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Challenger Women - Singles: Targu Mures (Romania), clay

28.07.2026 06:00 UTC Match prediction

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 - Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

Tennis Challenger Women - Singles: Targu Mures (Romania), clay

Challenger Women - Singles: Targu Mures (Romania), clay clay 28.07.2026 06:00 UTC Finished

28.07.2026 06:00 UTC Finished

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦

Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

2:1

Odds

P1 1.75 54.0% BetBoom

P2 2.05 46.1% BetBoom

Coverage: clay

Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -

- Rating -

- Age -

- Height (cm) -

- Weight (kg) -

- Hand -

- Seed -

clay Coverage clay

0 H2H 0

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦): model 56% · market 93% Δ −37 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦54.4%

2 · Spiteri D. 🇮🇹45.6%

Model estimate: win Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 54.4%, win Spiteri D. 🇮🇹 45.6%. Model favourite — Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 (odds1.67) Score 2:1 confidence 56% ✓ outcome correct · exact score

• Kotliar Y
• 🇺🇦 — Spiteri D
• 🇮🇹 (tennis)
• Kotliar Y
• 🇺🇦: forma VVPVV (4-1)
• Spiteri D
• 🇮🇹: forma PVP (1-2)
• Model backs Kotliar Y
• 🇺🇦: probability 56% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.67)
• no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 - Spiteri D. 🇮🇹 July 28, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦.

Line favourite Fonbet: Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 13.00
Glicko: Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 54.4% / Spiteri D. 🇮🇹 45.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 6.7%

1 92.8%

2 7.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.75 → 1.75

Winner 2 2.00 → 2.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦

3-7LLLWLLWLLW

scored 1.0conceded 1.6

Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center

Start 28.07.2026 06:00 UTC

Coverage clay

Form 6 matches

Match center

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 - Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/3 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview

More needed

H2H Championat, Flashscore

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 2:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 54.4% fact: home hit / ROI 75.0% / Brier 0.416 / LogLoss 0.609

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 50.5% fact: home hit / ROI 75.0% / Brier 0.490 / LogLoss 0.683

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 54.1% 54.4% market and model agree

Spiteri D. 🇮🇹 45.9% 45.6%

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 54.4% / 45.6% probabilities

Rating 1,645 / 1,531 Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 / Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

RD 166 / 202 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,314-1,977 / 1,126-1,936 strength interval

HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.03 market consensus · no value · model 45.6%

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 54.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.78 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.92 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 20.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Over 21 1.87 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
1.81 55.3%	—	1.92 52.1%
1.89 52.9%	1.87 53.5%	—
1.91 52.4%	—	1.85 54.1%
1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.90 52.6%
—	—	1.80 55.6%
—	—	1.78 56.2%
—	—	2.20 45.5%
—	—	1.78 56.2%
—	—	2.20 45.5%
—	—	3.90 25.6%
—	—	4.70 21.3%
—	—	1.72 58.1%
—	—	1.42 70.4%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 20.5	—	—	1.70 58.8%
Over 21.5	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	1.80 55.6%
Over 22.5	—	—	1.85 54.1%
Over 23.5	—	—	1.80 55.6%
Over 24.5	—	—	1.75 57.1%
Over 25.5	—	—	1.95 51.3%
Over 26.5	—	—	1.88 53.2%
Over 27.5	—	—	1.72 58.1%
Over 28.5	—	—	1.42 70.4%
Over 29.5	—	—	1.72 58.1%
Over 30.5	—	—	4.70 21.3%
Over 31.5	—	—	3.70 27.0%
Under 20.5	—	—	2.02 49.5%
Under 21.5	1.81 55.3%	1.80 55.6%	1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.74 57.5%	1.69 59.2%	1.01 99.0%	1.67 59.9%
	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	13.00 7.7%	2.04 49.0%

Match center

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦

W W L W W

27.07 06:00 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Targu Mures (Romania) - Qualifying, clay

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 2:0 Prishakariu A. 🇷🇴

26.07 06:00 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Targu Mures (Romania) - Qualifying, clay

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 2:1 Mazzola A. 🇮🇹

14.07 16:45 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Rome (Italy), clay

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 0:2 Urgesi F. 🇮🇹

12.07 12:00 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Rome (Italy) - Qualifying, clay

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 2:1 Ess A. 🇫🇷

06.07 07:00 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Contrexeville (France) - Qualifying, clay

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 2:0 Boulard L. 🇫🇷

4 Wins

1 Losses

1.6 Sets won

0.8 Sets lost

80% Win percentage

Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

L W L

23.07 17:45 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Palermo (Italy), clay

Spiteri D. 🇮🇹 0:2 Brontsetti L. 🇮🇹

20.07 17:30 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Palermo (Italy), clay

Spiteri D. 🇮🇹 2:0 Mazzola A. 🇮🇹

13.07 06:30 UTC+0 Challenger Women - Singles: Rome (Italy), clay

Spiteri D. 🇮🇹 1:2 Dzhons F. 🇬🇧

1 Wins

2 Losses

1.0 Sets won

1.3 Sets lost

33% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyKotliar Y. 🇺🇦 - Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦

0 matches total

Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 - Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

About the athletes

AI match prediction Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 - Spiteri D. 🇮🇹 July 28, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Kotliar Y. 🇺🇦 - Spiteri D. 🇮🇹

Match markets

Handicap

Total

Outcome (1X2)

Match history