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ATP. Monreal International

2nd round 04.08.2026 23:05 UTC Match prediction

Tiafoe F - Cilic M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

Tennis ATP. Monreal

ATP. Monreal 2nd round hard 04.08.2026 23:05 UTC Finished

04.08.2026 23:05 UTC 2nd round Finished

Tiafoe F USA

L L W W W

Cilic M Croatia

W L L L W

2:1 5:7 6:2 6:2

1 2 3 GP

Tiafoe F 5 6 6 2

Cilic M 7 2 2 1

1 2 3

Stadium: IGA Stadium. Tsentralnyy kort Coverage: hard

Preview

About the athletes

USA Country Croatia

- Rating -

28 Age 37

188 Height (cm) 198

86 Weight (kg) 89

Pravsha Hand Pravsha

15 Seed 0

hard Coverage hard

2 H2H 2

Form over the last year

Tiafoe F

66% 35 / 53

66% 35 / 53

Sintetika

no data

clay

7 iz 11

grass

9 iz 11

hard

19 iz 31

Cilic M

46% 17 / 37

46% 17 / 37

Sintetika

no data

clay

3 iz 8

grass

2 iz 5

hard

12 iz 24

Head-to-head history

2018

ATP. Monreal

Tiafoe F 0

Cilic M 0

2017

ATP. Monreal

Tiafoe F 0

Cilic M 0

Odds

P1 1.61 63.1% BetBoom

P2 2.75 36.9% BetBoom

Tiafoe F face Cilic M on August 4, 2026 in the ATP. Monreal, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Tiafoe F 3-0-2, Cilic M 2-0-3. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 64% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Tiafoe F — 64%

Pure model vs market (1 · Tiafoe F): model 56% · market 65% Δ −9 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Tiafoe F ✓ Pick63.9%

market65%

2 · Cilic M36.1%

market35%

Model estimate: win Tiafoe F 63.9%, win Cilic M 36.1%. Model favourite — Tiafoe F.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Tiafoe F (odds1.60) Score 2:1 confidence 56% ✓ outcome correct · exact score

• Tiafo F: forma PPVVP (2-3)
• Model backs Tiafo F: probability 56% vs 62% on the line (odds 1.60)
• no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Tiafoe F - Cilic M August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Tiafoe F.

Line favourite Fonbet: Tiafoe F. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 15.00
Glicko: Tiafoe F 63.9% / Cilic M 36.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 5.7% 3 books · best price +9.5%

1 ✓ Pick 64.8%

2 35.3%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.60 ↓ 1.45

Winner 2 2.35 ↑ 2.75

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Tiafoe F

63%

1.61

Cilic M

37%

15.00

Total

Over 22.5

52%

1.83

Under 22.5

48%

2.00

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Tiafoe F

8-2WWWWWWWLLW

scored 2.1conceded 0.9

Cilic M

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center

Stadium IGA Stadium. Tsentralnyy kort

Start 04.08.2026 23:05 UTC

Market 1 93.7% @ 1.01 / 2 6.3% @ 15.00

Stage 2-y krug

Coverage hard

Form 9 matches

H2H 2

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Tiafoe F 64%

💹 Market Tiafoe F 65%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Tiafoe F - Cilic M

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty tennisnogo matcha Frensis Tiafo - Marin Chilich, 05 avgusta 2026. Monreal. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Frensis Tiafo - Marin Chilich, kto pobedil.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Championat match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad source needed

Referees source needed

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 2:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

Set Tiafoe F Cilic M Result

Set 1 5 7 5:7

Set 2 6 2 6:2

Set 3 6 2 6:2

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 63.9% fact: home hit / ROI 61.0% / Brier 0.261 / LogLoss 0.448

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 51.7% fact: home hit / ROI 61.0% / Brier 0.467 / LogLoss 0.660

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Tiafoe F 64.8% 63.9% market and model agree

Cilic M 35.3% 36.1%

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 63.9% / 36.1% probabilities

Rating 1,636 / 1,500 Tiafoe F / Cilic M

RD 135 / 350 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,365-1,907 / 800-2,200 strength interval

HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.49 market consensus · no value · model 36.1%

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 63.9%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.85 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 2.65 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.22 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.42 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 20.5 1.37 Fonbet · line only

Over 21.5 1.48 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Baltbet	Fonbet
	—	1.22 82.0%
	1.79 55.9%	1.40 71.4%
	1.87 53.5%	1.25 80.0%
	—	2.65 37.7%
	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%
	1.91 52.4%	1.72 58.1%
	—	2.50 40.0%
	—	3.85 26.0%
	—	2.75 36.4%
	—	3.55 28.2%
	—	7.20 13.9%
	—	10.50 9.5%
	—	8.50 11.8%
	—	1.11 90.1%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Fonbet
Over 20.5	—	1.37 73.0%
Over 21.5	—	1.48 67.6%
Over 22.5	1.83 54.6%	1.73 57.8%
Over 23.5	2.03 49.3%	1.62 61.7%
Over 24.5	—	1.57 63.7%
Over 25.5	—	1.93 51.8%
Over 26.5	—	2.15 46.5%
Over 27.5	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 28.5	—	8.50 11.8%
Over 29.5	—	10.50 9.5%
Over 30.5	—	7.00 14.3%
Over 31.5	—	2.55 39.2%
Over 32.5	—	3.45 29.0%
Under 20.5	—	2.85 35.1%
Under 22.5	1.96 51.0%	—
Under 23.5	1.77 56.5%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Fonbet	Leon
	1.47 68.0%	1.01 99.0%	1.61 62.1%
	2.70 37.0%	15.00 6.7%	2.28 43.9%

Match center

Tiafoe F

L L W W W

2026-07-28 2026 Washington, USA

Tiafoe F Tiafoe F 1:2 Atmane T

2026-07-04 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain

Tiafoe F Tiafoe F 2:3 Bublik A

2026-07-02 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain

Tiafoe F Tiafoe F 3:1 Choinski J

2026-06-30 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain

Tiafoe F Tiafoe F 3:1 Atmane T

2026-06-21 2026 Halle, Germany

Tiafoe F Fritz T 0:2 Tiafoe F

3 Wins

2 Losses

2.2 Sets won

1.4 Sets lost

60% Win percentage

Cilic M

W L L L W

2026-08-03 2026 Montreal, Canada

Shimabukuro S 0:2 Cilic M Cilic M

2026-06-29 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain

Cilic M 0:3 Medvedev D Cilic M

2026-06-16 2026 London, Great Britain

Humbert U 2:0 Cilic M Cilic M

2026-06-12 2026 s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands

Medvedev D 2:1 Cilic M Cilic M

2026-06-11 2026 s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands

Borges N 1:2 Cilic M Cilic M

2 Wins

3 Losses

1.0 Sets won

1.6 Sets lost

40% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyTiafoe F - Cilic M

Tiafoe F

0 matches total

Cilic M

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event

2018 Cup Devisa. Mirovaya Group hard 1/2 finala M. Marin Chilich Marin Chilich (Croatia) 3 6 7 F. Frensis Tiafo Frensis Tiafo 🇺🇸 0 1 3 6

Event

2017 Cup Leyvera hard Final M. Marin Chilich Marin Chilich (Croatia) 2 7 F. Frensis Tiafo Frensis Tiafo 🇺🇸 0 6