Who is the favourite in Ceban M vs Ribecai M?

By the PropickAI model, Ribecai M is favoured — about 60% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Ceban M vs Ribecai M?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Ribecai M. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

AI verdict

AI pick Ribecai M win probability ~60% confidence High best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Ribecai M. Full breakdown below.

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Rokhempton 2 International

24.08.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction

Ceban M - Ribecai M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

Tennis Rokhempton 2

Rokhempton 2 24.08.2026 14:30 UTC Finished

24.08.2026 14:30 UTC Finished

Ceban M

Rank #260 Elo 218

53Average Form

L W W L L L L L

Ribecai M

Rank #2097 Elo 1

41Struggling Form

L L L L W L L L

0:2 1:6 2:6

1 2 GP

Ceban M 1 2 0

Ribecai M 6 6 2

1 2

Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

	Ceban M	Ribecai M
Win %	31.6%	60.3%
Hard %	37.5%	61.3%
Clay %	0%	60.4%
Grass %	0%	0%
Deciding set %	0%	37.1%
Tie-breaks %	75%	51.2%
Titles (total)	0	1
Last 10	LWWLWWWLWL	LWWLLLLWLL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -

#260 Rating #2097

23 Age -

- Height (cm) -

- Weight (kg) -

- Hand -

- Seed -

- Coverage -

0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

	Ceban M	Ribecai M
Aces per match	1.32	2.40
Double faults per match	2.24	3.2
Breaks per match	3.08	9.5

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Michele Ribecai

Rank:260 Elo: 218

L W W L L L L L

Mark Ceban

Rank:2097 Elo: 1

L L L L W L L L

Elo favourite:Ribecai M (edge +217 Elo)

Hard

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year	55.6% 10 / 18 Matches	54.6% 6 / 11 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months	60.6% 20 / 33 Matches	54.6% 6 / 11 Matches
Aces Per Match	1.85	3.00
Most Aces in a match	8 %	67 %

Clay

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year	46.2% 12 / 26 Matches	0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months	57.1% 28 / 49 Matches	0.0% 0 / 1 Matches
Aces Per Match	1.04	N/A
Most Aces in a match	16 %	N/A

Grass

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year	N/A 0 / 0 Matches	25.0% 1 / 4 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months	N/A 0 / 0 Matches	25.0% 1 / 4 Matches
Aces Per Match	N/A	1.50
Most Aces in a match	N/A	0 %

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban
H2H wins	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Sets	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Wins this year	53.2% 25 / 47 Matches	41.2% 7 / 17 Matches
Wins in 12 mo.	60.0% 51 / 85 Matches	41.2% 7 / 17 Matches
Current rank	260	2097

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban
Prize money (career)	$11,920 USD	$0 USD
Rating	260	2097
Age	23	—

Win percentage (match / set)

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban
Match Wins	53 %	41 %
Match Wins (3 Sets)	50 %	44 %
Wins in Straight Sets	47 %	35 %
Wins From Behind	4 %	0 %
Won At Least 1 Set	85 %	71 %
Set 1 Win	77 %	53 %
Set 2 Win	55 %	53 %
Set 3 Win	17 %	17 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban	Match total
Average Games in a Set	9.3	9.29	9.3
Over 6.5	98 %	100 %	99 %
Over 7.5	86 %	69 %	78 %
Over 8.5	68 %	63 %	66 %
Over 9.5	55 %	50 %	53 %
Over 10.5	18 %	25 %	22 %
Over 11.5	18 %	25 %	22 %

Aces

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban	Match total
Aces Per Match	1.32	2.40	3.72
Most Aces in a match	13 %	40 %	N/A
1+	74 %	100 %	98 %
2+	39 %	80 %	92 %
3+	13 %	20 %	90 %
4+	5 %	20 %	72 %
5+	0 %	20 %	65 %

Breaks

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban	Match total
Breaks Per Match	3.08	9.5	12.58
Over 0.5	71 %	100 %	100 %
Over 1.5	68 %	100 %	100 %
Over 2.5	66 %	100 %	99 %
Over 3.5	63 %	100 %	84 %
Over 4.5	8 %	100 %	84 %
Over 5.5	0 %	100 %	82 %

Tie-breaks

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban	Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match	0.2	0.19	0.2
Over 0.5	20 %	19 %	20 %
Over 1.5	0 %	0 %	0 %
Under 0.5	80 %	81 %	20 %
Under 1.5	100 %	100 %	0 %

Double faults

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban	Match total
Double Faults Per Match	2.24	3.2	5.44
Over 0.5 (1+)	76 %	100 %	98 %
Over 1.5 (2+)	50 %	100 %	92 %
Over 2.5 (3+)	34 %	80 %	78 %
Over 3.5 (4+)	24 %	40 %	51 %
Over 4.5 (5+)	18 %	0 %	34 %
Over 5.5 (6+)	11 %	0 %	30 %

Net points

	Michele Ribecai	Mark Ceban	Match total
Net Points Won Per Match	5.03	N/A	N/A
Over 4.5 (5+)	53 %	N/A	N/A
Over 5.5 (6+)	37 %	N/A	N/A
Over 6.5 (7+)	37 %	N/A	N/A
Over 7.5 (8+)	32 %	N/A	N/A
Over 8.5 (9+)	21 %	N/A	N/A
Over 9.5 (10+)	11 %	N/A	N/A

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds

P1 2.48 39.4% BetBoom

P2 1.61 60.6% BetBoom

Ceban M take on Ribecai M on August 24, 2026 in the Rokhempton 2, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Ceban M 3-0-2, Ribecai M 2-0-3. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 40% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Ribecai M — 60%

1 · Ceban M40.0%

market 38%

2 · Ribecai M ✓ Pick60.0%

market 62%

Model estimate: win Ceban M 40.0%, win Ribecai M 60.0%. Model favourite — Ribecai M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Ribecai M

Model confidence 94% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ceban M - Ribecai M August 24, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Ribecai M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Ribecai M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 15.00 / 2 1.01
Glicko: Ceban M 40.0% / Ribecai M 60.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 7.0% 5 books · best price +6.7%

1 37.7%

2 ✓ Pick 62.3%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 2.55 ↓ 2.45

Winner 2 1.45 ↑ 1.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Ceban M

39%

15.00

Ribecai M

61%

1.60

Total

Over 21.5

52%

1.81

Under 21.5

48%

1.96

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated23.08.2026 15:16 UTC

1 44%

2 56% ✓ favourite

Score1:2 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:Total Games Over 22.5

Per AI data Form:LLWWW / LWL H2H: No previous meetings Injuries:none Key:Significant pre-match line movement favoring Ceban suggests a highly competitive three-set match

Details

Mark Ceban will face Michele Ribecai in an intriguing clash at the Roehampton 2 Challenger on August 24, 2026, at 12:00 MSK. Our calibrated Glicko predictive model installed Ribecai as the pre-match favorite with a 60% probability compared to 40% for Ceban. This aligns with early market indicators where Ribecai open as a strong favorite, but significant line movement has seen backing for Ceban, dropping his opening odds from 2.55 down to 2.45, while Ribecai shifted slightly from 1.45 up to 1.50.
Form and Head-to-Head Analysis
Mark Ceban (Home): Exhibits a recent trajectory of LLWWW. Despite dropping his last two matches, his consecutive three-win streak prior demonstrates his capabilities on these fast British hardcourts.
Michele Ribecai (Away): Enters this matchup with a highly volatile LWL format profile over his latest competitive appearances.
Head-to-Head (H2H): There are no recorded previous head-to-head professional meetings between these two players. This makes tactical adaptability from the opening game a primary factor.
Injury and Motivation Reports
No physical injuries, fitness limitations, or suspensions have been reported for either competitor heading into this fixture. Both athletes enter completely healthy. Motivation remains exceptionally high, as this hardcourt tournament represents a crucial opportunity for lower-ranked Challenger professionals to collect essential ATP ranking points.
Divergence and Market Assessment
While our foundational model favors Ribecai at 60%, the live market correction is completely justified. Ceban has displayed significantly higher match density and a stronger volume of wins on hardcourts recently, contrasted with Ribecai's sporadic match fitness and tendency to stretch games into long battles. Given Ceban's home-court familiarity and the sharp reverse line movement favoring him, the gap between the two is narrower than initially expected.
Ribecai retains a slight edge due to higher peak experience at the Challenger level, but Ceban's momentum points toward a highly competitive, elongated three-set affair. Therefore, the value shifts strongly toward a high games threshold.
Recommended Betting Breakdown
Outcome Probabilities: P1 (Ceban) 44% / P2 (Ribecai) 56%
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games
Exact Score by Sets: 1:2 in favor of Ribecai
Conclusion
The definitive selection for this matchup is the Over 22.5 Games market. Ribecai's baseline resilience and higher peak experience should secure him a narrow victory, but Ceban's excellent local form and strong serving will push this match to a deciding third set, comfortably clearing the games line.

AI	1	2	Score	Total games	Bet
Google AI	44%	56%	1:2	Over 22.5	Total Games Over 22.5

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Match center

Start 24.08.2026 14:30 UTC

Market 1 6.3% @ 15.00 / 2 93.7% @ 1.01

Form 6 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models Ribecai M 56%

📐 Math model Ribecai M 60%

💹 Market Ribecai M 62%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Ceban M - Ribecai M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 0:2

Events 0

Statistics 20

Set Ceban M Ribecai M Result

Set 1 1 6 1:6

Set 2 2 6 2:6

Metric Ceban M Ribecai M SStats

Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/0 0/0 final

Points na prieme 0% (0/0) 0% (0/1) final

Eysy 0 0 final

Breyk-poynty otygrany 0/0 0/0 final

Dvoynye oshibki 0 0 final

Pervaya podacha, % 100% 0% final

Points na pervoy podache 100% (1/1) 0% (0/0) final

Points na vtoroy podache 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0) final

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Ceban M 38.0% 43.3% market and model agree

Ribecai M 62.0% 56.7% market and model agree

1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko40.0% · +Elo prior (weight0.42).

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 40.0% / 60.0% probabilities

Rating 1,761 / 1,597 Ceban M / Ribecai M

RD 150 / 223 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,460-2,061 / 1,152-2,043 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 60.0%

1 2.36 market consensus · no value · model 40.0%

Total

Over 10.5 3.65 market consensus · line only

Over 14.5 1.38 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Baltbet	Fonbet
	—	2.20 45.5%
	1.86 53.8%	2.00 50.0%
	1.78 56.2%	1.75 57.1%
	—	1.55 64.5%
	—	6.30 15.9%
	—	4.20 23.8%
	—	1.38 72.5%
	—	1.60 62.5%
	—	1.72 58.1%
	—	1.95 51.3%
	—	2.30 43.5%
	—	1.07 93.5%
	—	1.17 85.5%
	—	2.80 35.7%
	1.86 53.8%	—
	1.95 51.3%	—

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	11.00 9.1%
	4.05 24.7%
	1.20 83.3%
	1.01 99.0%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Fonbet
Over 14.5	—	1.38 72.5%
Over 15.5	—	4.20 23.8%
Over 16.5	—	6.20 16.1%
Over 17.5	—	2.80 35.7%
Over 20.5	—	1.65 60.6%
Over 21.5	1.79 55.9%	1.80 55.6%
Over 22.5	1.97 50.8%	2.05 48.8%
Under 14.5	—	2.80 35.7%
Under 15.5	—	1.17 85.5%
Under 16.5	—	1.07 93.5%
Under 17.5	—	1.38 72.5%
Under 20.5	—	2.10 47.6%
Under 21.5	1.94 51.6%	1.90 52.6%
Under 22.5	1.76 56.8%	1.68 59.5%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 2.5	11.00 9.1%
Under 2.5	1.01 99.0%

Match center

Ceban M

L W W L W

2026-08-20 2026 Roehampton, Great Britain

Ceban M Matusevich A 2:0 Ceban M

2026-08-19 2026 Roehampton, Great Britain

Ceban M Ceban M 2:0 Radulov I

2026-08-17 2026 Roehampton, Great Britain

Ceban M Shepp A 0:2 Ceban M

2026-07-07 2026 Wimbledon, Boys

Ceban M Ceban M 1:2 Mackenzie J

2026-07-05 2026 Wimbledon, Boys

Ceban M Ceban M 2:1 Goode G

3 Wins

2 Losses

1.4 Sets won

1.0 Sets lost

60% Win percentage

Ribecai M

L W W L L

2026-08-07 2026 Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Poland

Ribecai M 1:2 Guerrieri A Ribecai M

2026-08-05 2026 Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Poland

Ribecai M 2:0 Berkieta T Ribecai M

2026-08-03 2026 Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Poland

Ribecai M 2:0 Radulov I Ribecai M

2026-07-28 2026 Liberec, Czech Republic

Ribecai M 1:2 Torres J B Ribecai M

2026-07-18 2026 Kitzbuhel, Austria, Qualifying

Dellien H 2:1 Ribecai M Ribecai M

2 Wins

3 Losses

1.4 Sets won

1.2 Sets lost

40% Win percentage

Ceban M - Ribecai M

Extended stats (scorego)

About the athletes

Serve and return stats

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Hard

Clay

Grass

H2H series (tennisstats)

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Win percentage (match / set)

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Total games

Aces

Breaks

Tie-breaks

Double faults

Net points

AI match prediction Ceban M - Ribecai M August 24, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

AI outcome leader: 1

Forecast by market

AI predictions

Unlock the full AI analysis

Ceban M - Ribecai M

Match markets

Handicap

Handicap

Total

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