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AI verdict

AI pick Arnaldi M win probability ~60% confidence High best odds 2.40

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Arnaldi M. Full breakdown below.

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US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
31.08.2026 17:10 UTC Match prediction

Arnaldi M vs Duckworth J — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge grass 31.08.2026 17:10 UTC Finished
31.08.2026 17:10 UTC Finished
Arnaldi M
Arnaldi M
Rank #71 Elo 853
49Struggling Form
L W W W W L W L
Duckworth J
Duckworth J
Rank #36 Elo 1349
55Average Form
W W L W L W L L
1:2 7:5 3:6 2:6
1 2 3 GP
Arnaldi M 7 3 2 1
Duckworth J 5 6 6 2
1 2 3
Coverage: grass
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Arnaldi M — 60%

1 · Arnaldi M ✓ Pick60.2%
market 60%
2 · Duckworth J39.8%
market 40%

Model estimate: win Arnaldi M 60.2%, win Duckworth J 39.8%. Model favourite — Arnaldi M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arnaldi M - Duckworth J August 31, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Duckworth J.

Line favourite Fonbet: Duckworth J. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.40 / 2 1.53
  • Glicko: Arnaldi M 60.2% / Duckworth J 39.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.4% 5 books · best price +52.9%
1 ✓ Pick 60.1%
2 40.0%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 2.10 ↓ 1.55
Winner 2 1.73 ↑ 2.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Arnaldi M
60%
2.40
Duckworth J
40%
2.43
Handicap
Arnaldi M (-1.5)
53%
1.93
Duckworth J (-1.5)
47%
1.90
Total
Over 39.5
51%
1.88
Under 39.5
49%
1.95

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Arnaldi M Duckworth J
Win % 56.3% 52%
Hard % 49.3% 53.4%
Clay % 64.5% 50%
Grass % 42.9% 45.9%
Deciding set % 53.8% 50%
Tie-breaks % 60.3% 50.2%
Titles (total) 5 5
Last 10 LLWLLWLLWW LWWWWLWLWL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#71 Rating #36
34 Age 25
1.83m Height (cm) 1.85m
82kg Weight (kg) 71kg
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Arnaldi M Duckworth J
Aces per match 6.94 4.58
Double faults per match 3.85 4.35
Breaks per match 2.95 15

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

James Duckworth
Rank:71 Elo: 853
L W W W W L W L
Matteo Arnaldi
Rank:36 Elo: 1349
W W L W L W L L
Elo favourite:Arnaldi M (edge +496 Elo)

Hard

James DuckworthMatteo Arnaldi
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 47.6% 10 / 21 Matches 28.6% 2 / 7 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 58.3% 28 / 48 Matches 35.0% 7 / 20 Matches

Clay

James DuckworthMatteo Arnaldi
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 62.5% 5 / 8 Matches 56.3% 9 / 16 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 62.5% 5 / 8 Matches 56.3% 9 / 16 Matches

Grass

James DuckworthMatteo Arnaldi
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 25.0% 1 / 4 Matches 66.7% 2 / 3 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 25.0% 1 / 4 Matches 66.7% 2 / 3 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

James Duckworth Matteo Arnaldi
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 48.7% 19 / 39 Matches 54.6% 18 / 33 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 56.7% 38 / 67 Matches 50.0% 23 / 46 Matches
Current rank 71 36

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

James Duckworth Matteo Arnaldi
Prize money (career) $4,021,607 USD $2,813,165 USD
Rating 71 36
Age 34 25
Height 1.83m 1.85m
Weight 82kg 71kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

James Duckworth Matteo Arnaldi
Match Wins 49 % 55 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 48 % 50 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 50 % 83 %
Wins in Straight Sets 31 % 12 %
Wins From Behind 23 % 35 %
Won At Least 1 Set 69 % 82 %
Set 1 Win 44 % 42 %
Set 2 Win 56 % 52 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

James Duckworth Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.15 9.55 9.85
Over 6.5 100 % 88 % 94 %
Over 7.5 97 % 69 % 83 %
Over 8.5 82 % 58 % 70 %
Over 9.5 61 % 35 % 48 %
Over 10.5 30 % 19 % 25 %
Over 11.5 30 % 19 % 25 %

Aces

James Duckworth Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Aces Per Match 6.94 4.58 11.52
Most Aces in a match 55 % 54 % N/A
1+ 97 % 96 % 100 %
2+ 97 % 92 % 100 %
3+ 97 % 69 % 96 %
4+ 88 % 54 % 91 %
5+ 76 % 42 % 83 %

Breaks

James Duckworth Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.95 15 17.95
Over 0.5 97 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 45 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 45 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 45 % 100 % 99 %
Over 4.5 45 % 100 % 99 %
Over 5.5 0 % 100 % 99 %

Tie-breaks

James Duckworth Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.48 0.58 0.53
Over 0.5 39 % 35 % 37 %
Over 1.5 9 % 19 % 14 %
Under 0.5 61 % 65 % 37 %
Under 1.5 91 % 81 % 14 %

Double faults

James Duckworth Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Double Faults Per Match 3.85 4.35 8.2
Over 0.5 (1+) 88 % 100 % 99 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 76 % 100 % 97 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 64 % 85 % 89 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 55 % 65 % 87 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 42 % 46 % 78 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 30 % 19 % 69 %

Net points

James Duckworth Matteo Arnaldi Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 6.58 8.68 15.26
Over 4.5 (5+) 71 % 65 % 68 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 67 % 60 % 64 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 67 % 50 % 59 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 58 % 35 % 47 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 50 % 35 % 43 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 46 % 30 % 38 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.62 60.7% BetBoom
P2 2.50 39.3% BetBoom

Arnaldi M take on Duckworth J in tennis, in US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, on 31 August 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Arnaldi M: roughly 60% to win. The bookmaker consensus (5 books) implies about 60% for the same outcome.

Latest form: Arnaldi M 2 won and 2 lost; Duckworth J 4 won and 1 lost. Glicko ratings: Arnaldi M 1706, Duckworth J 1741, a gap of 36 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 36 Glicko rating points, the model's 60% for Arnaldi M. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Gea, Arthur2
Nagal, Sumit0
Chidekh, Clement2
Coria, Federico0
Mikrut, Luka2
Sanchez Izquierdo, Nikolas0
Kouame, Moise1
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Moller, Elmer1
Neumayer, Lukas2
McCabe, James0
Squire, Henri1
Jorda Sanchis, David2
Kwon, Soonwoo0
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Justo, Guido Ivan0
Ilagan, Andre2
Boyer, Tristan1
Kym, Jerome2
Added, Dan0
Smith, Colton2
Pellegrino, Andrea1
Fearnley, Jacob2
Carballes Baena, Roberto0
Pavlovic, Luka2
Varillas, Juan Pablo1
Dedura-Palomero, Diego0
Ferreira Silva, Frederico2
Coppejans, Kimmer0
Rodionov, Jurij2
Droguet, Titouan1
Rincon, Daniel2
Lajal, Mark1
Lee, Jordan2
Den Ouden, Guy1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto2
Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos1
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Milavsky, Daniel0
Shick, Braden2
Tabur, Clement0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gill, Felix0
Martin Tiffon, Pol0
Gentzsch, Tom2
Samuel, Toby2
Maestrelli, Francesco1
Bueno, Gonzalo0
Harris, Billy2
Roncadelli, Franco0
Ymer, Elias2
Johnson, Spencer1
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Meligeni Alves, Felipe0
Smith, Keegan0
Galarneau, Alexis2
Brancaccio, Raul0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago2
Napolitano, Stefano0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Blanchet, Ugo0
Pinnington Jones, Jack2
Svajda, Trevor0
Skatov, Timofey2
Bailly, Gilles Arnaud0
Giustino, Lorenzo0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian2
Midon, Lautaro0
Gomez, Federico Agustin0
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Holmgren, August1
Schwaerzler, Joel2
Heide, Gustavo1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Noguchi, Rio1
Kolar, Zdenek0
Gojo, Borna2
Nardi, Luca0
Cina, Federico0
Echargui, Moez0
Dellien, Hugo2
Piros, Zsombor2
Alcala Gurri, Max0
Martinez, Pedro0
Glinka, Daniil2
Kasnikowski, Maks1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai2
Sakellaridis, Stefanos0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Mejia, Nicolas1
Draxl, Liam2
Daniel, Taro1
Johnson, Andrew2
Secord, Jack0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan2
Basilashvili, Nikoloz0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Feldbausch, Kilian0
Cecchinato, Marco2
Broady, Liam0
Bertola, Remy2
Moro Canas, Alejandro0
Wendelken, Harry2
Travaglia, Stefano1
Rocha, Henrique2
Mmoh, Michael0
Tomic, Bernard1
Harris, Lloyd2
Onclin, Gauthier0
Sachko, Vitaliy2
Bolt, Alex0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Ofner, Sebastian1
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael2
Searle, Henry0
Clarke, Jay1
Sakamoto, Rei2
Djere, Laslo0
Muller, Alexandre2
Qualification round 2
Gea, Arthur2
Chidekh, Clement1
Mikrut, Luka0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Neumayer, Lukas0
Jorda Sanchis, David0
Lajovic, Dusan2
Gaston, Hugo2
Ilagan, Andre0
Kym, Jerome1
Smith, Colton2
Fearnley, Jacob2
Pavlovic, Luka1
Ferreira Silva, Frederico1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel2
Lee, Jordan1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Shick, Braden0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gentzsch, Tom0
Samuel, Toby2
Harris, Billy1
Ymer, Elias0
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Galarneau, Alexis0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Pinnington Jones, Jack1
Skatov, Timofey0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian1
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Schwaerzler, Joel1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Gojo, Borna0
Cina, Federico2
Dellien, Hugo1
Piros, Zsombor2
Glinka, Daniil1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Draxl, Liam2
Johnson, Andrew0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Cecchinato, Marco0
Bertola, Remy1
Wendelken, Harry2
Rocha, Henrique1
Harris, Lloyd2
Sachko, Vitaliy1
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael0
Sakamoto, Rei2
Muller, Alexandre0
Qualification Final
Gea, Arthur0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Smith, Colton1
Fearnley, Jacob1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro0
Passaro, Francesco2
Samuel, Toby0
Garin, Cristian0
Svrcina, Dalibor2
McDonald, Mackenzie1
Virtanen, Otto0
Dimitrov, Grigor0
Dougaz, Aziz0
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Bu, Yunchaokete1
Cina, Federico2
Piros, Zsombor0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Draxl, Liam1
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Gaubas, Vilius1
Wendelken, Harry2
Harris, Lloyd2
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo0
Nishikori, Kei0
Sakamoto, Rei2

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Start 31.08.2026 17:10 UTC
Market 1 38.9% @ 2.40 / 2 61.1% @ 1.53
Coverage grass
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Arnaldi M 60%
💹 Market Arnaldi M 60%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Arnaldi M - Duckworth J

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 24
Set Arnaldi M Duckworth J Result
Set 1 7 5 7:5
Set 2 3 6 3:6
Set 3 2 6 2:6
Metric Arnaldi M Duckworth J SStats
Nevynuzhdennye oshibki 21 22 final
Vinnery 26 21 final
Breyk-poynty realizovany 3/12 2/7 final
Points na prieme 39% (30/76) 34% (24/70) final
Eysy 7 3 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 5/7 9/12 final
Dvoynye oshibki 4 5 final
Pervaya podacha, % 51% 63% final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 60.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.724 / LogLoss 0.920
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 51.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.525 / LogLoss 0.718
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Arnaldi M 60.5% 58.4% market and model agree
Duckworth J 39.6% 41.6% market and model agree
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko60.2% · +Elo prior (weight0.35).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 60.2% / 39.8% probabilities
Rating 1,706 / 1,741 Arnaldi M / Duckworth J
RD 199 / 128 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,307-2,104 / 1,485-1,997 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.53 Fonbet · no value · model 39.8%
1 2.40 Fonbet · value +44.4% · model 60.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.95 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.52 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.35 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 2.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.75 57.1%
1.93 51.8%
2.15 46.5%
2.13 47.0%
1.52 65.8%
1.95 51.3%
1.40 71.4%
1.50 66.7%
2.20 45.5%
1.62 61.7%
2.30 43.5%
1.95 51.3%
1.82 55.0%
1.62 61.7%
1.63 61.4%
1.60 62.5%
1.53 65.4%
1.43 69.9%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.65 60.6%
1.28 78.1%
11.50 8.7%
3.05 32.8%
1.02 98.0%
1.35 74.1%
2.15 46.5%
3.55 28.2%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 35.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 36.5 1.72 58.1%
Over 37.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 38.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 39.5 1.75 57.1%
Over 40.5 1.72 58.1%
Over 41.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 42.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 43.5 1.75 57.1%
Over 44.5 1.63 61.4%
Over 45.5 1.73 57.8%
Over 46.5 1.57 63.7%
Over 47.5 1.75 57.1%
Over 48.5 1.68 59.5%
Over 49.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 50.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 51.5 2.25 44.4%
Under 35.5 2.45 40.8%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 3.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 4.5 1.65 60.6%
Under 3.5 2.45 40.8%
Under 4.5 2.15 46.5%
Match center
Arnaldi M
L L W L L
2026-08-15 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Arnaldi M Landaluce M 2:1 Arnaldi M
2026-08-07 2026 Montreal, Canada
Arnaldi M Griekspoor T 2:1 Arnaldi M
2026-08-05 2026 Montreal, Canada
Arnaldi M Marozsan F 1:2 Arnaldi M
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Arnaldi M Arnaldi M 0:1 Musetti L
2026-07-16 2026 Umag, Croatia
Arnaldi M Dzumhur D 2:1 Arnaldi M
1 Wins
4 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
20% Win percentage
Duckworth J
L W W W W
2026-08-28 2026 Winston Salem, USA
Duckworth J 0:2 Fery A Duckworth J
2026-08-28 2026 Winston Salem, USA
Marozsan F 1:2 Duckworth J Duckworth J
2026-08-26 2026 Winston Salem, USA
Sonego L 0:2 Duckworth J Duckworth J
2026-08-25 2026 Winston Salem, USA
Duckworth J 2:0 Navone M Duckworth J
2026-08-24 2026 Winston Salem, USA
Vandecasteele Q 0:2 Duckworth J Duckworth J
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.6 Sets lost
80% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arnaldi M vs Duckworth J?

By the PropickAI model, Duckworth J is favoured — about 60% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Arnaldi M vs Duckworth J?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Duckworth J. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Arnaldi M vs Duckworth J?

Live odds for Arnaldi M vs Duckworth J from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Arnaldi M vs Duckworth J start?

August 31, 2026.