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ATP Challenger. Grodzisk Mazowiecki
ATP Challenger. Grodzisk Mazowiecki
04.08.2026 15:23 UTC Match prediction

Peliwo F - Marrero Curbelo I

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP Challenger. Grodzisk Mazowiecki
ATP Challenger. Grodzisk Mazowiecki hard 04.08.2026 15:23 UTC Finished
04.08.2026 15:23 UTC Finished
Peliwo F
Peliwo F
L L L L L
Marrero Curbelo I
Marrero Curbelo I
L W W W L
1:2 1:6 6:3 3:6
1 2 3 GP
Peliwo F 1 6 3 1
Marrero Curbelo I 6 3 6 2
1 2 3
Odds
P1 4.90 19.3% BetBoom
P2 1.17 80.7% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Peliwo F take on Marrero Curbelo I on August 4, 2026 in the ATP Challenger. Grodzisk Mazowiecki.

Recent form (W-D-L): Peliwo F 0-0-5, Marrero Curbelo I 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 22% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Marrero Curbelo I — 78%

Pure model vs market (2 · Marrero Curbelo I): model 61% · market 81% Δ −20 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Peliwo F21.9%
market19%
2 · Marrero Curbelo I ✓ Pick78.1%
market81%

Model estimate: win Peliwo F 21.9%, win Marrero Curbelo I 78.1%. Model favourite — Marrero Curbelo I.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Peliwo F - Marrero Curbelo I August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marrero Curbelo I.

Line favourite Fonbet: Marrero Curbelo I. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 7.70 / 2 1.05
  • Glicko: Peliwo F 21.9% / Marrero Curbelo I 78.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2% 4 books · best price +2.2%
1 19.3%
2 ✓ Pick 80.7%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 4.40 ↑ 4.50
Winner 2 1.15 → 1.15

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Match center
Start 04.08.2026 15:23 UTC
Market 1 12.0% @ 7.70 / 2 88.0% @ 1.05
Coverage hard
Form 6 matches
Match center

Peliwo F - Marrero Curbelo I

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Peliwo F Marrero Curbelo I Result
Set 1 1 6 1:6
Set 2 6 3 6:3
Set 3 3 6 3:6
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 78.1% fact: away hit / ROI 17.0% / Brier 0.096 / LogLoss 0.247
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 53.4% fact: away hit / ROI 17.0% / Brier 0.435 / LogLoss 0.628
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Peliwo F 20.0% 21.9%
Marrero Curbelo I 80.0% 78.1% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 21.9% / 78.1% probabilities
Rating 1,184 / 1,785 Peliwo F / Marrero Curbelo I
RD 227 / 219 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 729-1,638 / 1,348-2,222 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 78.1%
1 7.70 Fonbet · no value · model 21.9%
Total
Over 15.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Over 16.5 1.47 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 2.35 42.6%
— — 5.90 17.0%
— — 3.70 27.0%
1.73 57.8% 1.77 56.5% 1.55 64.5%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— — 1.35 74.1%
— — 1.40 71.4%
— — 1.53 65.4%
— — 1.08 92.6%
— — 1.23 81.3%
— — 2.30 43.5%
— — 2.40 41.7%
— — 2.95 33.9%
— — 2.70 37.0%
2.00 50.0% 1.93 51.8% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 15.5 — — 1.40 71.4%
Over 16.5 — — 1.47 68.0%
Over 17.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 18.5 — — 1.92 52.1%
Over 19.5 1.76 56.8% 1.77 56.5% 1.95 51.3%
Over 20.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 21.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 22.5 — — 1.92 52.1%
Over 23.5 — — 1.77 56.5%
Over 24.5 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 25.5 — — 3.70 27.0%
Over 26.5 — — 5.30 18.9%
Under 15.5 — — 2.80 35.7%
Under 16.5 — — 2.50 40.0%
Under 19.5 1.97 50.8% 1.93 51.8% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
4.50 22.2% 4.90 20.4% 7.70 13.0% 4.70 21.3%
1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.05 95.2% 1.15 87.0%
Match center
Peliwo F
L L L L L
2026-06-02 2026 Centurion 2, South Africa
Peliwo F Peliwo F 0:2 Coulibaly E
2026-05-26 2026 Centurion, South Africa
Peliwo F Peliwo F 1:2 Azkara A
2026-04-26 2026 Jiujiang, China, Qualifying
Peliwo F Pearson K 2:0 Peliwo F
2026-04-07 2026 Wuning, China
Peliwo F Peliwo F 0:2 Wendelken H
2026-02-08 2026 Tenerife 2, Spain, Qualifying
Peliwo F Fomin S 2:0 Peliwo F
0 Wins
5 Losses
0.2 Sets won
2.0 Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Marrero Curbelo I
L W W W L
2026-07-23 2026 Segovia, Spain
Moro Canas A 2:0 Marrero Curbelo I Marrero Curbelo I
2026-07-21 2026 Segovia, Spain
Marrero Curbelo I 2:0 Mena F Marrero Curbelo I
2026-07-20 2026 Segovia, Spain, Qualifying
Marrero Curbelo I 2:1 Bittoun Kouzmine C Marrero Curbelo I
2026-07-19 2026 Segovia, Spain, Qualifying
Marrero Curbelo I 2:0 Collar E Marrero Curbelo I
2026-05-09 2026 Brazzaville, Republic of Congo
Hemery C 2:1 Marrero Curbelo I Marrero Curbelo I
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage