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ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard

1 round 04.08.2026 17:20 UTC Match prediction

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

Tennis ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard

ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard 1-y krug hard 04.08.2026 17:20 UTC Finished

04.08.2026 17:20 UTC 1-y krug Finished

Merida Aguilar D Spain Seed 61

L W W W W

Draxl L Canada Seed 211

L W W W W

2:1 3:6 6:4 6:4

1 2 3 GP

Merida Aguilar D 3 6 6 2

Draxl L 6 4 4 1

1 2 3

Odds

P1 1.73 56.5% BetBoom

P2 2.25 43.5% BetBoom

Stadium: IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers Coverage: hard

Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Spain Country Canada

- Rating -

21 Age 24

188 Height (cm) 185

80 Weight (kg) 79

- Hand -

61 Seed 211

hard Coverage hard

C 0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Merida Aguilar D

63% 12 / 19

63% 12 / 19

Sintetika

no data

clay

11 iz 16

grass

1 iz 2

hard

0 iz 1

Draxl L

25% 1 / 4

25% 1 / 4

Sintetika

no data

clay

1 iz 2

grass

no data

hard

0 iz 2

Head-to-head history

Monreal

Merida Aguilar D meet Draxl L on August 4, 2026 in the ATP - Singles: Monreal (Canada), hard.

Recent form (W-D-L): Merida Aguilar D 4-0-1, Draxl L 4-0-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 56% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Merida Aguilar D — 56%

Pure model vs market (1 · Merida Aguilar D): model 49% · market 57% Δ −8 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Merida Aguilar D55.8%

2 · Draxl L44.2%

Model estimate: win Merida Aguilar D 55.8%, win Draxl L 44.2%. Model favourite — Merida Aguilar D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Draxl L (odds2.39) Score 1:2 confidence 51% ✗ outcome missed

• Merida Agilar D
• 🇪🇸 — Draksl L
• 🇨🇦 (tennis)
• Merida Agilar D
• 🇪🇸: forma PVVVP (3-2)
• Draksl L
• 🇨🇦: forma VVVVP (4-1)
• Model backs Draksl L
• 🇨🇦: probability 51% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.39)
• edge over the line +9 pp — value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Merida Aguilar D.

Line favourite Fonbet: Merida Aguilar D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.18 / 2 4.60
Glicko: Merida Aguilar D 55.8% / Draxl L 44.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 5.8% 4 books · best price +4.5%

1 57.1%

2 42.9%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.68 → 1.68

Winner 2 2.20 → 2.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Merida Aguilar D

5-5LWWLLLWWWL

scored 1.2conceded 1.3

Draxl L

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center

Stadium IGA Stadium. Kort Rodzhers

Start 04.08.2026 17:20 UTC

Market 1 79.6% @ 1.18 / 2 20.4% @ 4.60

Stage 1-y krug

Coverage hard

Form 9 matches

H2H 3

Match center

Merida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Daniel Merida-Agilar - Liam Drasl. Monreal. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Championat match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad source needed

Referees source needed

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 2:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

Set Merida Aguilar D Draxl L Result

Set 1 3 6 3:6

Set 2 6 4 6:4

Set 3 6 4 6:4

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 55.8% fact: home hit / ROI 73.0% / Brier 0.391 / LogLoss 0.584

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 50.7% fact: home hit / ROI 73.0% / Brier 0.486 / LogLoss 0.679

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Merida Aguilar D 56.6% 55.8% market and model agree

Draxl L 43.5% 44.2%

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 55.8% / 44.2% probabilities

Rating 1,685 / 1,775 Merida Aguilar D / Draxl L

RD 145 / 123 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,395-1,975 / 1,530-2,020 strength interval

HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.60 Fonbet · no value · model 44.2%

1 1.18 Fonbet · no value · model 55.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.00 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 4.40 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.37 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.17 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 19.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only

Over 20.5 1.67 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
—	—	1.37 73.0%
1.84 54.4%	1.84 54.4%	2.05 48.8%
—	—	3.65 27.4%
—	—	4.40 22.7%
1.95 51.3%	1.96 51.0%	1.43 69.9%
—	—	8.00 12.5%
—	—	2.70 37.0%
—	—	3.20 31.3%
—	—	3.75 26.7%
—	—	3.00 33.3%
—	—	1.72 58.1%
—	—	1.25 80.0%
—	—	1.30 76.9%
—	—	1.30 76.9%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 19.5	—	—	1.87 53.5%
Over 20.5	—	—	1.67 59.9%
Over 21.5	—	—	1.60 62.5%
Over 22.5	1.89 52.9%	1.86 53.8%	2.00 50.0%
Over 23.5	—	—	1.75 57.1%
Over 24.5	—	—	2.00 50.0%
Over 25.5	—	—	1.67 59.9%
Over 26.5	—	—	1.30 76.9%
Over 27.5	—	—	1.25 80.0%
Over 28.5	—	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 29.5	—	—	2.40 41.7%
Over 31.5	—	—	3.80 26.3%
Under 19.5	—	—	1.93 51.8%
Under 20.5	—	—	2.07 48.3%
Under 22.5	1.89 52.9%	1.94 51.6%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.73 57.8%	1.64 61.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.67 59.9%
	2.10 47.6%	2.25 44.4%	4.60 21.7%	2.16 46.3%

Match center

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.72 (Pari) · 2 2.14 (Betcity)

Bookmaker	1	2
Pari	1.72	2.13
Winline	1.72	2.1
Fonbet	1.72	2.13
Betcity	1.71	2.14

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Merida Aguilar D

L W W W W

2026-07-21 2026 Estoril, Portugal

Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 1:2 Jacquet K

2026-07-18 2026 Umag, Croatia

Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:1 Dzumhur D

2026-07-17 2026 Umag, Croatia

Merida Aguilar D Burruchaga R A 0:2 Merida Aguilar D

2026-07-16 2026 Umag, Croatia

Merida Aguilar D Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Droguet T

2026-07-15 2026 Umag, Croatia

Merida Aguilar D Etcheverry T M 0:2 Merida Aguilar D

4 Wins

1 Losses

1.8 Sets won

0.6 Sets lost

80% Win percentage

Draxl L

L W W W W

2026-07-26 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Draxl L 0:2 Samuel T Draxl L

2026-07-25 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Mochizuki S 0:2 Draxl L Draxl L

2026-07-24 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Draxl L 2:0 Chidekh C Draxl L

2026-07-23 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Holmgren A 1:2 Draxl L Draxl L

2026-07-21 2026 Winnipeg, Canada

Hurrion M 0:2 Draxl L Draxl L

4 Wins

1 Losses

1.6 Sets won

0.6 Sets lost

80% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMerida Aguilar D - Draxl L

Merida Aguilar D

0 matches total

Draxl L

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event

Monreal