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ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal International
3rd round 06.08.2026 23:05 UTC Match prediction

Jodar R - Musetti L

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal 3rd round hard 06.08.2026 23:05 UTC Finished
06.08.2026 23:05 UTC 3rd round Finished
Jodar R
Jodar R Spain
W L W W W
Musetti L
Musetti L Italy
W L W W L
2:0 6:4 6:3
1 2 GP
Jodar R 6 6 2
Musetti L 4 3 0
1 2
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Tsentralnyy kort Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Jodar R Musetti L
Win % 74.6% 0%
Hard % 74.4% 0%
Clay % 75.9% 0%
Grass % 66.7% 0%
Deciding set % 80.6% 0%
Tie-breaks % 46.2% 0%
Titles (total) 4 0
Last 10 WLWWWWLWWL L

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

Spain Country Italy
- Rating -
19 Age 24
191 Height (cm) 185
70 Weight (kg) 78
Pravsha Hand Pravsha
20 Seed 11
hard Coverage hard
1 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Jodar R
72% 33 / 46
72% 33 / 46
Sintetika
no data
clay
19 iz 23
grass
2 iz 3
hard
12 iz 20
Musetti L
65% 35 / 54
65% 35 / 54
Sintetika
no data
clay
6 iz 10
grass
no data
hard
29 iz 44

Head-to-head history

2026
ATP. Monreal
  Jodar R 0 0 0 1 2
  Musetti L 4 1 2 2 3
Odds
P1 1.86 90.1% BetBoom
P2 17.00 9.9% BetBoom

Jodar R face Musetti L on August 6, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Jodar R 4-0-1, Musetti L 3-0-2. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 86% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Jodar R — 86%

Pure model vs market (1 · Jodar R): model 51% · market 76% Δ −25 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Jodar R ✓ Pick86.2%
market76%
2 · Musetti L13.8%
market24%

Model estimate: win Jodar R 86.2%, win Musetti L 13.8%. Model favourite — Jodar R.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Jodar R (odds1.76) Score 2:1 confidence 56% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Khodar R: forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • • Muzetti L: forma VPV (2-1)
  • • liniya na pik P1 1.45→1.67 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
  • • Model backs Khodar R: probability 56% vs 57% on the line (odds 1.76)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Jodar R - Musetti L August 6, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Jodar R.

Line favourite Fonbet: Jodar R. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 2.50
  • Glicko: Jodar R 86.2% / Musetti L 13.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin -0.7% 2 books · best price +29.6%
1 ✓ Pick 75.9%
2 24.1%

Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Betcity, Fonbet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.45 ↓ 1.01
Winner 2 2.75 ↑ 17.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Jodar R
57%
1.86
Musetti L
43%
17.00

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

1Wins0
2.0Average score1.0

Head-to-head matches: 1 · average total 3.0 (goals)

Team form

Jodar R
7-3LWWLWWWWLW
scored 1.7conceded 1.3
Musetti L
6-4LWWLWWLWLW
scored 1.3conceded 0.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated06.08.2026 14:29 UTC
1 50% ✓ favourite
2 50%
Score1:2 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:2
Per AI data H2H: 1-0-0
Claude updated06.08.2026 14:32 UTC
1 55% ✓ favourite
2 45%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 21.5 Bet:Over 21.5 games

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 50% 50% 1:2 Over 22.5
Claude 55% 45% 2:1 Over 21.5 Over 21.5 games
Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Tsentralnyy kort
Start 06.08.2026 23:05 UTC
Market 1 71.2% @ 1.01 / 2 28.8% @ 2.50
Stage 3-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Jodar R 53%
📐 Math model Jodar R 86%
💹 Market Jodar R 76%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Jodar R - Musetti L

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty tennisnogo matcha Rafael Khodar - Lorentso Muzetti, 07 avgusta 2026. Monreal. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Rafael Khodar - Lorentso Muzetti, kto pobedil.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Jodar R Musetti L Result
Set 1 6 4 6:4
Set 2 6 3 6:3
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 86.2% fact: home hit / Brier 0.038 / LogLoss 0.148
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 54.3% fact: home hit / Brier 0.417 / LogLoss 0.610
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Jodar R 90.1% 86.2% market and model agree
Musetti L 9.9% 13.8%
1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 86.2% / 13.8% probabilities
Rating 1,798 / 1,839 Jodar R / Musetti L
RD 181 / 215 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,437-2,159 / 1,409-2,269 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.50 market consensus · no value · model 13.8%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 86.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 17.5 1.14 Fonbet · line only
Over 18.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
— 1.90 52.6%
2.65 37.7% 1.78 56.2%
— 1.01 99.0%
— 1.02 98.0%
— 1.30 76.9%
— 5.30 18.9%
— 1.90 52.6%
1.42 70.4% 1.85 54.1%
— 1.77 56.5%
— 1.85 54.1%
— 2.00 50.0%
— 11.00 9.1%
— 10.00 10.0%
— 3.30 30.3%
— 1.11 90.1%
— 1.14 87.7%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.02 98.0%
1.01 99.0%
11.00 9.1%
11.50 8.7%

Total

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
Over 6.5 1.85 54.1% —
Over 17.5 — 1.14 87.7%
Over 18.5 — 1.40 71.4%
Over 19.5 — 3.25 30.8%
Over 20.5 — 9.00 11.1%
Over 21.5 — 1.90 52.6%
Over 22.5 — 10.50 9.5%
Over 23.5 — 2.70 37.0%
Over 24.5 — 2.25 44.4%
Over 25.5 — 2.50 40.0%
Over 26.5 — 2.80 35.7%
Under 6.5 1.85 54.1% —
Under 17.5 — 4.90 20.4%
Under 18.5 — 2.70 37.0%
Under 19.5 — 1.30 76.9%
Under 20.5 — 1.03 97.1%
Under 21.5 — 1.90 52.6%
Under 22.5 — 1.01 99.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 11.00 9.1%
Under 2.5 1.01 99.0%
Match center
Jodar R
W L W W W
2026-08-05 2026 Montreal, Canada
Jodar R Jodar R 2:1 Moutet C
2026-08-03 2026 Washington, USA
Jodar R Fritz T 2:0 Jodar R
2026-08-02 2026 Washington, USA
Jodar R Jodar R 2:1 Tabilo A
2026-07-31 2026 Washington, USA
Jodar R Jodar R 2:1 Musetti L
2026-07-29 2026 Washington, USA
Jodar R Jodar R 2:0 Nishikori K
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Musetti L
W L W W L
2026-08-05 2026 Montreal, Canada
Mejia N 0:2 Musetti L Musetti L
2026-07-31 2026 Washington, USA
Jodar R 2:1 Musetti L Musetti L
2026-07-29 2026 Washington, USA
Vukic A 1:2 Musetti L Musetti L
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Arnaldi M 0:1 Musetti L Musetti L
2026-05-12 2026 Rome, Italy
Musetti L 0:2 Ruud C Musetti L
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyJodar R - Musetti L

Jodar R
1 matches total
Musetti L
Jodar R: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Musetti L: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Jodar R 2:1 (2026-07-31) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 2026-07-31) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2026-07-31 2026 Washington, USA
Jodar R 2:1 Musetti L