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ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
2nd round 05.08.2026 22:35 UTC Match prediction

Humbert U - Merida Aguilar D

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard 2nd round hard 05.08.2026 22:35 UTC Finished
05.08.2026 22:35 UTC 2nd round Finished
Humbert U
Humbert U France
Rank #28 Elo 1625
L W L L W W W W
Merida Aguilar D
Merida Aguilar D Spain
Rank #63 Elo 925
L W W W W L W W
0:2 3:6 3:6
1 2 GP
Humbert U 3 3 0
Merida Aguilar D 6 6 2
1 2
Odds
P1 10.00 23.1% BetBoom
P2 3.00 76.9% BetBoom
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Devyatyy kort Coverage: hard
Preview

About the athletes

France Country Spain
#28 Rating #63
28 Age 21
188 Height (cm) 188
73 Weight (kg) 80
Left Hand Right
28 Seed 63
hard Coverage hard
D 0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Humbert U Merida Aguilar D
Aces per match 7.30 3.02
Double faults per match 2.77 2.6
Breaks per match 1.09 2.42

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

Form over the last year

Humbert U
57% 34 / 60
57% 34 / 60
Sintetika
no data
clay
5 iz 10
grass
8 iz 12
hard
21 iz 38
Merida Aguilar D
65% 13 / 20
65% 13 / 20
Sintetika
no data
clay
11 iz 16
grass
1 iz 2
hard
1 iz 2

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Ugo Humbert
Rank:28 Elo: 1625
L W L L W W W W
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Rank:63 Elo: 925
L W W W W L W W
Elo favourite:Humbert U (edge +700 Elo)

Hard

Ugo HumbertDaniel Merida Aguilar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 57.1% 12 / 21 Matches 68.4% 13 / 19 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 54.3% 19 / 35 Matches 64.3% 18 / 28 Matches

Clay

Ugo HumbertDaniel Merida Aguilar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 50.0% 4 / 8 Matches 71.4% 20 / 28 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 50.0% 4 / 8 Matches 67.4% 29 / 43 Matches

Grass

Ugo HumbertDaniel Merida Aguilar
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 72.7% 8 / 11 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 72.7% 8 / 11 Matches 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 56.8% 25 / 44 Matches 64.2% 34 / 53 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 55.2% 32 / 58 Matches 62.3% 48 / 77 Matches
Current rank 28 63

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar
Prize money (career) $9,709,403 USD $79,610 USD
Rating 28 63
Age 28 21
Height 1.88m 1.88m
Weight 73kg 80kg
Playing hand Left-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar
Match Wins 57 % 64 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 60 % 69 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 33 % 0 %
Wins in Straight Sets 43 % 38 %
Wins From Behind 5 % 25 %
Won At Least 1 Set 80 % 85 %
Set 1 Win 64 % 60 %
Set 2 Win 57 % 60 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-head history

Taymlayn Daniel Merida-Agilar 0:1 Daniel Merida-Agilar 0:2 Ugo Umber 1:2 Daniel Merida-Agilar 1:3 Ugo Umber 2:3 Daniel Merida-Agilar 2:4 Ugo Umber 3:4 Daniel Merida-Agilar 3:5 Daniel Merida-Agilar 3:6 Daniel Merida-Agilar 0:1 Daniel Merida-Agilar 0:2 Daniel Merida-Agil

Humbert U face Merida Aguilar D on August 5, 2026 in the ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard.

Recent form (W-D-L): Humbert U 2-0-3, Merida Aguilar D 4-0-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 66% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Humbert U — 66%

Pure model vs market (1 · Humbert U): model 50% · market 68% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Humbert U ✓ Pick66.1%
market68%
2 · Merida Aguilar D33.9%
market32%

Model estimate: win Humbert U 66.1%, win Merida Aguilar D 33.9%. Model favourite — Humbert U.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Humbert U (odds1.35) Score 2:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Umber U
  • • 🇫🇷 — Merida Agilar D
  • • 🇪🇸 (tennis)
  • • Umber U
  • • 🇫🇷: forma V (1-0)
  • • Merida Agilar D
  • • 🇪🇸: forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • • Model backs Umber U
  • • 🇫🇷: probability 50% vs 74% on the line (odds 1.35)
  • • no edge over the line (-24 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Humbert U - Merida Aguilar D August 5, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Merida Aguilar D.

Line favourite Fonbet: Merida Aguilar D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 10.00 / 2 1.04
  • Glicko: Humbert U 66.1% / Merida Aguilar D 33.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.8% 4 books · best price +616.9%
1 ✓ Pick 67.9%
2 32.1%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.35 ↑ 10.00
Winner 2 3.20 ↓ 1.04

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Humbert U

no data

Merida Aguilar D
5-5LWWLLLWWWL
scored 1.2conceded 1.3

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated05.08.2026 21:06 UTC
1 55% ✓ favourite
2 45%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:Over 22.5
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
Claude updated05.08.2026 21:10 UTC
1 69% ✓ favourite
2 31%
Score2:0 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:Over 22.5 games (kef 1.85+); Result 1 — vernyy, no bez tsennosti pri 1.40

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 55% 45% 2:1 Over 22.5 Over 22.5
Claude 69% 31% 2:0 Over 22.5 Over 22.5 games (kef 1.85+); Result 1 — vernyy, no bez tsennosti pri 1.40
Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Devyatyy kort
Start 05.08.2026 22:35 UTC
Market 1 9.4% @ 10.00 / 2 90.6% @ 1.04
Stage 2-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 3
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Humbert U 62%
📐 Math model Humbert U 66%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Humbert U - Merida Aguilar D

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty tennisnogo matcha Ugo Umber - Daniel Merida-Agilar, 06 avgusta 2026. Monreal. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Ugo Umber - Daniel Merida-Agilar, kto pobedil.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Humbert U Merida Aguilar D Result
Set 1 3 6 3:6
Set 2 3 6 3:6
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Humbert U 67.9% 61.4% market and model agree
Merida Aguilar D 32.1% 38.6% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko66.1% · +Elo prior (weight0.52).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 66.1% / 33.9% probabilities
Rating 1,658 / 1,711 Humbert U / Merida Aguilar D
RD 295 / 136 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,068-2,249 / 1,438-1,983 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 33.9%
1 10.00 Fonbet · weak value +561.3% · model 66.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.15 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 15.5 1.28 Fonbet · line only
Over 16.5 1.27 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.85 54.1% 1.88 53.2% —
— — 1.63 61.4%
— — 1.70 58.8%
— — 1.53 65.4%
1.94 51.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.04 96.2%
— — 1.14 87.7%
— — 1.30 76.9%
— — 4.60 21.7%
— — 3.40 29.4%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.68 59.5%
— — 1.90 52.6%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 1.67 59.9%
— — 1.32 75.8%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
6.50 15.4%
10.50 9.5%
1.02 98.0%
1.08 92.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 15.5 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 16.5 — — 1.27 78.7%
Over 17.5 — — 1.16 86.2%
Over 18.5 — — 3.20 31.3%
Over 19.5 — — 4.00 25.0%
Over 20.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
Over 21.5 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1% 4.60 21.7%
Over 22.5 1.99 50.3% 2.04 49.0% 2.20 45.5%
Over 23.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 24.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Under 21.5 1.97 50.8% 1.95 51.3% —
Under 22.5 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 6.50 15.4%
Under 2.5 1.08 92.6%

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.61 9.32 9.47
Over 6.5 98 % 94 % 96 %
Over 7.5 88 % 81 % 85 %
Over 8.5 83 % 67 % 75 %
Over 9.5 48 % 38 % 43 %
Over 10.5 20 % 21 % 21 %
Over 11.5 20 % 21 % 21 %

Aces

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Aces Per Match 7.30 3.02 10.32
Most Aces in a match 63 % 50 % N/A
1+ 98 % 90 % 99 %
2+ 93 % 71 % 96 %
3+ 85 % 52 % 90 %
4+ 73 % 29 % 75 %
5+ 68 % 17 % 67 %

Breaks

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.09 2.42 3.51
Over 0.5 60 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 58 % 48 % 99 %
Over 2.5 5 % 48 % 29 %
Over 3.5 3 % 46 % 26 %
Over 4.5 0 % 46 % 25 %
Over 5.5 0 % 6 % 24 %

Tie-breaks

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.5 0.25 0.38
Over 0.5 38 % 23 % 30 %
Over 1.5 13 % 2 % 7 %
Under 0.5 63 % 77 % 30 %
Under 1.5 88 % 98 % 7 %

Double faults

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.77 2.6 5.37
Over 0.5 (1+) 98 % 83 % 98 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 80 % 67 % 94 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 45 % 48 % 86 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 30 % 27 % 72 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 23 % 15 % 50 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 3 % 10 % 35 %

Net points

Ugo Humbert Daniel Merida Aguilar Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 4.93 6.62 11.55
Over 4.5 (5+) 53 % 33 % 43 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 40 % 18 % 29 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 30 % 10 % 20 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 20 % 5 % 13 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 20 % 5 % 13 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 20 % 5 % 13 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Match center

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.43 (Betcity) · 2 3.15 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.35 3.15
Winline 1.36 3.15
Fonbet 1.35 3.15
Betcity 1.43 2.85
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Humbert U
L W L L W
2026-07-30 2026 Washington, USA
Humbert U Humbert U 1:2 Shelton B
2026-07-28 2026 Washington, USA
Humbert U Humbert U 2:0 Martin Andres
2026-06-30 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Humbert U Humbert U 2:3 Bergs Z
2026-06-27 2026 Eastbourne, Great Britain
Humbert U Bergs Z 2:1 Humbert U
2026-06-26 2026 Eastbourne, Great Britain
Humbert U Draper J 0:2 Humbert U
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Merida Aguilar D
W L W W W
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Merida Aguilar D 2:1 Draxl L Merida Aguilar D
2026-07-21 2026 Estoril, Portugal
Merida Aguilar D 1:2 Jacquet K Merida Aguilar D
2026-07-18 2026 Umag, Croatia
Merida Aguilar D 2:1 Dzumhur D Merida Aguilar D
2026-07-17 2026 Umag, Croatia
Burruchaga R A 0:2 Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D
2026-07-16 2026 Umag, Croatia
Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Droguet T Merida Aguilar D
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.8 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyHumbert U - Merida Aguilar D

Humbert U
0 matches total
Merida Aguilar D
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
Taymlayn Daniel Merida-Agilar 0:1 Daniel Merida-Agilar 0:2 Ugo Umber 1:2 Daniel Merida-Agilar 1:3 Ugo Umber 2:3 Daniel Merida-Agilar 2:4 Ugo Umber 3:4 Daniel Merida-Agilar 3:5 Daniel Merida-Agilar 3:6 Daniel Merida-Agilar 0:1 Daniel Merida-Agilar 0:2 Daniel Merida-Agil