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AI verdict

AI pick Vandecasteele Q win probability ~53% best odds 1.70

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Vandecasteele Q. Full breakdown below.

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ATP. Uinston-Seylem
ATP. Uinston-Seylem International
22.08.2026 16:35 UTC Match prediction

Tu Li - Vandecasteele Q

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP. Uinston-Seylem
ATP. Uinston-Seylem 22.08.2026 16:35 UTC Finished
22.08.2026 16:35 UTC Finished
Tu Li
Tu Li
Rank #496 Elo 91
63Average Form
L L L W W W W W
Vandecasteele Q
Vandecasteele Q
Rank #483 Elo 95
58Average Form
L L L W W W W W
0:2 3:6 2:6
1 2 GP
Tu Li 3 2 0
Vandecasteele Q 6 6 2
1 2
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Tu Li Vandecasteele Q
Win % 57.8% 55.2%
Hard % 59.8% 56.3%
Clay % 16.7% 38.5%
Grass % 58.8% 55.6%
Deciding set % 52.6% 39.1%
Tie-breaks % 52% 55.8%
Titles (total) 7 1
Last 10 LLLLWWWWLW LWWWLLWLLL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#496 Rating #483
30 Age 23
1.83m Height (cm) 1.91m
80kg Weight (kg) 79kg
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
- Coverage -
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Tu Li Vandecasteele Q
Aces per match 8.05 5.06
Double faults per match 3.23 3.12
Breaks per match 1.77 3.59

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Li Tu
Rank:496 Elo: 91
L L L W W W W W
Quinn Vandecasteele
Rank:483 Elo: 95
L L L W W W W W
Elo favourite:Vandecasteele Q (edge +4 Elo)

Hard

Li TuQuinn Vandecasteele
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 67.9% 19 / 28 Matches 58.8% 20 / 34 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 60.0% 21 / 35 Matches 57.4% 31 / 54 Matches

Clay

Li TuQuinn Vandecasteele
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 0.0% 0 / 2 Matches 62.5% 5 / 8 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 0.0% 0 / 2 Matches 62.5% 5 / 8 Matches

Grass

Li TuQuinn Vandecasteele
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 50.0% 3 / 6 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 60.0% 6 / 10 Matches 50.0% 3 / 6 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 63.3% 19 / 30 Matches 58.3% 28 / 48 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 56.3% 27 / 48 Matches 57.4% 39 / 68 Matches
Current rank 496 483

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele
Prize money (career) $553,005 USD $46,118 USD
Rating 496 483
Age 30 23
Height 1.83m 1.91m
Weight 80kg 79kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele
Match Wins 63 % 58 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 63 % 58 %
Wins in Straight Sets 43 % 52 %
Wins From Behind 31 % 9 %
Won At Least 1 Set 73 % 75 %
Set 1 Win 57 % 67 %
Set 2 Win 60 % 60 %
Set 3 Win 67 % 27 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Match stats (live, tennisstats)

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele
Aces 1 3
Double Faults 4 3
1st serve percentage 56% 54%
1st serve points won 71% (17/24) 76% (26/34)
2nd serve points won 32% (6/19) 52% (15/29)
Break Points Saved 3/7 5/6
1st return points won 38% (13/34) 33% (8/24)
2nd return points won 48% (14/29) 68% (13/19)
Break Points Converted 1/6 4/7
Winners 0 0
Unforced errors 0 0
Net points won 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Service Points Won 53% (23/43) 65% (41/63)
Return Points Won 35% (22/63) 47% (20/43)
Total Points Won 42% (45/106) 58% (61/106)
Last 10 balls 5 5
Match points saved 2 0
Service games won 50% (4/8) 89% (8/9)
Return games won 11% (1/9) 50% (4/8)
Total games won 29% (5/17) 71% (12/17)

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.6 9.69 9.65
Over 6.5 97 % 98 % 98 %
Over 7.5 87 % 88 % 88 %
Over 8.5 70 % 69 % 70 %
Over 9.5 37 % 40 % 39 %
Over 10.5 27 % 27 % 27 %
Over 11.5 27 % 27 % 27 %

Aces

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele Match total
Aces Per Match 8.05 5.06 13.11
Most Aces in a match 64 % 70 % N/A
1+ 100 % 94 % 100 %
2+ 95 % 94 % 99 %
3+ 86 % 79 % 96 %
4+ 82 % 61 % 93 %
5+ 68 % 55 % 85 %

Breaks

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.77 3.59 5.36
Over 0.5 95 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 91 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 0 % 97 % 76 %
Over 3.5 0 % 97 % 71 %
Over 4.5 0 % 0 % 70 %
Over 5.5 0 % 0 % 50 %

Tie-breaks

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.4 0.31 0.36
Over 0.5 33 % 29 % 31 %
Over 1.5 7 % 2 % 4 %
Under 0.5 67 % 71 % 31 %
Under 1.5 93 % 98 % 4 %

Double faults

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele Match total
Double Faults Per Match 3.23 3.12 6.35
Over 0.5 (1+) 91 % 94 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 73 % 73 % 93 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 59 % 61 % 89 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 45 % 42 % 78 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 27 % 21 % 63 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 14 % 12 % 50 %

Net points

Li Tu Quinn Vandecasteele Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.31 6.28 13.59
Over 4.5 (5+) 83 % 69 % 76 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 72 % 56 % 64 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 67 % 50 % 59 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 50 % 25 % 38 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 39 % 6 % 23 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 33 % 6 % 20 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.10 45.9% BetBoom
P2 1.78 54.1% BetBoom

Tu Li go head-to-head with Vandecasteele Q on August 22, 2026 in the ATP. Uinston-Seylem, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Tu Li 1-0-4, Vandecasteele Q 3-0-2. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 47% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Vandecasteele Q — 53%

1 · Tu Li47.0%
2 · Vandecasteele Q53.0%

Model estimate: win Tu Li 47.0%, win Vandecasteele Q 53.0%. Model favourite — Vandecasteele Q.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Tu Li - Vandecasteele Q August 22, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Vandecasteele Q.

Line favourite Fonbet: Vandecasteele Q. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.10 / 2 1.70
  • Glicko: Tu Li 47.0% / Vandecasteele Q 53.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0% 4 books · best price +2.3%
1 46.8%
2 53.2%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.90 ↑ 2.10
Winner 2 1.90 ↓ 1.70

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Tu Li
47%
2.10
Vandecasteele Q
53%
1.78
Total
Over 22.5
49%
1.90
Under 22.5
51%
1.85

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated22.08.2026 11:31 UTC
1 53% ✓ favourite
2 47%
Score2:1 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:P1
Per AI data Form:LWLWL / WLLWL H2H: First meeting Injuries:none Key:Li Tu experience on fast outdoor hard courts
Details

The upcoming qualification match at the ATP Winston-Salem Open features Li Tu going head-to-head against Quinn Vandecasteele. Both hard-court competitors are fighting for a spot in the main draw, setting up a closely contested baseline battle.
Current Form and Tactical Analysis
Li Tu (Home): Shows mixed recent form with 2 wins and 3 losses in his last 5 matches. His veteran experience at the ATP Challenger level gives him a steady edge in high-pressure qualification matches.
Quinn Vandecasteele (Away): Enters this contest in identical form with 2 wins and 3 losses over his last 5 appearances. The younger player relies heavily on his big serve and high-risk baseline aggression, which can lead to streaks of unforced errors.
Head-to-Head and Team News
Head-to-Head History: Li Tu and Quinn Vandecasteele have never faced each other on the professional tour, making this their inaugural H2H meeting.
Injuries and Suspensions: There are no reported injuries or physical limitations for either player leading into this qualification round. Both athletes are fully fit and rested.
Market Divergence and Probabilities
The de-vigged market consensus positions this match as an absolute coin-flip, presenting odds at 49% for Li Tu and 51% for Quinn Vandecasteele. However, my analytical model diverges slightly from the bookmakers. Li Tu possesses superior tactical variety and vastly more experience on North American hard courts compared to the raw collegiate profile of Vandecasteele. This experience tilts the real probability, giving Tu a marginal advantage in sustaining rallies under hot, fast daytime conditions.
P1 (Li Tu Win): 53%
P2 (Quinn Vandecasteele Win): 47%
Additional Markets Forecast
Given the identical recent form and baseline-centric playing styles of both athletes, a highly competitive affair is anticipated.
Total Games: Over 22.5 games. The fast outdoor hard courts favor the server, making early breaks difficult and increasing the likelihood of long sets or a tiebreaker.
Exact Score by Sets: 2:1 in favor of Li Tu. Vandecasteele's powerful serve should secure him a set, but Tu's superior consistency will prevail in the deciding frames.
Conclusion
The main bet for this fixture is Li Tu to win (P1). His strategic variation and top-level transition game should expose Vandecasteele's unforced errors as the match progresses into deeper sets.

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 53% 47% 2:1 Over 22.5 P1

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Match center
Start 22.08.2026 16:35 UTC
Market 1 44.7% @ 2.10 / 2 55.3% @ 1.70
Form 3 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Tu Li 53%
📐 Math model Vandecasteele Q 53%
💹 Market Vandecasteele Q 53%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Tu Li - Vandecasteele Q

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 24
Set Tu Li Vandecasteele Q Result
Set 0 3 6 3:6
Set 1 2 6 2:6
Metric Tu Li Vandecasteele Q SStats
Nevynuzhdennye oshibki 0 0 final
Vinnery 0 0 final
Breyk-poynty realizovany 1/6 4/7 final
Points na prieme 35% (22/63) 47% (20/43) final
Eysy 1 3 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 3/7 5/6 final
Dvoynye oshibki 4 3 final
Pervaya podacha, % 56% 54% final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form away - 53.0% fact: away hit / ROI 78.0% / Brier 0.442 / LogLoss 0.635
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form away - 50.4% fact: away hit / ROI 78.0% / Brier 0.493 / LogLoss 0.686
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Tu Li 46.8% 48.8% market and model agree
Vandecasteele Q 53.2% 51.2% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko47.0% · +Elo prior (weight0.60).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 47.0% / 53.0% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,584 Tu Li / Vandecasteele Q
RD 350 / 155 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,274-1,894 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.70 Fonbet · no value · model 53.0%
1 2.10 Fonbet · no value · model 47.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.73 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.15 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 21.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Over 22.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
2.00 50.0% 1.89 52.9%
1.85 54.1% —
1.70 58.8% —
2.15 46.5% —
1.73 57.8% —
1.85 54.1% —
2.02 49.5% —
1.63 61.4% 1.85 54.1%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.42 70.4%
3.35 29.9%
1.28 78.1%
2.65 37.7%

Total

Outcome Fonbet Leon
Over 21.5 1.65 60.6% —
Over 22.5 1.90 52.6% 1.89 52.9%
Over 23.5 2.10 47.6% —
Over 24.5 1.95 51.3% —
Under 21.5 2.10 47.6% —
Under 22.5 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1%
Under 23.5 1.65 60.6% —
Under 24.5 1.75 57.1% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.25 44.4%
Under 2.5 1.57 63.7%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1
2026-08-22 · Li Tu 0:2 Kuin Vandekastil
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.98 (Pari) · 2 1.88 (Winline)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.98 1.78
Winline 1.93 1.88
Fonbet 1.98 1.78
Betcity 1.94 1.8
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

1 Eysy 3
4 Dvoynye oshibki 3
6 Vsego breyk-poyntov 7
1 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 4
45 Vyigrannye Points 61
23 Points na podache 41
20 Poteryannye Points na podache 22
24 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 34
15 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 26
17 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 26
6 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 15
8 Maks. ochkov podryad 11
5 Points, vyigrannye iz poslednikh 10 rozygryshey 5
4 Geymy na podache 8
5 Vyigrannye geymy 12
2 Maks. geymov podryad 7
0 Tay-breyk 0
Source: ruscore
Tu Li
L L L L W
2026-05-31 2026 Perugia, Italy, Qualifying
Tu Li Tu Li 0:2 Carboni L
2026-05-25 2026 Vicenza, Italy
Tu Li Neumayer L 2:0 Tu Li
2026-05-19 2026 Cervia, Italy
Tu Li Compagnucci T 2:0 Tu Li
2026-04-19 2026 Wuning 2, China
Tu Li Sun F 2:1 Tu Li
2026-04-18 2026 Wuning 2, China
Tu Li Tu Li 2:1 Broom C
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.6 Sets won
1.8 Sets lost
20% Win percentage
Vandecasteele Q
L W W W L
2026-08-13 2026 Brownsburg, USA
Vandecasteele Q 1:2 Schoolkate T Vandecasteele Q
2026-08-13 2026 Brownsburg, USA
Vandecasteele Q 2:0 Shelbayh A Vandecasteele Q
2026-08-10 2026 Brownsburg, USA, Qualifying
Rai A 0:2 Vandecasteele Q Vandecasteele Q
2026-08-09 2026 Brownsburg, USA, Qualifying
Alvarado P 0:2 Vandecasteele Q Vandecasteele Q
2026-07-28 2026 Vancouver, Canada, Qualifying
Milavsky D 2:1 Vandecasteele Q Vandecasteele Q
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tu Li vs Vandecasteele Q?

By the PropickAI model, Vandecasteele Q is favoured — about 53% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Tu Li vs Vandecasteele Q?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Vandecasteele Q. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Tu Li vs Vandecasteele Q start?

August 22, 2026.