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Challenger Men - Singles: San Marino (San-Marino), clay
Challenger Men - Singles: San Marino (San-Marino), clay
28.07.2026 07:00 UTC Match prediction

Vrbensky M - Basilashvili N

Tennis Challenger Men - Singles: San Marino (San-Marino), clay
Challenger Men - Singles: San Marino (San-Marino), clay clay 28.07.2026 07:00 UTC Finished
28.07.2026 07:00 UTC Finished
V
Vrbensky M
Basilashvili N
Basilashvili N
1:2
Odds
P1 5.70 16.5% BetBoom
P2 1.13 83.5% BetBoom
Coverage: clay
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Basilashvili N — 81%

Pure model vs market (2 · Basilashvili N): model 53% · market 93% Δ −40 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Vrbensky M19.4%
market7%
2 · Basilashvili N ✓ Pick80.6%
market93%

Model estimate: win Vrbensky M 19.4%, win Basilashvili N 80.6%. Model favourite — Basilashvili N.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Vrbensky M - Basilashvili N July 28, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Basilashvili N.

Line favourite Fonbet: Basilashvili N. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 13.00 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Vrbensky M 19.4% / Basilashvili N 80.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 6.7%
1 7.2%
2 ✓ Pick 92.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 4.80 ↑ 5.60
Winner 2 1.13 ↓ 1.09

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Vrbensky M
2-8LWLLLLLWLL
scored 0.6conceded 1.8
Basilashvili N
7-3WWWWWLLLWW
scored 1.5conceded 0.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 28.07.2026 07:00 UTC
Coverage clay
Form 5 matches
Match center

Vrbensky M - Basilashvili N

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 2/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 80.6% fact: away hit / ROI 13.0% / Brier 0.075 / LogLoss 0.215
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage away - 53.7% fact: away hit / ROI 13.0% / Brier 0.429 / LogLoss 0.622
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Vrbensky M 16.3% 19.4%
Basilashvili N 83.7% 80.6% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 19.4% / 80.6% probabilities
Rating 1,521 / 1,665 Vrbensky M / Basilashvili N
RD 240 / 152 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,041-2,001 / 1,362-1,968 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 80.6%
1 5.45 market consensus · no value · model 19.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.20 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 17.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only
Over 18.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet Leon
— 2.85 35.1% —
— 6.20 16.1% —
— 1.40 71.4% —
— 1.80 55.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.85 54.1%
— 1.35 74.1% —
— 2.20 45.5% —
— 1.37 73.0% —
— 1.07 93.5% —
— 2.65 37.7% —
— 1.90 52.6% —
— 3.95 25.3% —
— 3.00 33.3% —
— 1.60 62.5% —
1.89 52.9% — 1.89 52.9%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet
Over 17.5 — 1.43 69.9%
Over 18.5 — 1.43 69.9%
Over 19.5 1.81 55.3% 1.60 62.5%
Over 20.5 1.97 50.8% 2.15 46.5%
Over 21.5 — 1.62 61.7%
Over 22.5 — 2.05 48.8%
Over 23.5 — 1.95 51.3%
Over 24.5 — 2.10 47.6%
Over 26.5 — 1.40 71.4%
Over 27.5 — 6.20 16.1%
Over 28.5 — 3.15 31.8%
Under 17.5 — 2.60 38.5%
Under 18.5 — 2.65 37.7%
Under 19.5 1.91 52.4% 2.20 45.5%
Under 20.5 1.76 56.8% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet Leon
5.70 17.5% 13.00 7.7% 5.20 19.2%
1.11 90.1% 1.01 99.0% 1.13 88.5%
Match center
Vrbensky M
W L
27.07 06:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: San Marino (San-Marino) - Qualifying, clay
Vrbensky M 2:1 Zhanve M. 🇫🇷
31.05 10:40 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Khaylbronn (Germany) - Qualifying, clay
Vrbensky M 1:2 Meller M. 🇩🇪
1 Wins
1 Losses
1.5 Sets won
1.5 Sets lost
50% Win percentage
Basilashvili N
L L W L W
20.07 09:00 UTC+0 ATP - Singles: Eshtoril (Portugal), clay
Basilashvili N 0:2 Torres T. 🇵🇹
16.07 07:00 UTC+0 ATP - Singles: Bastad (Sweden), clay
Basilashvili N 1:2 Tirante T. A. 🇦🇷Tirante T. A. 🇦🇷
14.07 09:30 UTC+0 ATP - Singles: Bastad (Sweden), clay
Basilashvili N 2:0 Yan Choinski 🇬🇧Yan Choinski 🇬🇧
06.07 06:00 UTC+0 Challenger Men - Singles: Braunshveyg (Germany), clay
Basilashvili N 1:2 Gaubas V. 🇱🇹Gaubas V. 🇱🇹
14.06 08:35 UTC+0 ATP - Singles: Khalle (Germany) - Qualifying, grass
Basilashvili N 2:0 Sonego L. 🇮🇹Sonego L. 🇮🇹
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
40% Win percentage