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AI verdict

AI pick Balshaw F win probability ~86% confidence High best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Balshaw F. Full breakdown below.

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ATP. Uinston-Seylem
ATP. Uinston-Seylem International
23.08.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction

Balshaw F - Gorzny S

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP. Uinston-Seylem
ATP. Uinston-Seylem 23.08.2026 17:00 UTC Finished
23.08.2026 17:00 UTC Finished
Balshaw F
Balshaw F
Rank #782 Elo 39
58Average Form
W L L W W L L W
Gorzny S
Gorzny S
Rank #254 Elo 220
73Good Form
W W L L W W L W
2:1 4:6 6:4 6:3
1 2 3 GP
Balshaw F 4 6 6 2
Gorzny S 6 4 3 1
1 2 3
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Balshaw F Gorzny S
Win % 0% 58.9%
Hard % 0% 60.8%
Clay % 0% 40%
Grass % 0% 0%
Deciding set % 0% 57.9%
Tie-breaks % 0% 52.9%
Titles (total) 0 0
Last 10 L WLLWWLLWWL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#782 Rating #254
22 Age -
- Height (cm) 1.93m
- Weight (kg) 76kg
- Hand -
- Seed -
- Coverage -
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Balshaw F Gorzny S
Aces per match 6.50 8.07
Double faults per match 3.9 3.18
Breaks per match 11 2.39

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Sebastian Gorzny
Rank:782 Elo: 39
W L L W W L L W
Felix Balshaw
Rank:254 Elo: 220
W W L L W W L W
Elo favourite:Balshaw F (edge +181 Elo)

Hard

Sebastian GorznyFelix Balshaw
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 61.1% 11 / 18 Matches 53.3% 8 / 15 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 57.1% 12 / 21 Matches 60.0% 18 / 30 Matches
Aces Per Match 6.50 11.42
Most Aces in a match 80 % 75 %

Clay

Sebastian GorznyFelix Balshaw
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 82.4% 28 / 34 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches 83.3% 30 / 36 Matches
Aces Per Match N/A 5.56
Most Aces in a match N/A 88 %

Grass

Sebastian GorznyFelix Balshaw
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Aces Per Match N/A N/A
Most Aces in a match N/A N/A

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 57.9% 11 / 19 Matches 73.5% 36 / 49 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 54.6% 12 / 22 Matches 72.7% 48 / 66 Matches
Current rank 782 254

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw
Prize money (career) $17,236 USD $0 USD
Rating 782 254
Age 22 —
Height — 1.93m
Weight — 76kg

Win percentage (match / set)

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw
Match Wins 58 % 73 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 61 % 73 %
Wins in Straight Sets 26 % 59 %
Wins From Behind 33 % 24 %
Won At Least 1 Set 74 % 84 %
Set 1 Win 42 % 71 %
Set 2 Win 58 % 71 %
Set 3 Win 67 % 58 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Match stats (live, tennisstats)

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw
Aces 5 3
Double Faults 9 7
1st serve percentage 53% 63%
1st serve points won 72% (34/47) 64% (32/50)
2nd serve points won 46% (19/41) 45% (13/29)
Break Points Saved 5/8 3/7
1st return points won 44% (22/50) 28% (13/47)
2nd return points won 55% (16/29) 54% (22/41)
Break Points Converted 4/7 3/8
Service Points Won 60% (53/88) 57% (45/79)
Return Points Won 43% (34/79) 40% (35/88)
Total Points Won 52% (87/167) 48% (80/167)
Last 10 balls 5 5
Match points saved 0 0
Service games won 75% (9/12) 67% (8/12)
Return games won 33% (4/12) 25% (3/12)
Total games won 54% (13/24) 46% (11/24)

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.37 9.47 9.42
Over 6.5 100 % 98 % 99 %
Over 7.5 83 % 84 % 84 %
Over 8.5 67 % 65 % 66 %
Over 9.5 39 % 47 % 43 %
Over 10.5 22 % 20 % 21 %
Over 11.5 22 % 20 % 21 %

Aces

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw Match total
Aces Per Match 6.50 8.07 14.57
Most Aces in a match 80 % 82 % N/A
1+ 100 % 100 % 100 %
2+ 100 % 100 % 100 %
3+ 90 % 93 % 98 %
4+ 80 % 79 % 93 %
5+ 80 % 64 % 90 %

Breaks

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw Match total
Breaks Per Match 11 2.39 13.39
Over 0.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 100 % 71 % 100 %
Over 2.5 100 % 14 % 100 %
Over 3.5 100 % 7 % 97 %
Over 4.5 100 % 7 % 70 %
Over 5.5 100 % 4 % 54 %

Tie-breaks

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.44 0.37 0.41
Over 0.5 39 % 31 % 35 %
Over 1.5 6 % 4 % 5 %
Under 0.5 61 % 69 % 35 %
Under 1.5 94 % 96 % 5 %

Double faults

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw Match total
Double Faults Per Match 3.9 3.18 7.08
Over 0.5 (1+) 100 % 96 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 100 % 68 % 100 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 80 % 50 % 97 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 40 % 36 % 86 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 30 % 29 % 66 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 10 % 25 % 50 %

Net points

Sebastian Gorzny Felix Balshaw Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 5.5 7.75 13.25
Over 4.5 (5+) 0 % 50 % 25 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 0 % 50 % 25 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 0 % 38 % 19 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 0 % 25 % 13 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 0 % 0 % 0 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 0 % 0 % 0 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.58 89.2% BetBoom
P2 13.00 10.8% BetBoom

Balshaw F face Gorzny S on August 23, 2026 in the ATP. Uinston-Seylem, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Balshaw F 1-0-4, Gorzny S 3-0-2. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 86% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Balshaw F — 86%

1 · Balshaw F ✓ Pick86.1%
market 59%
2 · Gorzny S13.9%
market 41%

Model estimate: win Balshaw F 86.1%, win Gorzny S 13.9%. Model favourite — Balshaw F.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Balshaw F

Model confidence 93% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Balshaw F - Gorzny S August 23, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Balshaw F.

Line favourite Fonbet: Balshaw F. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 13.00
  • Glicko: Balshaw F 86.1% / Gorzny S 13.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.2% 4 books
1 ✓ Pick 59.1%
2 40.9%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.50 ↓ 1.01
Winner 2 2.50 ↑ 13.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Balshaw F
59%
1.58
Gorzny S
41%
13.00
Total
Over 9.5
50%
1.88
Under 9.5
50%
1.86

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Play-by-play

Match timeline

Balshaw FGorzny S
  • Match started
  • Set 1 Break 0-1 Gorzny S
  • Set 1 4-6 Gorzny S
  • Set 2 Break 2-0 Balshaw F
  • Set 2 Break 2-1 Gorzny S
  • Set 2 Break 2-3 Gorzny S
  • Set 2 Break 3-3 Balshaw F
  • Set 2 6-4 Balshaw F
  • Set 3 Break 2-0 Balshaw F
  • Set 3 6-3 Balshaw F
  • Match ended 2-1 Balshaw F

Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 Winston Salem, USA

1/32-finals (R64)
Damm Jr, Martin2
Shelbayh, Abdullah0
Shimabukuro, Sho0
Kecmanovic, Miomir2
Sonego, Lorenzo2
Herbert, Pierre-Hugues1
Vandecasteele, Quinn0
Duckworth, James2
Gorzny, Sebastian1
Hewitt, Cruz2
Choinski, Jan1
Rottgering, Mees2
Balshaw, Felix0
Kovacevic, Aleksandar2
Mpetshi Perricard, Giovanni0
Brooksby, Jenson2
Suresh, Dhakshineswar2
Giron, Marcos0
Safiullin, Roman1
Grenier, Hugo2
Comesana, Francisco2
Wu, Yibing0
Walton, Adam2
De Jong, Jesper0
Hijikata, Rinky2
Blanch, Darwin0
Majchrzak, Kamil0
Bonzi, Benjamin2
Carreno Busta, Pablo0
Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel0
Landaluce, Martin1
Bellucci, Mattia2
1/16-finals (R32)
Medvedev, Daniil0
Damm Jr, Martin2
Kecmanovic, Miomir0
Marozsan, Fabian2
Mannarino, Adrian0
Sonego, Lorenzo2
Duckworth, James2
Navone, Mariano0
Fery, Arthur2
Hewitt, Cruz0
Rottgering, Mees2
Machac, Tomas0
Van Assche, Luca0
Kovacevic, Aleksandar2
Brooksby, Jenson0
Tsitsipas, Stefanos2
Cerundolo, Juan Manuel2
Suresh, Dhakshineswar0
Grenier, Hugo0
Baez, Sebastian2
Altmaier, Daniel2
Comesana, Francisco0
Walton, Adam1
Buse, Ignacio2
Collignon, Raphael1
Hijikata, Rinky2
Bonzi, Benjamin2
Halys, Quentin1
Van de Zandschulp, Botic2
Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel0
Bellucci, Mattia1
Darderi, Luciano2
1/8-finals (R16)
Damm Jr, Martin0
Marozsan, Fabian0
Sonego, Lorenzo0
Duckworth, James0
Fery, Arthur0
Rottgering, Mees0
Kovacevic, Aleksandar0
Tsitsipas, Stefanos0
Cerundolo, Juan Manuel0
Baez, Sebastian0
Altmaier, Daniel0
Buse, Ignacio0
Hijikata, Rinky0
Bonzi, Benjamin2
Van de Zandschulp, Botic2
Darderi, Luciano0
Quarterfinals
Qf10
Qf20
Qf30
Qf40
Qf50
Qf60
Bonzi, Benjamin0
Van de Zandschulp, Botic0
Semifinals
WQF10
WQF20
WQF30
WQF40
Final
WSF10
WSF20

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated23.08.2026 06:12 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:Felix Balshaw to win
Per AI data Form:W / WLWLL H2H: First meeting Injuries:None Key:Second serve win percentage variation
Details

Felix Balshaw faces Sebastian Gorzny in a high-stakes qualifying match at the ATP Winston-Salem Open. Based on the Glicko model and recent match context, Felix Balshaw has a 62% probability of winning, while Sebastian Gorzny holds a 38% probability.
Current Form and Hard Court Dynamics
Felix Balshaw comes into this fixture with a 1-match form of W, having secured a straight-sets victory against Luca Pow (7-5, 6-3) in the previous qualifying round. He won 77% of his first-serve points and an impressive 79% of his second-serve points, showcasing great stability under pressure. Sebastian Gorzny enters with a mixed 5-match form of WLWLL, but he showed his resilience in the first round by defeating the fifth seed Marc Polmans in three sets (6-2, 1-6, 6-2). Gorzny leaned heavily on his serve, hitting 9 aces but struggling on his second serve, winning just 27% of those points. Balshaw's superior second-serve consistency gives him the tactical edge.
Head-to-Head (H2H) and Injuries
There are no recorded recent head-to-head professional meetings between Balshaw and Gorzny on the ATP Tour, making this a fresh matchup. Both players are reported fully fit with no key injuries or physical issues coming out of their opening qualifying matches, ensuring both can perform at full intensity.
Total Games and Set Score Predictions
Given that both players showed strong serving performances in their opening matches—Balshaw hitting 8 aces and Gorzny firing 9 aces—breaks of serve will be difficult to come by. Gorzny's tendency to play fluctuating three-set matches paired with Balshaw's baseline stability points toward a highly competitive encounter. This match is highly likely to cross the standard game line. A tight two-set match featuring a tiebreak or a full three-set battle makes Over 22.5 games the optimal choice. Balshaw is projected to edge out the victory in a deciding set.
Match Analysis Conclusion
The primary recommendation is to back Felix Balshaw to win the match. The Glicko-calibrated model indicates a clear class distinction, assigning Balshaw a 62% win expectancy against Gorzny's 38%. Our final pick aligns with the model because Balshaw's 79% second-serve efficiency provides a significantly safer baseline than Gorzny's highly volatile 27% second-serve win rate from the previous round.

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 62% 38% 2:1 Over 22.5 Felix Balshaw to win

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Match center
Start 23.08.2026 17:00 UTC
Market 1 92.8% @ 1.01 / 2 7.2% @ 13.00
Form 4 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Balshaw F 62%
📐 Math model Balshaw F 86%
💹 Market Balshaw F 59%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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$10,000Virtual balance

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Match center

Balshaw F - Gorzny S

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 20
Set Balshaw F Gorzny S Result
Set 1 4 6 4:6
Set 2 6 4 6:4
Set 3 6 3 6:3
Metric Balshaw F Gorzny S SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 3/8 4/7 final
Points na prieme 40% (35/88) 43% (34/79) final
Eysy 3 5 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 3/7 5/8 final
Dvoynye oshibki 7 9 final
Pervaya podacha, % 63% 53% final
Points na pervoy podache 64% (32/50) 72% (34/47) final
Points na vtoroy podache 45% (13/29) 46% (19/41) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form home - 86.1% fact: home hit / Brier 0.038 / LogLoss 0.149
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form home - 54.3% fact: home hit / Brier 0.417 / LogLoss 0.610
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Balshaw F 89.2% 67.5% model more cautious than market
Gorzny S 10.8% 32.5%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko86.1% · +Elo prior (weight0.54).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 86.1% / 13.9% probabilities
Rating 1,672 / 1,490 Balshaw F / Gorzny S
RD 275 / 171 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,122-2,221 / 1,148-1,831 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.26 market consensus · no value · model 13.9%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 86.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 10.5 3.55 market consensus · line only
Over 19.5 1.45 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.80 55.6%
2.10 47.6%
1.63 61.4%
1.65 60.6%
1.03 97.1%
1.08 92.6%
4.30 23.3%
3.60 27.8%
1.90 52.6%
1.65 60.6%
2.13 47.0%
2.10 47.6%
3.50 28.6%
2.10 47.6%
8.50 11.8%
6.10 16.4%
1.17 85.5%
1.25 80.0%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.30 76.9%
9.50 10.5%
1.02 98.0%
3.30 30.3%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 19.5 1.45 69.0%
Over 20.5 2.02 49.5%
Over 21.5 1.75 57.1%
Over 22.5 2.35 42.6%
Over 23.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 24.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 25.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 26.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 27.5 1.25 80.0%
Over 28.5 1.17 85.5%
Over 29.5 6.10 16.4%
Over 30.5 7.50 13.3%
Under 19.5 2.55 39.2%
Under 20.5 1.70 58.8%
Under 21.5 1.95 51.3%
Under 22.5 1.53 65.4%
Under 23.5 1.65 60.6%
Under 24.5 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.30 76.9%
Under 2.5 3.30 30.3%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0
2026-08-23 · Feliks Bolshou 2:1 Sebastyan Gorzni
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.57 (Betcity) · 2 2.5 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.5 2.5
Winline 1.56 2.33
Fonbet 1.5 2.5
Betcity 1.57 2.32
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

7 Eysy 4
10 Dvoynye oshibki 8
8 Vsego breyk-poyntov 9
4 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 3
106 Vyigrannye Points 96
67 Points na podache 55
41 Poteryannye Points na podache 39
60 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 59
38 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 27
44 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 38
23 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 17
5 Maks. ochkov podryad 6
5 Points, vyigrannye iz poslednikh 10 rozygryshey 5
12 Geymy na podache 10
16 Vyigrannye geymy 13
5 Maks. geymov podryad 3
0 Tay-breyk 0
Source: ruscore
Balshaw F
W L L L L
2026-08-22 2026 Winston Salem, USA, Qualifying
Balshaw F Balshaw F 2:0 Pow L
2026-08-18 2026 Cancun, Mexico, Qualifying
Balshaw F Balshaw F 0:2 Moro Canas A
2026-08-11 2026 Brownsburg, USA
Balshaw F Balshaw F 1:2 Milavsky D
2026-07-13 2026 Cordenons, Italy
Balshaw F Napolitano S 2:1 Balshaw F
2026-07-10 2026 Liege, Belgium
Balshaw F Broska F 2:0 Balshaw F
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.8 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
20% Win percentage
Gorzny S
W L W W L
2026-08-22 2026 Winston Salem, USA, Qualifying
Gorzny S 2:1 Polmans M Gorzny S
2026-08-07 2026 Lexington, USA
Ilagan A 2:0 Gorzny S Gorzny S
2026-08-05 2026 Lexington, USA
Gorzny S 2:1 Gojo B Gorzny S
2026-08-03 2026 Lexington, USA
Hsu Yu Hsiou 1:2 Gorzny S Gorzny S
2026-07-21 2026 Bloomfield Hills, USA
Gorzny S 0:2 Gojo B Gorzny S
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Balshaw F vs Gorzny S?

By the PropickAI model, Balshaw F is favoured — about 86% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Balshaw F vs Gorzny S?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Balshaw F. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Balshaw F vs Gorzny S start?

August 23, 2026.