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ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal International
1 round 04.08.2026 01:50 UTC Match prediction

Ugo Carabelli C - Norrie C

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal 1-y krug hard 04.08.2026 01:50 UTC Finished
04.08.2026 01:50 UTC 1-y krug Finished
Ugo Carabelli C
Ugo Carabelli C Argentina
L L W W W
Norrie C
Norrie C Velikobritaniya
L W W W L
0:2 6:7 4:6
1 2 GP
Ugo Carabelli C 6 4 0
Norrie C 7 6 2
1 2
Odds
P1 4.50 21.6% BetBoom
P2 1.24 78.4% BetBoom
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Argentina Country Velikobritaniya
- Rating -
27 Age 30
185 Height (cm) 188
83 Weight (kg) 82
Pravsha Hand Levsha
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Ugo Carabelli C
40% 17 / 42
40% 17 / 42
Sintetika
no data
clay
12 iz 23
grass
0 iz 1
hard
5 iz 18
Norrie C
52% 26 / 50
52% 26 / 50
Sintetika
no data
clay
5 iz 11
grass
0 iz 2
hard
21 iz 37

Head-to-head history

Monreal

Ugo Carabelli C meet Norrie C on August 4, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Ugo Carabelli C 3-0-2, Norrie C 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 25% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Norrie C — 75%

Pure model vs market (2 · Norrie C): model 55% · market 78% Δ −23 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Ugo Carabelli C24.8%
market22%
2 · Norrie C ✓ Pick75.2%
market78%

Model estimate: win Ugo Carabelli C 24.8%, win Norrie C 75.2%. Model favourite — Norrie C.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Norrie C (odds1.26) Score 1:2 confidence 56% ✓ outcome correct
  • • 🇬🇧 (tennis)
  • • Ugo Karabeli K: forma PPVVP (2-3)
  • • Norri K
  • • 🇬🇧: forma PPVVV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Norri K
  • • 🇬🇧: probability 56% vs 80% on the line (odds 1.26)
  • • no edge over the line (-24 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ugo Carabelli C - Norrie C August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Norrie C.

Line favourite Fonbet: Norrie C. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 14.00 / 2 1.02
  • Glicko: Ugo Carabelli C 24.8% / Norrie C 75.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.4% 4 books · best price +2.1%
1 21.9%
2 ✓ Pick 78.2%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 5.00 ↓ 4.20
Winner 2 1.17 ↑ 1.23

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers
Start 04.08.2026 01:50 UTC
Market 1 6.8% @ 14.00 / 2 93.2% @ 1.02
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 7 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Ugo Carabelli C - Norrie C

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty tennisnogo matcha Kamilo Ugo Karabeli - Kemeron Norri, 04 avgusta 2026. Monreal. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Kamilo Ugo Karabeli - Kemeron Norri, kto pobedil.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Ugo Carabelli C Norrie C Result
Set 1 6 7 6:7
Set 2 4 6 4:6
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 75.2% fact: away hit / ROI 24.0% / Brier 0.123 / LogLoss 0.286
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 53.0% fact: away hit / ROI 24.0% / Brier 0.441 / LogLoss 0.635
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ugo Carabelli C 22.7% 24.8%
Norrie C 77.4% 75.2% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 24.8% / 75.2% probabilities
Rating 1,522 / 1,741 Ugo Carabelli C / Norrie C
RD 187 / 124 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,147-1,896 / 1,493-1,989 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 75.2%
1 4.22 market consensus · no value · model 24.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.16 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 4.60 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 18.5 1.38 Fonbet · line only
Over 19.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 11.50 8.7%
— — 10.50 9.5%
— — 6.20 16.1%
— — 1.20 83.3%
1.89 52.9% 1.92 52.1% 1.45 69.0%
— — 4.60 21.7%
— — 1.01 99.0%
— — 1.01 99.0%
— — 1.09 91.7%
— — 3.95 25.3%
— — 2.50 40.0%
— — 3.15 31.8%
— — 3.40 29.4%
— — 1.16 86.2%
1.89 52.9% 1.88 53.2% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 18.5 — — 1.38 72.5%
Over 19.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Over 20.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 21.5 1.98 50.5% 1.98 50.5% 1.45 69.0%
Over 22.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Over 23.5 — — 4.90 20.4%
Over 24.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 25.5 — — 5.70 17.5%
Over 26.5 — — 9.50 10.5%
Over 28.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
Over 29.5 — — 1.68 59.5%
Over 30.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Over 31.5 — — 2.45 40.8%
Under 18.5 — — 2.80 35.7%
Under 21.5 1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
4.20 23.8% 4.50 22.2% 14.00 7.1% 3.95 25.3%
1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.02 98.0% 1.24 80.7%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1
2026-08-04 · Kamilo Ugo Karabelli 0:2 Kemeron Norri
Source: ruscore

Match stats

5 Eysy 7
2 Dvoynye oshibki 3
2 Vsego breyk-poyntov 4
2 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 3
70 Vyigrannye Points 80
45 Points na podache 47
33 Poteryannye Points na podache 25
44 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 43
32 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 26
32 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 29
13 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 18
5 Maks. ochkov podryad 8
1 Points, vyigrannye iz poslednikh 10 rozygryshey 9
8 Geymy na podache 9
10 Vyigrannye geymy 13
1 Maks. geymov podryad 3
0 Tay-breyk 1
Source: ruscore
Ugo Carabelli C
L L W W W
2026-07-20 2026 Estoril, Portugal
Ugo Carabelli C Droguet T 2:1 Ugo Carabelli C
2026-07-16 2026 Umag, Croatia
Ugo Carabelli C Burruchaga R A 2:1 Ugo Carabelli C
2026-07-15 2026 Umag, Croatia
Ugo Carabelli C Carreno Busta P 1:2 Ugo Carabelli C
2026-07-14 2026 Umag, Croatia
Ugo Carabelli C Topo M 1:2 Ugo Carabelli C
2026-06-29 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Ugo Carabelli C Ugo Carabelli C 2:1 Merida Aguilar D
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Norrie C
L W W W L
2026-08-01 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Norrie C 1:2 Shapovalov D Norrie C
2026-07-31 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Norrie C 2:0 Tomic B Norrie C
2026-07-30 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Norrie C 2:0 Duckworth J Norrie C
2026-07-28 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Norrie C 2:0 Kovacevic A Norrie C
2026-06-29 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Zheng Michael 3:2 Norrie C Norrie C
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.8 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyUgo Carabelli C - Norrie C

Ugo Carabelli C
0 matches total
Norrie C
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Monreal