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ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal International
1 round 04.08.2026 01:50 UTC Match prediction

Ugo Carabelli C - Norrie C

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal 1-y krug hard 04.08.2026 01:50 UTC Finished
04.08.2026 01:50 UTC 1-y krug Finished
Ugo Carabelli C
Ugo Carabelli C Argentina
L L W W W
Norrie C
Norrie C Velikobritaniya
L W W W L
0:2 6:7 4:6
1 2 GP
Ugo Carabelli C 6 4 0
Norrie C 7 6 2
1 2
Odds
P1 4.50 21.6% BetBoom
P2 1.24 78.4% BetBoom
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Argentina Country Velikobritaniya
- Rating -
27 Age 30
185 Height (cm) 188
83 Weight (kg) 82
Pravsha Hand Levsha
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Ugo Carabelli C
40% 17 / 42
40% 17 / 42
Sintetika
no data
clay
12 iz 23
grass
0 iz 1
hard
5 iz 18
Norrie C
52% 26 / 50
52% 26 / 50
Sintetika
no data
clay
5 iz 11
grass
0 iz 2
hard
21 iz 37

Head-to-head history

Monreal

Ugo Carabelli C meet Norrie C on August 4, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Ugo Carabelli C 3-0-2, Norrie C 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 25% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model Β· comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Norrie C β€” 75%

Pure model vs market (2 Β· Norrie C): model 55% Β· market 78% Ξ” βˆ’23 pp model estimates below the market

1 Β· Ugo Carabelli C24.8%
market22%
2 Β· Norrie C ✓ Pick75.2%
market78%

Model estimate: win Ugo Carabelli C 24.8%, win Norrie C 75.2%. Model favourite β€” Norrie C.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Norrie C (odds1.26) Score 1:2 confidence 56% βœ“ outcome correct
  • • πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ (tennis)
  • • Ugo Karabeli K: forma PPVVP (2-3)
  • • Norri K
  • • πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§: forma PPVVV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Norri K
  • • πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§: probability 56% vs 80% on the line (odds 1.26)
  • • no edge over the line (-24 pp) β€” informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ugo Carabelli C - Norrie C August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Norrie C.

Line favourite Fonbet: Norrie C. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 14.00 / 2 1.02
  • Glicko: Ugo Carabelli C 24.8% / Norrie C 75.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.4% 4 books Β· best price +2.1%
1 21.9%
2 ✓ Pick 78.2%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β€” reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line β€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 5.00 ↓ 4.20
Winner 2 1.17 ↑ 1.23

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers
Start 04.08.2026 01:50 UTC
Market 1 6.8% @ 14.00 / 2 93.2% @ 1.02
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 7 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Ugo Carabelli C - Norrie C

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty tennisnogo matcha Kamilo Ugo Karabeli - Kemeron Norri, 04 avgusta 2026. Monreal. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Kamilo Ugo Karabeli - Kemeron Norri, kto pobedil.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Ugo Carabelli C Norrie C Result
Set 1 6 7 6:7
Set 2 4 6 4:6
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 75.2% fact: away hit / ROI 24.0% / Brier 0.123 / LogLoss 0.286
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 53.0% fact: away hit / ROI 24.0% / Brier 0.441 / LogLoss 0.635
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ugo Carabelli C 22.7% 24.8%
Norrie C 77.4% 75.2% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 24.8% / 75.2% probabilities
Rating 1,522 / 1,741 Ugo Carabelli C / Norri K. πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§
RD 187 / 124 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,147-1,896 / 1,493-1,989 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.02 Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 75.2%
1 4.22 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 24.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.16 Fonbet Β· line only
2 +0.5 1.01 Fonbet Β· line only
1 -0.5 4.60 Fonbet Β· line only
Total
Over 18.5 1.38 Fonbet Β· line only
Over 19.5 1.55 Fonbet Β· line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 11.50 8.7%
— — 10.50 9.5%
— — 6.20 16.1%
— — 1.20 83.3%
1.89 52.9% 1.92 52.1% 1.45 69.0%
— — 4.60 21.7%
— — 1.01 99.0%
— — 1.01 99.0%
— — 1.09 91.7%
— — 3.95 25.3%
— — 2.50 40.0%
— — 3.15 31.8%
— — 3.40 29.4%
— — 1.16 86.2%
1.89 52.9% 1.88 53.2% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 18.5 — — 1.38 72.5%
Over 19.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Over 20.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 21.5 1.98 50.5% 1.98 50.5% 1.45 69.0%
Over 22.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Over 23.5 — — 4.90 20.4%
Over 24.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 25.5 — — 5.70 17.5%
Over 26.5 — — 9.50 10.5%
Over 28.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
Over 29.5 — — 1.68 59.5%
Over 30.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Over 31.5 — — 2.45 40.8%
Under 18.5 — — 2.80 35.7%
Under 21.5 1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
4.20 23.8% 4.50 22.2% 14.00 7.1% 3.95 25.3%
1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.02 98.0% 1.24 80.7%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1
2026-08-04 Β· Kamilo Ugo Karabelli 0:2 Kemeron Norri
Source: ruscore

Match stats

5 Eysy 7
2 Dvoynye oshibki 3
2 Vsego breyk-poyntov 4
2 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 3
70 Vyigrannye Points 80
45 Points na podache 47
33 Poteryannye Points na podache 25
44 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 43
32 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 26
32 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 29
13 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 18
5 Maks. ochkov podryad 8
1 Points, vyigrannye iz poslednikh 10 rozygryshey 9
8 Geymy na podache 9
10 Vyigrannye geymy 13
1 Maks. geymov podryad 3
0 Tay-breyk 1
Source: ruscore
Ugo Carabelli C
L L W W W
2026-07-20 2026 Estoril, Portugal
Ugo Carabelli C Droguet T 2:1 Ugo Carabelli C
2026-07-16 2026 Umag, Croatia
Ugo Carabelli C Burruchaga R A 2:1 Ugo Carabelli C
2026-07-15 2026 Umag, Croatia
Ugo Carabelli C Carreno Busta P 1:2 Ugo Carabelli C
2026-07-14 2026 Umag, Croatia
Ugo Carabelli C Topo M 1:2 Ugo Carabelli C
2026-06-29 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Ugo Carabelli C Ugo Carabelli C 2:1 Merida Aguilar D
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Norrie C
L W W W L
2026-08-01 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Norrie C 1:2 Shapovalov D Norrie C
2026-07-31 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Norrie C 2:0 Tomic B Norrie C
2026-07-30 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Norrie C 2:0 Duckworth J Norrie C
2026-07-28 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico
Norrie C 2:0 Kovacevic A Norrie C
2026-06-29 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Zheng Michael 3:2 Norrie C Norrie C
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.8 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyUgo Carabelli C - Norrie C

Ugo Carabelli C
0 matches total
Norrie C
Biggest win β€” largest score margin
Highest-scoring match β€” most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw β€” draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Monreal