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ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal International
2nd round 05.08.2026 15:05 UTC Match prediction

Mejia N - Musetti L

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP. Monreal
ATP. Monreal 2nd round hard 05.08.2026 15:05 UTC Finished
05.08.2026 15:05 UTC 2nd round Finished
Mejia N
Mejia N Colombia
Rank #13 Elo 2375
L W W L W W L W
Musetti L
Musetti L Italy
Rank #129 Elo 485
L W W L W W L W
0:2 6:7 2:6
1 2 GP
Mejia N 6 2 0
Musetti L 7 6 2
1 2
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers Coverage: hard
Preview

About the athletes

Colombia Country Italy
#13 Rating #129
26 Age 24
183 Height (cm) 185
79 Weight (kg) 78
Right Hand Right
Q Seed 11
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Mejia N Musetti L
Aces per match 3.41 5.33
Double faults per match 2 2.25
Breaks per match 3.24 2.89

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

Form over the last year

Mejia N
67% 2 / 3
67% 2 / 3
Sintetika
no data
clay
no data
grass
1 iz 2
hard
1 iz 1
Musetti L
64% 34 / 53
64% 34 / 53
Sintetika
no data
clay
6 iz 10
grass
no data
hard
28 iz 43

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Lorenzo Musetti
Rank:13 Elo: 2375
L W W L W W L W
Nicolas Mejia
Rank:129 Elo: 485
L W W L W W L W
Elo favourite:Musetti L (edge +1890 Elo)

Hard

Lorenzo MusettiNicolas Mejia
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 62.5% 5 / 8 Matches 47.6% 10 / 21 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 62.2% 23 / 37 Matches 51.3% 20 / 39 Matches

Clay

Lorenzo MusettiNicolas Mejia
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 60.0% 6 / 10 Matches 76.9% 10 / 13 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 60.0% 6 / 10 Matches 81.0% 17 / 21 Matches

Grass

Lorenzo MusettiNicolas Mejia
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 69.6% 16 / 23 Matches 61.0% 25 / 41 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 66.0% 35 / 53 Matches 62.7% 42 / 67 Matches
Current rank 13 129

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia
Prize money (career) $11,379,428 USD $240,424 USD
Rating 13 129
Age 24 26
Height 1.85m 1.83m
Weight 78kg 79kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia
Match Wins 70 % 61 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 61 % 58 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 100 % 100 %
Wins in Straight Sets 43 % 32 %
Wins From Behind 36 % 24 %
Won At Least 1 Set 74 % 71 %
Set 1 Win 57 % 56 %
Set 2 Win 65 % 46 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Match stats (live, tennisstats)

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia
Aces 3 3
Double Faults 3 1
1st serve percentage 57% 68%
1st serve points won 72% (33/46) 73% (33/45)
2nd serve points won 49% (17/35) 71% (15/21)
Break Points Saved 10/12 1/1
1st return points won 27% (12/45) 28% (13/46)
2nd return points won 29% (6/21) 51% (18/35)
Break Points Converted 0/1 2/12
Service Points Won 62% (50/81) 73% (48/66)
Return Points Won 27% (18/66) 38% (31/81)
Total Points Won 46% (68/147) 54% (79/147)
Last 10 balls 2 8
Match points saved 1 0
Service games won 80% (8/10) 100% (10/10)
Return games won 0% (0/10) 20% (2/10)
Total games won 40% (8/20) 60% (12/20)

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-head history

Taymlayn Nikolas Mekhiya 1:0 Lorentso Muzetti 1 Nikolas Mekhiya 2:1 Lorentso Muzetti 2 Nikolas Mekhiya 3:2 Lorentso Muzetti 3 Nikolas Mekhiya 4:3 Lorentso Muzetti 4 Nikolas Mekhiya 5:4 Lorentso Muzetti 5 Nikolas Mekhiya 6:5 Lorentso Muzetti 6 Lorentso Muzetti 6:7 Lorentso Muzetti 0:1 Lorentso Muzetti 0:2

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.26 10.22 10.24
Over 6.5 94 % 94 % 94 %
Over 7.5 89 % 92 % 91 %
Over 8.5 89 % 86 % 88 %
Over 9.5 61 % 56 % 59 %
Over 10.5 39 % 31 % 35 %
Over 11.5 39 % 31 % 35 %

Aces

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia Match total
Aces Per Match 3.41 5.33 8.74
Most Aces in a match 29 % 44 % N/A
1+ 100 % 100 % 100 %
2+ 88 % 86 % 99 %
3+ 59 % 78 % 93 %
4+ 29 % 69 % 84 %
5+ 29 % 56 % 73 %

Breaks

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia Match total
Breaks Per Match 3.24 2.89 6.13
Over 0.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 94 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 41 % 53 % 99 %
Over 3.5 29 % 6 % 97 %
Over 4.5 29 % 0 % 88 %
Over 5.5 0 % 0 % 87 %

Tie-breaks

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.33 0.44 0.39
Over 0.5 33 % 36 % 35 %
Over 1.5 0 % 8 % 4 %
Under 0.5 67 % 64 % 35 %
Under 1.5 100 % 92 % 4 %

Double faults

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2 2.25 4.25
Over 0.5 (1+) 82 % 86 % 94 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 65 % 61 % 93 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 29 % 39 % 77 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 12 % 25 % 63 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 6 % 6 % 47 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 6 % 3 % 39 %

Net points

Lorenzo Musetti Nicolas Mejia Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 9.96 7.33 17.29
Over 4.5 (5+) 57 % 67 % 62 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 43 % 46 % 45 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 43 % 42 % 43 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 29 % 33 % 31 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 29 % 13 % 21 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 21 % 8 % 15 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 16.00 6.5% BetBoom
P2 1.12 93.5% BetBoom

Mejia N face Musetti L on August 5, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Mejia N 4-0-1, Musetti L 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 18% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Musetti L — 82%

1 · Mejia N18.2%
market14%
2 · Musetti L ✓ Pick81.8%
market86%

Model estimate: win Mejia N 18.2%, win Musetti L 81.8%. Model favourite — Musetti L.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mejia N - Musetti L August 5, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Musetti L.

Line favourite Fonbet: Musetti L. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 6.60 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Mejia N 18.2% / Musetti L 81.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 3 books · best price +1.8%
1 14.3%
2 ✓ Pick 85.7%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 6.40 ↑ 16.00
Winner 2 1.12 ↓ 1.01

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Mejia N
15%
16.00
Musetti L
85%
1.12
Total
Over 20.5
48%
2.01
Under 20.5
52%
2.90

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Mejia N

no data

Musetti L
6-4LWWLWWLWLW
scored 1.3conceded 0.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated05.08.2026 16:33 UTC
1 18%
2 82% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: Under 21.5 Bet:Pob. Muzetti s tochnym schetom 2:0 po setam
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
Claude updated05.08.2026 16:35 UTC
1 16%
2 84% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: Over 21.5 Bet:2 (win Muzetti) pri kefe ot 1.20; alternativa — Over 21.5 games

AI consensus:2

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 18% 82% 0:2 Under 21.5 Pob. Muzetti s tochnym schetom 2:0 po setam
Claude 16% 84% 0:2 Over 21.5
Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers
Start 05.08.2026 15:05 UTC
Market 1 13.3% @ 6.60 / 2 86.7% @ 1.01
Stage 2-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 3
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Musetti L 83%
📐 Math model Musetti L 82%
💹 Market Musetti L 86%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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$10,000Virtual balance

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Match center

Mejia N - Musetti L

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty tennisnogo matcha Nikolas Mekhiya - Lorentso Muzetti, 05 avgusta 2026. Monreal. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Nikolas Mekhiya - Lorentso Muzetti, kto pobedil.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 24
Set Mejia N Musetti L Result
Set 1 6 7 6:7
Set 2 2 6 2:6
Metric Mejia N Musetti L SStats
Nevynuzhdennye oshibki 0 0 final
Vinnery 0 0 final
Breyk-poynty realizovany 2/12 0/1 final
Points na prieme 38% (31/81) 27% (18/66) final
Eysy 3 3 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 1/1 10/12 final
Dvoynye oshibki 1 3 final
Pervaya podacha, % 68% 57% final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 81.8% fact: away hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.066 / LogLoss 0.201
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 53.8% fact: away hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.427 / LogLoss 0.620
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Mejia N 14.7% 25.2%
Musetti L 85.3% 74.8% model more cautious than market
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko18.2% · +Elo prior (weight0.54).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 18.2% / 81.8% probabilities
Rating 1,715 / 1,785 Mejia N / Musetti L
RD 193 / 252 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,330-2,101 / 1,280-2,289 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 81.8%
1 6.45 market consensus · no value · model 18.2%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.12 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 5.20 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 17.5 1.28 Fonbet · line only
Over 18.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
5.20 19.2% —
2.65 37.7% —
10.00 10.0% —
11.00 9.1% —
3.00 33.3% —
1.35 74.1% —
1.16 86.2% —
1.12 89.3% —
1.12 89.3% —
1.43 69.9% —
1.02 98.0% —
1.01 99.0% —
1.37 73.0% —
2.90 34.5% —
4.60 21.7% —
5.30 18.9% —
— 1.66 60.2%
— 2.14 46.7%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
11.00 9.1%
10.50 9.5%
1.03 97.1%
1.01 99.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 17.5 1.28 78.1%
Over 18.5 1.40 71.4%
Over 19.5 1.16 86.2%
Over 20.5 1.35 74.1%
Over 21.5 3.00 33.3%
Over 22.5 11.00 9.1%
Over 23.5 11.00 9.1%
Over 24.5 1.67 59.9%
Over 25.5 3.55 28.2%
Over 26.5 2.35 42.6%
Over 27.5 1.73 57.8%
Over 28.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 29.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 30.5 2.10 47.6%
Under 17.5 3.30 30.3%
Under 18.5 2.70 37.0%
Under 19.5 4.60 21.7%
Under 20.5 2.90 34.5%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 11.00 9.1%
Under 2.5 1.01 99.0%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1
2026-08-05 · Nikolas Mekhiya 0:2 Lorentso Muzetti
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 6.7 (Betcity) · 2 1.12 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 6.1 1.12
Winline 6.3 1.12
Fonbet 6.1 1.12
Betcity 6.7 1.11
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

3 Eysy 3
3 Dvoynye oshibki 1
1 Vsego breyk-poyntov 12
0 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 2
68 Vyigrannye Points 79
50 Points na podache 48
31 Poteryannye Points na podache 18
48 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 45
30 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 20
34 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 33
16 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 15
5 Maks. ochkov podryad 6
2 Points, vyigrannye iz poslednikh 10 rozygryshey 8
8 Geymy na podache 10
8 Vyigrannye geymy 13
1 Maks. geymov podryad 5
0 Tay-breyk 1
Source: ruscore
Mejia N
W W L W W
2026-08-03 2026 Montreal, Canada
Mejia N Mejia N 2:1 Landaluce M
2026-08-01 2026 Montreal, Canada, Qualifying
Mejia N Trungelliti M 1:2 Mejia N
2026-07-26 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico, Qualifying
Mejia N Mejia N 0:2 Hernandez Alex
2026-07-12 2026 Bogota, Colombia
Mejia N Mejia N 2:0 Soto M
2026-07-11 2026 Bogota, Colombia
Mejia N Mejia N 2:1 Varillas J P
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Musetti L
L W W L W
2026-07-31 2026 Washington, USA
Jodar R 2:1 Musetti L Musetti L
2026-07-29 2026 Washington, USA
Vukic A 1:2 Musetti L Musetti L
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Arnaldi M 0:1 Musetti L Musetti L
2026-05-12 2026 Rome, Italy
Musetti L 0:2 Ruud C Musetti L
2026-05-10 2026 Rome, Italy
Musetti L 2:0 Cerundolo F Musetti L
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMejia N - Musetti L

Mejia N
0 matches total
Musetti L
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Taymlayn Nikolas Mekhiya 1:0 Lorentso Muzetti 1 Nikolas Mekhiya 2:1 Lorentso Muzetti 2 Nikolas Mekhiya 3:2 Lorentso Muzetti 3 Nikolas Mekhiya 4:3 Lorentso Muzetti 4 Nikolas Mekhiya 5:4 Lorentso Muzetti 5 Nikolas Mekhiya 6:5 Lorentso Muzetti 6 Lorentso Muzetti 6:7 Lorentso Muzetti 0:1 Lorentso Muzetti 0:2