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AI verdict

AI pick Nakashima B win probability ~84% confidence High best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Nakashima B. Full breakdown below.

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US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
31.08.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

Nakashima B vs Baez S — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge grass 31.08.2026 19:00 UTC Finished
31.08.2026 19:00 UTC Finished
Nakashima B
Nakashima B
Rank #17 Elo 2485
65Average Form
L W W W W L W L
Baez S
Baez S
Rank #51 Elo 1044
58Average Form
W W L W W W W L
2:0 6:2 6:1
1 2 GP
Nakashima B 6 6 2
Baez S 2 1 0
1 2
Coverage: grass
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Nakashima B — 84%

1 · Nakashima B ✓ Pick84.4%
market 86%
2 · Baez S15.6%
market 14%

Model estimate: win Nakashima B 84.4%, win Baez S 15.6%. Model favourite — Nakashima B.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Nakashima B

Model confidence 88% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nakashima B - Baez S August 31, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nakashima B.

Line favourite Fonbet: Nakashima B. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 7.20
  • Glicko: Nakashima B 84.4% / Baez S 15.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.2% 7 books · best price +3.5%
1 ✓ Pick 86.4%
2 13.6%

Odds source: consensus of 7 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.28 ↓ 1.12
Winner 2 3.70 ↑ 6.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Nakashima B
85%
1.14
Baez S
15%
16.00
Total
Over 33.5
50%
1.92
Under 33.5
50%
1.90

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Nakashima B Baez S
Win % 58.9% 52.7%
Hard % 59.7% 38.5%
Clay % 53.2% 62.7%
Grass % 62% 25%
Deciding set % 49.1% 54.1%
Tie-breaks % 53.6% 47%
Titles (total) 2 8
Last 10 LWWWWLWWWW LWLWWWLWLW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#17 Rating #51
25 Age 25
1.88m Height (cm) 1.70m
83kg Weight (kg) 70kg
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Nakashima B Baez S
Aces per match 9.48 1.48
Double faults per match 1.12 1.81
Breaks per match 2.17 2.28

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Brandon Nakashima
Rank:17 Elo: 2485
L W W W W L W L
Sebastian Baez
Rank:51 Elo: 1044
W W L W W W W L
Elo favourite:Nakashima B (edge +1441 Elo)

Hard

Brandon NakashimaSebastian Baez
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 71.0% 22 / 31 Matches 63.2% 12 / 19 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 63.0% 29 / 46 Matches 52.0% 13 / 25 Matches

Clay

Brandon NakashimaSebastian Baez
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 42.9% 3 / 7 Matches 58.6% 17 / 29 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 42.9% 3 / 7 Matches 56.7% 17 / 30 Matches

Grass

Brandon NakashimaSebastian Baez
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 75.0% 3 / 4 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 75.0% 3 / 4 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez
H2H wins 1 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Sets 3 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Wins this year 64.6% 31 / 48 Matches 57.7% 30 / 52 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 60.3% 38 / 63 Matches 52.5% 31 / 59 Matches
Current rank 17 51

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez
Prize money (career) $6,331,402 USD $4,315,437 USD
Rating 17 51
Age 25 25
Height 1.88m 1.70m
Weight 83kg 70kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez
Match Wins 65 % 58 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 67 % 60 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 50 % 33 %
Wins in Straight Sets 48 % 44 %
Wins From Behind 19 % 12 %
Won At Least 1 Set 85 % 71 %
Set 1 Win 69 % 62 %
Set 2 Win 65 % 54 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
Jul 1 2024 Wimbledon ATP (Grass) Brandon Nakashima 3 – 0 Sebastian Baez

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.27 9.88 10.08
Over 6.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 7.5 100 % 90 % 95 %
Over 8.5 79 % 79 % 79 %
Over 9.5 48 % 63 % 56 %
Over 10.5 36 % 29 % 33 %
Over 11.5 36 % 29 % 33 %

Aces

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez Match total
Aces Per Match 9.48 1.48 10.96
Most Aces in a match 62 % 15 % N/A
1+ 100 % 77 % 99 %
2+ 98 % 42 % 97 %
3+ 95 % 17 % 92 %
4+ 86 % 6 % 84 %
5+ 86 % 6 % 75 %

Breaks

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.17 2.28 4.45
Over 0.5 95 % 98 % 99 %
Over 1.5 93 % 96 % 99 %
Over 2.5 40 % 15 % 55 %
Over 3.5 38 % 10 % 52 %
Over 4.5 0 % 4 % 50 %
Over 5.5 0 % 2 % 47 %

Tie-breaks

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.5 0.21 0.35
Over 0.5 45 % 21 % 33 %
Over 1.5 5 % 0 % 2 %
Under 0.5 55 % 79 % 33 %
Under 1.5 95 % 100 % 2 %

Double faults

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez Match total
Double Faults Per Match 1.12 1.81 2.93
Over 0.5 (1+) 57 % 92 % 98 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 33 % 46 % 76 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 14 % 29 % 67 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 7 % 13 % 55 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 0 % 2 % 41 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 0 % 0 % 30 %

Net points

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 6.63 5.48 12.11
Over 4.5 (5+) 66 % 50 % 58 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 54 % 40 % 47 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 51 % 27 % 39 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 46 % 13 % 30 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 40 % 13 % 27 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 31 % 10 % 21 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.14 86.4% BetBoom
P2 7.20 13.7% BetBoom

Nakashima B host Baez S in tennis, in US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, on 31 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Nakashima B as the favourite at around 84%. The bookmaker consensus (7 books) implies about 85% for the same outcome.

Recent form reads: Nakashima B have 4 won and 1 lost of their last 5; Baez S have 3 won and 2 lost of 5. On the Glicko scale it is 1871 for Nakashima B against 1658 for Baez S - a gap of 213 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. That is a 1-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Nakashima B (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 213 Glicko rating points, the model's 84% for Nakashima B. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Gea, Arthur2
Nagal, Sumit0
Chidekh, Clement2
Coria, Federico0
Mikrut, Luka2
Sanchez Izquierdo, Nikolas0
Kouame, Moise1
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Moller, Elmer1
Neumayer, Lukas2
McCabe, James0
Squire, Henri1
Jorda Sanchis, David2
Kwon, Soonwoo0
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Justo, Guido Ivan0
Ilagan, Andre2
Boyer, Tristan1
Kym, Jerome2
Added, Dan0
Smith, Colton2
Pellegrino, Andrea1
Fearnley, Jacob2
Carballes Baena, Roberto0
Pavlovic, Luka2
Varillas, Juan Pablo1
Dedura-Palomero, Diego0
Ferreira Silva, Frederico2
Coppejans, Kimmer0
Rodionov, Jurij2
Droguet, Titouan1
Rincon, Daniel2
Lajal, Mark1
Lee, Jordan2
Den Ouden, Guy1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto2
Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos1
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Milavsky, Daniel0
Shick, Braden2
Tabur, Clement0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gill, Felix0
Martin Tiffon, Pol0
Gentzsch, Tom2
Samuel, Toby2
Maestrelli, Francesco1
Bueno, Gonzalo0
Harris, Billy2
Roncadelli, Franco0
Ymer, Elias2
Johnson, Spencer1
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Meligeni Alves, Felipe0
Smith, Keegan0
Galarneau, Alexis2
Brancaccio, Raul0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago2
Napolitano, Stefano0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Blanchet, Ugo0
Pinnington Jones, Jack2
Svajda, Trevor0
Skatov, Timofey2
Bailly, Gilles Arnaud0
Giustino, Lorenzo0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian2
Midon, Lautaro0
Gomez, Federico Agustin0
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Holmgren, August1
Schwaerzler, Joel2
Heide, Gustavo1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Noguchi, Rio1
Kolar, Zdenek0
Gojo, Borna2
Nardi, Luca0
Cina, Federico0
Echargui, Moez0
Dellien, Hugo2
Piros, Zsombor2
Alcala Gurri, Max0
Martinez, Pedro0
Glinka, Daniil2
Kasnikowski, Maks1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai2
Sakellaridis, Stefanos0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Mejia, Nicolas1
Draxl, Liam2
Daniel, Taro1
Johnson, Andrew2
Secord, Jack0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan2
Basilashvili, Nikoloz0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Feldbausch, Kilian0
Cecchinato, Marco2
Broady, Liam0
Bertola, Remy2
Moro Canas, Alejandro0
Wendelken, Harry2
Travaglia, Stefano1
Rocha, Henrique2
Mmoh, Michael0
Tomic, Bernard1
Harris, Lloyd2
Onclin, Gauthier0
Sachko, Vitaliy2
Bolt, Alex0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Ofner, Sebastian1
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael2
Searle, Henry0
Clarke, Jay1
Sakamoto, Rei2
Djere, Laslo0
Muller, Alexandre2
Qualification round 2
Gea, Arthur2
Chidekh, Clement1
Mikrut, Luka0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Neumayer, Lukas0
Jorda Sanchis, David0
Lajovic, Dusan2
Gaston, Hugo2
Ilagan, Andre0
Kym, Jerome1
Smith, Colton2
Fearnley, Jacob2
Pavlovic, Luka1
Ferreira Silva, Frederico1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel2
Lee, Jordan1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Shick, Braden0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gentzsch, Tom0
Samuel, Toby2
Harris, Billy1
Ymer, Elias0
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Galarneau, Alexis0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Pinnington Jones, Jack1
Skatov, Timofey0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian1
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Schwaerzler, Joel1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Gojo, Borna0
Cina, Federico2
Dellien, Hugo1
Piros, Zsombor2
Glinka, Daniil1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Draxl, Liam2
Johnson, Andrew0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Cecchinato, Marco0
Bertola, Remy1
Wendelken, Harry2
Rocha, Henrique1
Harris, Lloyd2
Sachko, Vitaliy1
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael0
Sakamoto, Rei2
Muller, Alexandre0
Qualification Final
Gea, Arthur0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Smith, Colton1
Fearnley, Jacob1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro0
Passaro, Francesco2
Samuel, Toby0
Garin, Cristian0
Svrcina, Dalibor2
McDonald, Mackenzie1
Virtanen, Otto0
Dimitrov, Grigor0
Dougaz, Aziz0
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Bu, Yunchaokete1
Cina, Federico2
Piros, Zsombor0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Draxl, Liam1
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Gaubas, Vilius1
Wendelken, Harry2
Harris, Lloyd2
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo0
Nishikori, Kei0
Sakamoto, Rei2

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Start 31.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Market 1 87.7% @ 1.01 / 2 12.3% @ 7.20
Coverage grass
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Nakashima B 84%
💹 Market Nakashima B 86%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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$10,000Virtual balance

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Match center

Nakashima B - Baez S

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 24
Set Nakashima B Baez S Result
Set 1 6 2 6:2
Set 2 6 1 6:1
Metric Nakashima B Baez S SStats
Nevynuzhdennye oshibki 17 20 final
Vinnery 34 9 final
Breyk-poynty realizovany 7/11 0/3 final
Points na prieme 58% (36/62) 25% (16/64) final
Eysy 12 0 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 3/3 4/11 final
Dvoynye oshibki 0 4 final
Pervaya podacha, % 67% 55% final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 84.4% fact: home hit / ROI 13.8% / Brier 0.049 / LogLoss 0.170
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 54.1% fact: home hit / ROI 13.8% / Brier 0.421 / LogLoss 0.614
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nakashima B 85.1% 81.2% market and model agree
Baez S 14.9% 18.8% market and model agree
1X2: 7 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko84.4% · +Elo prior (weight0.16).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 84.4% / 15.6% probabilities
Rating 1,871 / 1,658 Nakashima B / Baez S
RD 102 / 115 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,668-2,075 / 1,429-1,887 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.64 market consensus · no value · model 15.6%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 84.4%
Total
Over 0.5 2.02 market consensus · line only
Over 1.5 6.10 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.79 55.9% 1.77 56.5% —
1.74 57.5% 1.72 58.1% —
2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5% —
2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% —
2.07 48.3% 2.13 47.0% —
1.79 55.9% 1.77 56.5% —
— — 4.20 23.8%
— — 4.50 22.2%
— — 3.80 26.3%
— — 11.50 8.7%
— — 9.50 10.5%
— — 6.90 14.5%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.02 98.0%
1.10 90.9%
10.00 10.0%
5.70 17.5%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 32.5 — 1.84 54.4%
Over 33.5 1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6%
Over 34.5 1.94 51.6% 1.90 52.6%
Over 35.5 1.94 51.6% 1.97 50.8%
Over 36.5 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6%
Under 32.5 — 1.97 50.8%
Under 33.5 1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6%
Under 34.5 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6%
Under 35.5 1.84 54.4% 1.83 54.6%
Under 36.5 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 3.5 5.70 17.5%
Under 3.5 1.10 90.9%
Match center
Nakashima B
L W W W W
2026-08-22 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Nakashima B Nakashima B 0:2 Tiafoe F
2026-08-21 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Nakashima B Fritz T 1:2 Nakashima B
2026-08-19 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Nakashima B Borges N 1:2 Nakashima B
2026-08-18 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Nakashima B Nakashima B 2:1 Medvedev D
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Nakashima B Nakashima B 2:0 Kovacevic A
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Baez S
L W L W W
2026-08-26 2026 Winston Salem, USA
Cerundolo J M 2:0 Baez S Baez S
2026-08-25 2026 Winston Salem, USA
Grenier H 0:2 Baez S Baez S
2026-08-24 2026 Cancun, Mexico
Baez S 1:2 Hurkacz H Baez S
2026-08-23 2026 Cancun, Mexico
Baez S 2:0 Harris L Baez S
2026-08-22 2026 Cancun, Mexico
Baez S 2:0 Wong C Baez S
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nakashima B vs Baez S?

By the PropickAI model, Nakashima B is favoured — about 84% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Nakashima B vs Baez S?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Nakashima B. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Nakashima B vs Baez S?

Live odds for Nakashima B vs Baez S from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Nakashima B vs Baez S start?

August 31, 2026.