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ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
2nd round 05.08.2026 21:55 UTC Match prediction

Marozsan F - Arnaldi M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard 2nd round hard 05.08.2026 21:55 UTC Finished
05.08.2026 21:55 UTC 2nd round Finished
Marozsan F
Marozsan F Hungary
W L W L W
Arnaldi M
Arnaldi M Italy
L L W L L
1:2
Odds
P1 1.61 59.3% BetBoom
P2 2.35 40.7% BetBoom
Stadium: IGA Stadium. Vtoroy kort Coverage: hard
Preview

About the athletes

Hungary Country Italy
- Rating -
26 Age 25
193 Height (cm) 185
75 Weight (kg) 71
Pravsha Hand Pravsha
61 Seed 35
hard Coverage hard
Posev 30 0 H2H 1

Form over the last year

Marozsan F
48% 22 / 46
48% 22 / 46
Sintetika
no data
clay
5 iz 11
grass
4 iz 9
hard
13 iz 26
Arnaldi M
36% 10 / 28
36% 10 / 28
Sintetika
no data
clay
8 iz 13
grass
0 iz 2
hard
2 iz 13

Head-to-head history

2025
ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard
  Marozsan F 0
  Arnaldi M 0

Marozsan F face Arnaldi M on August 5, 2026 in the ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard.

Recent form (W-D-L): Marozsan F 3-0-2, Arnaldi M 1-0-4. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 58% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Marozsan F — 58%

Pure model vs market (1 · Marozsan F): model 51% · market 57% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Marozsan F58.2%
market57%
2 · Arnaldi M41.8%
market43%

Model estimate: win Marozsan F 58.2%, win Arnaldi M 41.8%. Model favourite — Marozsan F.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Marozsan F (odds1.64) Score 2:1 confidence 58% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Marozhan F
  • • 🇭🇺 — Arnaldi M
  • • 🇮🇹 (tennis)
  • • Marozhan F
  • • 🇭🇺: forma VPPPP (1-4)
  • • Arnaldi M
  • • 🇮🇹: forma PPPVV (2-3)
  • • Model backs Marozhan F
  • • 🇭🇺: probability 58% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.64)
  • • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marozsan F - Arnaldi M August 5, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arnaldi M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Arnaldi M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.45 / 2 1.50
  • Glicko: Marozsan F 58.2% / Arnaldi M 41.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.8% 4 books · best price +48.5%
1 57.3%
2 42.7%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Marozsan F
4-6WLWLWLWLLL
scored 1.0conceded 1.4
Arnaldi M

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Stadium IGA Stadium. Vtoroy kort
Start 05.08.2026 21:55 UTC
Market 1 38.0% @ 2.45 / 2 62.0% @ 1.50
Stage 2-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 1
Match center

Marozsan F - Arnaldi M

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Fabian Marozhan - Matteo Arnaldi. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Overview
More needed
Lineup / squad source needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Marozsan F 59.1% 58.2% market and model agree
Arnaldi M 41.0% 41.8%
1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 58.2% / 41.8% probabilities
Rating 1,468 / 1,514 Marozsan F / Arnaldi M
RD 199 / 162 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,069-1,866 / 1,190-1,838 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.50 Fonbet · no value · model 41.8%
1 2.45 Fonbet · value +42.6% · model 58.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 3.70 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.23 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 22.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
Over 25.5 1.77 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.60 62.5%
1.82 55.0% 1.82 55.0% 1.52 65.8%
1.96 51.0% — 2.40 41.7%
— — 3.70 27.0%
1.97 50.8% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0%
1.83 54.6% — 2.05 48.8%
— — 2.15 46.5%
— — 2.25 44.4%
— — 2.35 42.6%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— — 1.08 92.6%
— — 1.30 76.9%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
13.00 7.7%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 22.5 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 25.5 — — 1.77 56.5%
Over 26.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 27.5 — — 1.63 61.4%
Over 28.5 — — 1.25 80.0%
Over 29.5 — — 1.23 81.3%
Over 30.5 — — 1.35 74.1%
Over 31.5 — — 3.00 33.3%
Over 32.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
Under 22.5 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 25.5 — — 1.93 51.8%
Under 26.5 — — 2.02 49.5%
Under 27.5 — — 2.15 46.5%
Under 28.5 — — 3.55 28.2%
Under 29.5 — — 3.70 27.0%
Under 30.5 — — 3.00 33.3%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.01 99.0%
Under 2.5 13.00 7.7%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1
2025-05-21 · Fabian Marozhan 0:2 Matteo Arnaldi
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.66 (Betcity) · 2 2.26 (Winline)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.63 2.25
Winline 1.64 2.26
Fonbet 1.63 2.25
Betcity 1.66 2.2
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Marozsan F
W L W L W
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Marozsan F Mochizuki S 0:2 Marozsan F
2026-07-01 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Marozsan F Davidovich Fokina A 3:0 Marozsan F
2026-06-29 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Marozsan F Tirante T A 0:3 Marozsan F
2026-06-26 2026 Mallorca, Spain
Marozsan F Marozsan F 1:2 Davidovich Fokina A
2026-06-25 2026 Mallorca, Spain
Marozsan F Kecmanovic M 0:2 Marozsan F
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Arnaldi M
L L W L L
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Arnaldi M 0:1 Musetti L Arnaldi M
2026-07-16 2026 Umag, Croatia
Dzumhur D 2:1 Arnaldi M Arnaldi M
2026-07-15 2026 Umag, Croatia
Gomez F A 1:2 Arnaldi M Arnaldi M
2026-06-30 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain
Arnaldi M 1:3 Halys Q Arnaldi M
2026-06-23 2026 Eastbourne, Great Britain
Arnaldi M 0:2 Hussey G Arnaldi M
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.8 Sets won
1.8 Sets lost
20% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMarozsan F - Arnaldi M

Marozsan F
0 matches total
Arnaldi M
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event
2025 Zheneva clay 2-y krug 8 M. Matteo Arnaldi Matteo Arnaldi (Italy) 2 6 7 F. Fabian Marozhan Fabian Marozhan (Hungary) 0 3 6 ; ; CHA