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AI verdict

AI pick Svajda Z win probability ~62% confidence High best odds 1.56

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Svajda Z. Full breakdown below.

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ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles
ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles
1st round 14.08.2026 00:30 UTC Match prediction

Svajda Z - Bellucci M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles
ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles 1st round hard 14.08.2026 00:30 UTC Finished
14.08.2026 00:30 UTC 1st round Finished
Svajda Z
Svajda Z USA
Rank #80 Elo 754
52Average Form
L L L W W W L W
Bellucci M
Bellucci M Italy
Rank #87 Elo 719
59Average Form
W W W L W W L L
0:2
Stadium: Lindner Femili Tennis Senter. Grandstend Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Svajda Z Bellucci M
Win % 56.8% 54.2%
Hard % 59.2% 56.1%
Clay % 31% 46%
Grass % 64.3% 58.3%
Deciding set % 53.1% 46.7%
Tie-breaks % 53.5% 53.1%
Titles (total) 7 4
Last 10 LWLLWLWWLW LLLWWWLWWL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

USA Country Italy
#80 Rating #87
23 Age 25
175 Height (cm) 175
70 Weight (kg) 77
Left Hand Right
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Svajda Z Bellucci M
Aces per match 5.56 5.39
Double faults per match 2.86 1.95
Breaks per match 2.41 0.82

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

Form over the last year

Svajda Z
43% 10 / 23
43% 10 / 23
Sintetika
no data
clay
4 iz 7
grass
2 iz 4
hard
4 iz 12
Bellucci M
38% 11 / 29
38% 11 / 29
Sintetika
no data
clay
3 iz 7
grass
3 iz 6
hard
5 iz 16

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Mattia Bellucci
Rank:80 Elo: 754
L L L W W W L W
Zachary Svajda
Rank:87 Elo: 719
W W W L W W L L
Elo favourite:Bellucci M (edge +35 Elo)

Hard

Mattia BellucciZachary Svajda
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 54.6% 12 / 22 Matches 70.4% 19 / 27 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 51.4% 19 / 37 Matches 69.7% 23 / 33 Matches

Clay

Mattia BellucciZachary Svajda
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 53.9% 7 / 13 Matches 16.7% 1 / 6 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 53.9% 7 / 13 Matches 16.7% 1 / 6 Matches

Grass

Mattia BellucciZachary Svajda
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 55.6% 5 / 9 Matches 40.0% 2 / 5 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 55.6% 5 / 9 Matches 40.0% 2 / 5 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 52.2% 24 / 46 Matches 58.7% 27 / 46 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 51.6% 32 / 62 Matches 59.6% 31 / 52 Matches
Current rank 80 87

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda
Prize money (career) $1,784,259 USD $853,111 USD
Rating 80 87
Age 25 23
Height 1.75m 1.75m
Weight 77kg 66kg
Playing hand Left-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda
Match Wins 52 % 59 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 55 % 58 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 0 % 60 %
Wins in Straight Sets 37 % 37 %
Wins From Behind 12 % 21 %
Won At Least 1 Set 63 % 74 %
Set 1 Win 52 % 52 %
Set 2 Win 48 % 62 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-head history

Tsintsinnati (m)

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.2 9.39 9.8
Over 6.5 100 % 89 % 95 %
Over 7.5 95 % 76 % 86 %
Over 8.5 86 % 66 % 76 %
Over 9.5 59 % 45 % 52 %
Over 10.5 34 % 29 % 32 %
Over 11.5 34 % 29 % 32 %

Aces

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda Match total
Aces Per Match 5.56 5.39 10.95
Most Aces in a match 49 % 37 % N/A
1+ 93 % 92 % 98 %
2+ 88 % 84 % 98 %
3+ 79 % 74 % 95 %
4+ 67 % 66 % 88 %
5+ 56 % 47 % 84 %

Breaks

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.41 0.82 3.23
Over 0.5 93 % 58 % 81 %
Over 1.5 91 % 24 % 66 %
Over 2.5 37 % 18 % 59 %
Over 3.5 2 % 13 % 33 %
Over 4.5 2 % 3 % 32 %
Over 5.5 2 % 3 % 26 %

Tie-breaks

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.36 0.37 0.37
Over 0.5 30 % 37 % 33 %
Over 1.5 7 % 0 % 3 %
Under 0.5 70 % 63 % 33 %
Under 1.5 93 % 100 % 3 %

Double faults

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.86 1.95 4.81
Over 0.5 (1+) 91 % 82 % 98 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 84 % 61 % 89 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 56 % 34 % 75 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 30 % 11 % 59 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 14 % 5 % 46 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 9 % 3 % 33 %

Net points

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.17 4.83 12
Over 4.5 (5+) 64 % 45 % 55 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 62 % 41 % 52 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 49 % 28 % 39 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 46 % 21 % 34 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 36 % 14 % 25 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 28 % 10 % 19 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.56 62.5% BetBoom
P2 2.60 37.5% BetBoom

Svajda Z take on Bellucci M on August 14, 2026 in the ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles.

PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 62% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Svajda Z — 62%

1 · Svajda Z ✓ Pick62.4%
market 63%
2 · Bellucci M37.6%
market 37%

Model estimate: win Svajda Z 62.4%, win Bellucci M 37.6%. Model favourite — Svajda Z.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Svajda Z (odds1.56) Score 2:1 confidence 59% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Svayda Z
  • • 🇺🇸 — Beluchchi M
  • • 🇮🇹 (tennis)
  • • Svayda Z
  • • 🇺🇸: forma PVPPV (2-3)
  • • Beluchchi M
  • • 🇮🇹: forma PVVPV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Svayda Z
  • • 🇺🇸: probability 59% vs 64% on the line (odds 1.56)
  • • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Svajda Z - Bellucci M August 14, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Svajda Z.

Line favourite market consensus: Svajda Z. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.56 / 2 2.60
  • Glicko: Svajda Z 62.4% / Bellucci M 37.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.4% 5 books · best price +3.3%
1 ✓ Pick 62.8%
2 37.2%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Svajda Z
62%
1.56
Bellucci M
38%
2.60
Total
Over 9.5
50%
1.88
Under 9.5
50%
1.87

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Match center
Stadium Lindner Femili Tennis Senter. Grandstend
Start 14.08.2026 00:30 UTC
Market 1 62.5% @ 1.56 / 2 37.5% @ 2.60
Stage 1-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 3
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Svajda Z 62%
💹 Market Svajda Z 63%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Svajda Z - Bellucci M

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Zakhari Svayda - Mattiya Belluchchi. Tsintsinnati (m). Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 1/2 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 20
Metric Svajda Z Bellucci M SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/0 0/0 final
Points na prieme 0% (0/1) 0% (0/0) final
Eysy 0 0 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 0/0 0/0 final
Dvoynye oshibki 0 0 final
Pervaya podacha, % 0% 100% final
Points na pervoy podache 0% (0/0) 100% (1/1) final
Points na vtoroy podache 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 62.4% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.780 / LogLoss 0.979
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 51.5% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.530 / LogLoss 0.723
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Svajda Z 62.8% 58.8% market and model agree
Bellucci M 37.2% 41.2% market and model agree
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko62.4% · +Elo prior (weight0.28).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 62.4% / 37.6% probabilities
Rating 1,782 / 1,594 Svajda Z / Bellucci M
RD 128 / 162 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,527-2,038 / 1,270-1,918 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.52 market consensus · no value · model 37.6%
1 1.52 market consensus · no value · model 62.4%
Total
Over 0.5 2.75 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 3.40 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.80 55.6% 1.81 55.3% 1.82 55.0%
1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
Over 0.5 — — 2.75 36.4%
Over 2.5 — — 2.35 42.6%
Over 5.5 — — 1.72 58.1%
Over 6.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 10.5 — — 3.40 29.4%
Over 12.5 — — 5.10 19.6%
Over 14.5 — — 1.93 51.8%
Over 19.5 — — 1.43 69.9%
Over 20.5 — — 1.58 63.3%
Over 21.5 — — 1.74 57.5%
Over 22.5 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.97 50.8%
Over 23.5 — — 2.18 45.9%
Over 24.5 — — 2.28 43.9%
Over 25.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Under 22.5 1.84 54.4% 1.81 55.3% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
1.51 66.2% 1.54 64.9% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.56 64.1%
2.55 39.2% 2.47 40.5% 2.60 38.5% 2.60 38.5% 2.39 41.8%
Match center
Svajda Z
D
13.08.2026 Championat
Svajda Z K. Kamilo Ugo Karabeli (Argentina) 0 3 — M. Miomir Ketsmanovich (Serbia) 2 6 1-y krug
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Bellucci M
D D
13.08.2026 Championat
D. Denis Shapovalov (Canada) 2 6 — A. Adrian Mannarino (France) 0 1 4 1-y krug Bellucci M
13.08.2026 Championat
R. Roman Andres Burruchaga (Argentina) 1 6 3 Ya. Yan-Lennard Bellucci M
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Svajda Z vs Bellucci M?

By the PropickAI model, Svajda Z is favoured — about 62% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Svajda Z vs Bellucci M?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Svajda Z. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Svajda Z vs Bellucci M start?

August 14, 2026.