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ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal International
01.08.2026 17:45 UTC Match prediction

Shimabukuro S - Budkov Kjaer N

Tennis ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal hard 01.08.2026 17:45 UTC Finished
01.08.2026 17:45 UTC Finished
Shimabukuro S
Shimabukuro S
L L L W L
Budkov Kjaer N
Budkov Kjaer N
L L L W W
2:0 6:3 6:4
1 2 GP
Shimabukuro S 6 6 2
Budkov Kjaer N 3 4 0
1 2
Odds
P1 1.74 54.7% BetBoom
P2 2.10 45.3% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Shimabukuro S go head-to-head with Budkov Kjaer N on August 1, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Shimabukuro S 1-0-4, Budkov Kjaer N 2-0-3. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 55% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Shimabukuro S — 55%

Pure model vs market (1 · Shimabukuro S): model 62% · market 92% Δ −30 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Shimabukuro S ✓ Pick55.3%
2 · Budkov Kjaer N44.7%

Model estimate: win Shimabukuro S 55.3%, win Budkov Kjaer N 44.7%. Model favourite — Shimabukuro S.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Shimabukuro S (odds1.67) Score 2:1 confidence 57% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Shimabukuro Sh: forma PPPPV (1-4)
  • • Budkov-Ker N: forma P (0-1)
  • • Model backs Shimabukuro Sh: probability 57% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.67)
  • • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shimabukuro S - Budkov Kjaer N August 1, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Shimabukuro S.

Line favourite Fonbet: Shimabukuro S. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / 2 11.00
  • Glicko: Shimabukuro S 55.3% / Budkov Kjaer N 44.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.1%
1 ✓ Pick 91.5%
2 8.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.68 ↑ 1.73
Winner 2 2.20 ↓ 2.10

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Shimabukuro S
6-4WLLLWWLWWW
scored 1.4conceded 0.8
Budkov Kjaer N

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 01.08.2026 17:45 UTC
Market 1 91.5% @ 1.02 / 2 8.5% @ 11.00
Coverage hard
Form 4 matches
Match center

Shimabukuro S - Budkov Kjaer N

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Shimabukuro S Budkov Kjaer N Result
Set 1 6 3 6:3
Set 2 6 4 6:4
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shimabukuro S 54.6% 55.3% market and model agree
Budkov Kjaer N 45.4% 44.7%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 55.3% / 44.7% probabilities
Rating 1,595 / 1,256 Shimabukuro S / Budkov Kjaer N
RD 130 / 285 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,335-1,855 / 686-1,826 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.06 market consensus · no value · model 44.7%
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 55.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.02 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 16.5 1.15 Fonbet · line only
Over 17.5 4.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.82 55.0% — —
1.88 53.2% 1.96 51.0% —
1.90 52.6% — 2.10 47.6%
1.84 54.4% 1.84 54.4% 2.30 43.5%
— — 2.60 38.5%
— — 3.15 31.8%
— — 2.02 49.5%
— — 1.93 51.8%
— — 2.20 45.5%
— — 12.00 8.3%
— — 6.40 15.6%
— — 1.22 82.0%
— — 4.00 25.0%
— — 1.15 87.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 16.5 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 17.5 — — 4.00 25.0%
Over 18.5 — — 1.20 83.3%
Over 19.5 — — 4.90 20.4%
Over 20.5 — — 1.72 58.1%
Over 21.5 — — 6.10 16.4%
Over 22.5 1.86 53.8% 1.92 52.1% 1.92 52.1%
Over 23.5 — — 2.02 49.5%
Over 24.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
Over 25.5 — — 2.35 42.6%
Over 26.5 — — 2.65 37.7%
Over 27.5 — — 2.90 34.5%
Under 16.5 — — 4.50 22.2%
Under 17.5 — — 1.20 83.3%
Under 22.5 1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.71 58.5% 1.74 57.5% 1.02 98.0% 1.71 58.5%
2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 11.00 9.1% 2.02 49.5%
Match center
Shimabukuro S
L L L W L
2026-07-29 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Shimabukuro S Shimabukuro S 1:2 Pacheco Mendez R
2026-06-30 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Shimabukuro S Shimabukuro S 1:3 Faria J
2026-06-17 2026 Halle, Germany
Shimabukuro S Tiafoe F 2:0 Shimabukuro S
2026-06-16 2026 Halle, Germany
Shimabukuro S Griekspoor T 1:2 Shimabukuro S
2026-06-12 2026 Stuttgart, Germany
Shimabukuro S Shelton B 2:1 Shimabukuro S
1 Wins
4 Losses
1.0 Sets won
2.0 Sets lost
20% Win percentage
Budkov Kjaer N
L L L W W
2026-07-21 2026 Tampere, Finland
Budkov Kjaer N 0:2 Gueymard Wayenburg S Budkov Kjaer N
2026-07-14 2026 Bastad, Sweden
Budkov Kjaer N 0:2 Pellegrino A Budkov Kjaer N
2026-06-25 2026 Wimbledon, London, GB, Qualifying, 3rd Round
Budkov Kjaer N 1:3 Virtanen O Budkov Kjaer N
2026-06-24 2026 Wimbledon, London, GB, Qualifying, 1st - 2nd Round
Budkov Kjaer N 2:0 Dodig M Budkov Kjaer N
2026-06-22 2026 Wimbledon, London, GB, Qualifying, 1st - 2nd Round
Budkov Kjaer N 2:1 Reis da Silva J L Budkov Kjaer N
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage