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AI verdict

AI pick Tabilo A win probability ~51% best odds 1.67

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Tabilo A. Full breakdown below.

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US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
02.09.2026 15:00 UTC

Popyrin A vs Tabilo A — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge grass 02.09.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
02.09.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
Popyrin A
Popyrin A
Rank #130 Elo 458
32Bad Form
L W L L W W W W
Tabilo A
Tabilo A
Rank #28 Elo 1688
57Average Form
L L W W W L L L
-:-
Coverage: grass
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Tabilo A — 51%

1 · Popyrin A48.9%
2 · Tabilo A51.1%

Model estimate: win Popyrin A 48.9%, win Tabilo A 51.1%. Model favourite — Tabilo A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Popyrin A - Tabilo A September 2, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Tabilo A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.20 / 2 1.67

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.2% 6 books · best price +2.1%
1 43.2%
2 56.9%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.95 → 1.95
Winner P2 1.85 → 1.85

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Popyrin A
43%
2.25
Tabilo A
57%
1.70
Total
Over 41.5
49%
1.95
Under 41.5
51%
1.95

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

About the athletes

- Country -
#130 Rating #28
27 Age 29
1.96m Height (cm) 1.88m
78kg Weight (kg) 75kg
Right Hand Left
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Popyrin A Tabilo A
Aces per match 7.71 5.29
Double faults per match 2.16 1.78
Breaks per match 1.98 2.23

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Alexei Popyrin
Rank:130 Elo: 458
L W L L W W W W
Alejandro Tabilo
Rank:28 Elo: 1688
L L W W W L L L
Elo favourite:Tabilo A (edge +1230 Elo)

Hard

Alexei PopyrinAlejandro Tabilo
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 27.8% 5 / 18 Matches 58.8% 10 / 17 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 25.0% 6 / 24 Matches 64.3% 27 / 42 Matches

Clay

Alexei PopyrinAlejandro Tabilo
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 54.6% 6 / 11 Matches 62.1% 18 / 29 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 54.6% 6 / 11 Matches 62.1% 18 / 29 Matches

Grass

Alexei PopyrinAlejandro Tabilo
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 0.0% 0 / 2 Matches 0.0% 0 / 2 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 0.0% 0 / 2 Matches 0.0% 0 / 2 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo
H2H wins 1 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Sets 3 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Wins this year 32.4% 11 / 34 Matches 56.6% 30 / 53 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 30.0% 12 / 40 Matches 60.3% 47 / 78 Matches
Current rank 130 28

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo
Prize money (career) $8,331,799 USD $4,284,053 USD
Rating 130 28
Age 27 29
Height 1.96m 1.88m
Weight 78kg 75kg
Playing hand Right-handed Left-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo
Match Wins 32 % 57 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 35 % 58 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 0 % 50 %
Wins in Straight Sets 15 % 32 %
Wins From Behind 12 % 26 %
Won At Least 1 Set 53 % 74 %
Set 1 Win 41 % 55 %
Set 2 Win 27 % 51 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
May 28 2025 French Open ATP (Clay) Alexei Popyrin 3 – 0 Alejandro Tabilo

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.53 9.83 9.68
Over 6.5 94 % 98 % 96 %
Over 7.5 87 % 92 % 90 %
Over 8.5 81 % 77 % 79 %
Over 9.5 48 % 56 % 52 %
Over 10.5 19 % 27 % 23 %
Over 11.5 19 % 27 % 23 %

Aces

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo Match total
Aces Per Match 7.71 5.29 13.00
Most Aces in a match 65 % 35 % N/A
1+ 97 % 96 % 99 %
2+ 94 % 92 % 99 %
3+ 90 % 80 % 97 %
4+ 81 % 67 % 97 %
5+ 74 % 57 % 95 %

Breaks

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.98 2.23 4.21
Over 0.5 55 % 67 % 100 %
Over 1.5 55 % 65 % 98 %
Over 2.5 55 % 61 % 78 %
Over 3.5 3 % 45 % 57 %
Over 4.5 3 % 4 % 53 %
Over 5.5 0 % 4 % 24 %

Tie-breaks

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.26 0.35 0.31
Over 0.5 23 % 33 % 28 %
Over 1.5 3 % 2 % 3 %
Under 0.5 77 % 67 % 28 %
Under 1.5 97 % 98 % 3 %

Double faults

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.16 1.78 3.94
Over 0.5 (1+) 77 % 69 % 98 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 68 % 55 % 89 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 32 % 35 % 77 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 19 % 14 % 61 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 10 % 4 % 38 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 6 % 0 % 30 %

Net points

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.39 6.75 14.14
Over 4.5 (5+) 70 % 70 % 70 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 63 % 55 % 59 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 59 % 50 % 55 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 56 % 40 % 48 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 48 % 33 % 41 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 19 % 25 % 22 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.95 48.7% BetBoom
P2 1.85 51.3% BetBoom

Popyrin A go head-to-head with Tabilo A in tennis, in US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, on 2 September 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Tabilo A as the favourite at around 51%. Sportsbook prices (2 books) put that result at roughly 51%.

Latest form: Popyrin A 2 won and 0 lost; Tabilo A 2 won and 3 lost. Popyrin A arrive on a winning run. Glicko ratings: Popyrin A 1808, Tabilo A 1697, a gap of 111 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 111 Glicko rating points, the model's 51% for Tabilo A. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Gea, Arthur2
Nagal, Sumit0
Chidekh, Clement2
Coria, Federico0
Mikrut, Luka2
Sanchez Izquierdo, Nikolas0
Kouame, Moise1
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Moller, Elmer1
Neumayer, Lukas2
McCabe, James0
Squire, Henri1
Jorda Sanchis, David2
Kwon, Soonwoo0
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Justo, Guido Ivan0
Ilagan, Andre2
Boyer, Tristan1
Kym, Jerome2
Added, Dan0
Smith, Colton2
Pellegrino, Andrea1
Fearnley, Jacob2
Carballes Baena, Roberto0
Pavlovic, Luka2
Varillas, Juan Pablo1
Dedura-Palomero, Diego0
Ferreira Silva, Frederico2
Coppejans, Kimmer0
Rodionov, Jurij2
Droguet, Titouan1
Rincon, Daniel2
Lajal, Mark1
Lee, Jordan2
Den Ouden, Guy1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto2
Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos1
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Milavsky, Daniel0
Shick, Braden2
Tabur, Clement0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gill, Felix0
Martin Tiffon, Pol0
Gentzsch, Tom2
Samuel, Toby2
Maestrelli, Francesco1
Bueno, Gonzalo0
Harris, Billy2
Roncadelli, Franco0
Ymer, Elias2
Johnson, Spencer1
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Meligeni Alves, Felipe0
Smith, Keegan0
Galarneau, Alexis2
Brancaccio, Raul0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago2
Napolitano, Stefano0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Blanchet, Ugo0
Pinnington Jones, Jack2
Svajda, Trevor0
Skatov, Timofey2
Bailly, Gilles Arnaud0
Giustino, Lorenzo0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian2
Midon, Lautaro0
Gomez, Federico Agustin0
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Holmgren, August1
Schwaerzler, Joel2
Heide, Gustavo1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Noguchi, Rio1
Kolar, Zdenek0
Gojo, Borna2
Nardi, Luca0
Cina, Federico0
Echargui, Moez0
Dellien, Hugo2
Piros, Zsombor2
Alcala Gurri, Max0
Martinez, Pedro0
Glinka, Daniil2
Kasnikowski, Maks1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai2
Sakellaridis, Stefanos0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Mejia, Nicolas1
Draxl, Liam2
Daniel, Taro1
Johnson, Andrew2
Secord, Jack0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan2
Basilashvili, Nikoloz0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Feldbausch, Kilian0
Cecchinato, Marco2
Broady, Liam0
Bertola, Remy2
Moro Canas, Alejandro0
Wendelken, Harry2
Travaglia, Stefano1
Rocha, Henrique2
Mmoh, Michael0
Tomic, Bernard1
Harris, Lloyd2
Onclin, Gauthier0
Sachko, Vitaliy2
Bolt, Alex0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Ofner, Sebastian1
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael2
Searle, Henry0
Clarke, Jay1
Sakamoto, Rei2
Djere, Laslo0
Muller, Alexandre2
Qualification round 2
Gea, Arthur2
Chidekh, Clement1
Mikrut, Luka0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Neumayer, Lukas0
Jorda Sanchis, David0
Lajovic, Dusan2
Gaston, Hugo2
Ilagan, Andre0
Kym, Jerome1
Smith, Colton2
Fearnley, Jacob2
Pavlovic, Luka1
Ferreira Silva, Frederico1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel2
Lee, Jordan1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Shick, Braden0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gentzsch, Tom0
Samuel, Toby2
Harris, Billy1
Ymer, Elias0
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Galarneau, Alexis0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Pinnington Jones, Jack1
Skatov, Timofey0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian1
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Schwaerzler, Joel1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Gojo, Borna0
Cina, Federico2
Dellien, Hugo1
Piros, Zsombor2
Glinka, Daniil1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Draxl, Liam2
Johnson, Andrew0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Cecchinato, Marco0
Bertola, Remy1
Wendelken, Harry2
Rocha, Henrique1
Harris, Lloyd2
Sachko, Vitaliy1
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael0
Sakamoto, Rei2
Muller, Alexandre0
Qualification Final
Gea, Arthur0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Smith, Colton1
Fearnley, Jacob1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro0
Passaro, Francesco2
Samuel, Toby0
Garin, Cristian0
Svrcina, Dalibor2
McDonald, Mackenzie1
Virtanen, Otto0
Dimitrov, Grigor0
Dougaz, Aziz0
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Bu, Yunchaokete1
Cina, Federico2
Piros, Zsombor0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Draxl, Liam1
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Gaubas, Vilius1
Wendelken, Harry2
Harris, Lloyd2
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo0
Nishikori, Kei0
Sakamoto, Rei2

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Start 02.09.2026 15:00 UTC
Market 1 43.2% @ 2.20 / 2 56.8% @ 1.67
Coverage grass
Form 5 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Tabilo A 51%
💹 Market Tabilo A 57%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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$10,000Virtual balance

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Match center

Popyrin A - Tabilo A

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Popyrin A 48.7% 44.8% market and model agree
Tabilo A 51.3% 55.2% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko48.9% · +Elo prior (weight0.36).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 48.9% / 51.1% probabilities
Rating 1,808 / 1,697 Popyrin A / Tabilo A
RD 238 / 101 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,332-2,283 / 1,495-1,899 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.67 Fonbet · no value · model 51.1%
1 2.20 Fonbet · weak value +7.6% · model 48.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.67 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.07 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 3.5 1.45 Fonbet · line only
Over 38.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.97 50.8% — 2.07 48.3%
1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 1.93 51.8%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.60 62.5%
— — 2.25 44.4%
— — 2.45 40.8%
— — 1.67 59.9%
— — 1.82 55.0%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 2.20 45.5%
1.82 55.0% — 1.57 63.7%
1.84 54.4% 1.84 54.4% 1.50 66.7%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
3.15 31.8%
5.70 17.5%
1.33 75.2%
1.11 90.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 38.5 — — 1.63 61.4%
Over 39.5 — — 1.73 57.8%
Over 40.5 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% 1.88 53.2%
Over 41.5 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3%
Over 42.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 43.5 — — 2.25 44.4%
Under 38.5 — — 2.15 46.5%
Under 39.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
Under 40.5 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.92 52.1%
Under 41.5 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.75 57.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 3.5 1.45 69.0%
Under 3.5 2.65 37.7%
Match center
Popyrin A
W L W L L
2026-08-31 2026 US Open, New York, USA
Popyrin A Dimitrov G 1:3 Popyrin A
2026-08-20 2026 Quebec City, Canada
Popyrin A Popyrin A 0:2 Gaston H
2026-08-18 2026 Quebec City, Canada
Popyrin A Maestrelli F 0:2 Popyrin A
2026-08-12 2026 Cincinnati, USA, Qualifying
Popyrin A Popyrin A 0:2 Droguet T
2026-08-08 2026 Montreal, Canada
Popyrin A Popyrin A 0:2 Tirante T A
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Tabilo A
W L W L L
2026-08-31 2026 US Open, New York, USA
Hanfmann Y 1:3 Tabilo A Tabilo A
2026-08-17 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Jodar R 2:0 Tabilo A Tabilo A
2026-08-15 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Struff J-L 0:2 Tabilo A Tabilo A
2026-08-05 2026 Montreal, Canada
Hurkacz H 2:0 Tabilo A Tabilo A
2026-08-02 2026 Washington, USA
Jodar R 2:1 Tabilo A Tabilo A
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
40% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

What does PropickAI predict for Popyrin A vs Tabilo A?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Tabilo A. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Popyrin A vs Tabilo A?

Live odds for Popyrin A vs Tabilo A from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Popyrin A vs Tabilo A start?

September 2, 2026.