6%

2 48.4%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 2.02 ↓ 1.02

Winner 2 1.80 ↑ 13.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated04.08.2026 12:58 UTC

1 56% ✓ favourite

2 44%

Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:1

Per AI data H2H: 0:0

Claude updated04.08.2026 13:01 UTC

1 56% ✓ favourite

2 44%

Score2:0 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:1 Baes at 1.87

AI consensus:1

AI	1	2	Score	Total games	Bet
Google AI	56%	44%	2:1	Over 22.5
Claude	56%	44%	2:0	Over 22.5

Match center

Stadium IGA Stadium. Vtoroy kort

Start 04.08.2026 15:05 UTC

Market 1 92.7% @ 1.02 / 2 7.3% @ 13.00

Stage 1-y krug

Coverage hard

Form 9 matches

H2H 3

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models Baez S 56%

📐 Math model Baez S 52%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Baez S - Bellucci M

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty tennisnogo matcha Sebastyan Baes - Mattiya Belluchchi, 04 avgusta 2026. Monreal. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Sebastyan Baes - Mattiya Belluchchi, kto pobedil.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Championat match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad source needed

Referees source needed

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 2:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Set Baez S Bellucci M Result

Set 1 7 5 7:5

Set 2 6 3 6:3

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 51.7% fact: home hit / ROI 85.0% / Brier 0.466 / LogLoss 0.659

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 50.2% fact: home hit / ROI 85.0% / Brier 0.496 / LogLoss 0.689

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Baez S 51.6% 51.7% market and model agree

Bellucci M 48.4% 48.3%

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 51.7% / 48.3% probabilities

Rating 1,528 / 1,500 Baez S / Bellucci M

RD 167 / 350 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,193-1,862 / 800-2,200 strength interval

HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.95 market consensus · no value · model 48.3%

1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 51.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.95 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 19.5 5.10 Fonbet · line only

Over 20.5 1.30 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
1.91 52.4%	—	—
1.91 52.4%	—	1.75 57.1%
—	2.05 48.8%	—
1.87 53.5%	—	2.10 47.6%
—	1.77 56.5%	2.10 47.6%
—	—	2.30 43.5%
—	—	2.80 35.7%
1.87 53.5%	—	1.95 51.3%
—	—	1.87 53.5%
—	—	10.50 9.5%
—	—	5.80 17.2%
—	—	3.60 27.8%
—	—	1.30 76.9%
—	—	5.10 19.6%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 19.5	—	—	5.10 19.6%
Over 20.5	—	—	1.30 76.9%
Over 21.5	—	—	3.50 28.6%
Over 22.5	1.89 52.9%	1.88 53.2%	4.40 22.7%
Over 23.5	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.72 58.1%
Over 24.5	—	—	5.40 18.5%
Over 25.5	—	—	2.30 43.5%
Over 26.5	—	—	2.65 37.7%
Over 27.5	—	—	2.95 33.9%
Under 19.5	—	—	1.13 88.5%
Under 22.5	1.89 52.9%	1.92 52.1%	—
Under 23.5	1.84 54.4%	1.83 54.6%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.85 54.1%	1.84 54.4%	1.02 98.0%	1.83 54.6%
	1.95 51.3%	1.96 51.0%	13.00 7.7%	1.95 51.3%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0

2026-08-04 · Sebastyan Baes 2:0 Mattia Belluchchi

Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.85 (Pari) · 2 2.01 (Winline)

Bookmaker	1	2
Pari	1.85	1.95
Winline	1.79	2.01
Fonbet	1.85	1.95
Betcity	1.82	2

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

2 Eysy 6

4 Dvoynye oshibki 6

7 Vsego breyk-poyntov 6

3 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 1

72 Vyigrannye Points 57

47 Points na podache 37

20 Poteryannye Points na podache 25

40 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 37

23 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 19

31 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 29

16 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 8

6 Maks. ochkov podryad 8

4 Points, vyigrannye iz poslednikh 10 rozygryshey 6

10 Geymy na podache 7

13 Vyigrannye geymy 8

4 Maks. geymov podryad 2

0 Tay-breyk 0

Source: ruscore

Baez S

L W W L W

2026-07-23 2026 Kitzbuhel, Austria

Baez S Hanfmann Y 2:0 Baez S

2026-07-22 2026 Kitzbuhel, Austria

Baez S Baez S 2:1 Rinderknech A

2026-07-21 2026 Kitzbuhel, Austria

Baez S Baez S 2:1 Kecmanovic M

2026-07-17 2026 Bastad, Sweden

Baez S Rublev A 2:0 Baez S

2026-07-16 2026 Bastad, Sweden

Baez S De Jong J 0:2 Baez S

3 Wins

2 Losses

1.2 Sets won

1.2 Sets lost

60% Win percentage

Bellucci M

L L W W W

2026-06-23 2026 Eastbourne, Great Britain

Humbert U 2:1 Bellucci M Bellucci M

2026-06-18 2026 Halle, Germany

Collignon R 2:1 Bellucci M Bellucci M

2026-06-16 2026 Halle, Germany

Bellucci M 2:0 Bublik A Bellucci M

2026-06-14 2026 Halle, Germany, Qualifying

Bellucci M 2:1 Bolt A Bellucci M

2026-06-13 2026 Halle, Germany, Qualifying

Bellucci M 2:0 Kukushkin M Bellucci M

3 Wins

2 Losses

1.6 Sets won

1.0 Sets lost

60% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBaez S - Bellucci M

Baez S

0 matches total

Bellucci M

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event