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AI verdict

AI pick Delaney Jake win probability ~54% best odds 3.75

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Delaney Jake. Full breakdown below.

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Chzhantszyagan
Chzhantszyagan International
01.09.2026 04:30 UTC Match prediction

Matsuda K vs Delaney Jake — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis Chzhantszyagan
Chzhantszyagan 01.09.2026 04:30 UTC Finished
01.09.2026 04:30 UTC Finished
Matsuda K
Matsuda K
Rank #365 Elo 143
69Average Form
L L W W W W W W
Delaney Jake
Delaney Jake
Rank #483 Elo 94
67Average Form
W W W W W W W W
2:0 7:6 7:6
1 2 GP
Matsuda K 7 7 2
Delaney Jake 6 6 0
1 2
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Delaney Jake — 54%

1 · Matsuda K45.7%
2 · Delaney Jake54.3%

Model estimate: win Matsuda K 45.7%, win Delaney Jake 54.3%. Model favourite — Delaney Jake.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick strong

Match winner — Matsuda K

Model confidence 75% ~87% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Matsuda K - Delaney Jake September 1, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Matsuda K.

Line favourite Fonbet: Matsuda K. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.23 / 2 3.75
  • Glicko: Matsuda K 45.7% / Delaney Jake 54.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.2% 4 books · best price +118.0%
1 45.4%
2 54.6%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.88 ↑ 4.00
Winner 2 1.88 ↓ 1.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Matsuda K
46%
2.07
Delaney Jake
54%
3.75
Total
Over 23.5
48%
2.01
Under 23.5
52%
1.85

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Matsuda K Delaney Jake
Win % 60.3% 25%
Hard % 61.3% 25%
Clay % 50% 0%
Grass % 0% 0%
Deciding set % 42.3% 0%
Tie-breaks % 59.5% 0%
Titles (total) 6 0
Last 10 WWLLLWWWWL LLWL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#365 Rating #483
29 Age 25
1.85m Height (cm) 1.83m
81kg Weight (kg) 73kg
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
- Coverage -
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Matsuda K Delaney Jake
Aces per match 5.63 5.19
Double faults per match 2.37 1.62
Breaks per match 2.95 15

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Jake Delaney
Rank:365 Elo: 143
L L W W W W W W
Koki Matsuda
Rank:483 Elo: 94
W W W W W W W W
Elo favourite:Delaney Jake (edge +49 Elo)

Hard

Jake DelaneyKoki Matsuda
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 66.7% 34 / 51 Matches 66.7% 22 / 33 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 64.9% 48 / 74 Matches 64.0% 32 / 50 Matches

Clay

Jake DelaneyKoki Matsuda
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 66.7% 4 / 6 Matches 66.7% 2 / 3 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 66.7% 4 / 6 Matches 66.7% 2 / 3 Matches

Grass

Jake DelaneyKoki Matsuda
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Jake Delaney Koki Matsuda
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 69.2% 45 / 65 Matches 66.7% 30 / 45 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 67.4% 60 / 89 Matches 64.5% 40 / 62 Matches
Current rank 365 483

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Jake Delaney Koki Matsuda
Prize money (career) $73,909 USD $17,456 USD
Rating 365 483
Age 29 25
Height 1.85m 1.83m
Weight 81kg 73kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Jake Delaney Koki Matsuda
Match Wins 69 % 67 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 67 % 67 %
Wins in Straight Sets 51 % 47 %
Wins From Behind 20 % 32 %
Won At Least 1 Set 80 % 80 %
Set 1 Win 65 % 62 %
Set 2 Win 66 % 64 %
Set 3 Win 63 % 60 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Jake Delaney Koki Matsuda Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.66 9.67 9.67
Over 6.5 95 % 97 % 96 %
Over 7.5 86 % 89 % 88 %
Over 8.5 70 % 75 % 73 %
Over 9.5 51 % 47 % 49 %
Over 10.5 23 % 19 % 21 %
Over 11.5 23 % 19 % 21 %

Aces

Jake Delaney Koki Matsuda Match total
Aces Per Match 5.63 5.19 10.82
Most Aces in a match 47 % 56 % N/A
1+ 100 % 100 % 100 %
2+ 100 % 88 % 100 %
3+ 84 % 75 % 94 %
4+ 68 % 69 % 92 %
5+ 68 % 50 % 85 %

Breaks

Jake Delaney Koki Matsuda Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.95 15 17.95
Over 0.5 95 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 63 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 63 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 11 % 100 % 95 %
Over 4.5 11 % 100 % 95 %
Over 5.5 0 % 100 % 77 %

Tie-breaks

Jake Delaney Koki Matsuda Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.33 0.33 0.33
Over 0.5 28 % 31 % 29 %
Over 1.5 5 % 3 % 4 %
Under 0.5 72 % 69 % 29 %
Under 1.5 95 % 97 % 4 %

Double faults

Jake Delaney Koki Matsuda Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.37 1.62 3.99
Over 0.5 (1+) 74 % 75 % 95 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 53 % 56 % 95 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 37 % 25 % 75 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 32 % 6 % 64 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 21 % 0 % 55 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 16 % 0 % 37 %

Net points

Jake Delaney Koki Matsuda Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.41 5.33 12.74
Over 4.5 (5+) 69 % 33 % 51 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 63 % 17 % 40 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 50 % 0 % 25 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 31 % 0 % 16 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 25 % 0 % 13 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 25 % 0 % 13 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 4.00 30.1% BetBoom
P2 1.72 69.9% BetBoom

Matsuda K take on Delaney Jake in tennis, in Chzhantszyagan, on 1 September 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Delaney Jake: roughly 54% to win. The bookmaker consensus (4 books) implies about 55% for the same outcome.

Latest form: Matsuda K 3 won and 2 lost; Delaney Jake 3 won and 2 lost. Glicko ratings: Matsuda K 1782, Delaney Jake 1651, a gap of 131 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 1-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 131 Glicko rating points, the model's 54% for Delaney Jake. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Match center
Start 01.09.2026 04:30 UTC
Market 1 75.3% @ 1.23 / 2 24.7% @ 3.75
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Delaney Jake 54%
💹 Market Delaney Jake 55%
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Match center

Matsuda K - Delaney Jake

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Matsuda K Delaney Jake Result
Set 1 7 6 7:6
Set 2 7 6 7:6
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form away - 54.3% fact: home missed / Brier 0.589 / LogLoss 0.782
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form away - 50.5% fact: home missed / Brier 0.510 / LogLoss 0.703
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Matsuda K 45.4% 46.7% market and model agree
Delaney Jake 54.6% 53.3% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko45.7% · +Elo prior (weight0.26).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 45.7% / 54.3% probabilities
Rating 1,782 / 1,651 Matsuda K / Delaney Jake
RD 102 / 177 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,579-1,986 / 1,298-2,005 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.75 Fonbet · weak value +103.5% · model 54.3%
1 1.23 Fonbet · no value · model 45.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.75 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.77 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.23 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.93 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 10.5 2.70 market consensus · line only
Over 2.5 1.92 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.93 51.8%
1.80 55.6%
1.70 58.8%
1.67 59.9%
1.67 59.9%
1.55 64.5%
1.23 81.3%
1.35 74.1%
3.00 33.3%
1.77 56.5%
1.90 52.6%
2.02 49.5%
2.07 48.3%
2.07 48.3%
2.30 43.5%
3.75 26.7%
2.90 34.5%
1.33 75.2%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.04 96.2%
1.78 56.2%
1.92 52.1%
7.90 12.7%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 20.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 21.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 22.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 23.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 24.5 1.60 62.5%
Over 25.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 26.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 27.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 28.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 29.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 30.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 31.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 32.5 3.15 31.8%
Over 33.5 2.02 49.5%
Under 20.5 2.10 47.6%
Under 21.5 2.10 47.6%
Under 22.5 1.75 57.1%
Under 23.5 1.85 54.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.92 52.1%
Under 2.5 1.78 56.2%
Match center
Matsuda K
W W L L W
2026-08-31 2026 Zhangjiagang, China, Qualifying
Matsuda K Matsuda K 2:1 Meng Fanming
2026-08-30 2026 Zhangjiagang, China, Qualifying
Matsuda K Matsuda K 2:1 Uesugi K
2026-08-10 2026 Astana, Kazakhstan
Matsuda K Matsuda K 0:2 Matsuoka H
2026-08-07 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Matsuda K Matsuda K 1:2 Brouwer G
2026-08-06 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye
Matsuda K Inchauspe P 1:2 Matsuda K
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Delaney Jake
L L W L L
2026-05-03 2026 Wuxi, China, Qualifying
Delaney Jake 0:2 Ayeni A Delaney Jake
2026-04-27 2026 Jiujiang, China, Qualifying
Wu Tung-Lin 2:0 Delaney Jake Delaney Jake
2026-04-26 2026 Jiujiang, China, Qualifying
Fellin P O 1:2 Delaney Jake Delaney Jake
2026-04-19 2026 Gwangju, Korea Republic, Qualifying
Delaney Jake 0:2 Shimizu Y Delaney Jake
2026-04-14 2026 Busan, Korea Republic
Trotter J 2:1 Delaney Jake Delaney Jake
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.6 Sets won
1.8 Sets lost
20% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matsuda K vs Delaney Jake?

By the PropickAI model, Matsuda K is favoured — about 54% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Matsuda K vs Delaney Jake?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Matsuda K. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Matsuda K vs Delaney Jake?

Live odds for Matsuda K vs Delaney Jake from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Matsuda K vs Delaney Jake start?

September 1, 2026.