PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
English

AI verdict

AI pick Shang Juncheng win probability ~65% confidence High best odds 14.00

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Shang Juncheng. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
Full Access Go deeper than the free pick Your free pick and probability are below. Full Access adds the full 7-AI consensus, every value-edge pick, math-model probabilities and complete reports for every match.
Get Full Access →
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
31.08.2026 21:35 UTC Match prediction

Shang Juncheng vs Trungelliti M — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge grass 31.08.2026 21:35 UTC Finished
31.08.2026 21:35 UTC Finished
Shang Juncheng
Shang Juncheng
Rank #83 Elo 731
56Average Form
L W W W L L W L
Trungelliti M
Trungelliti M
Rank #228 Elo 245
42Struggling Form
W L L W L W L L
2:1 6:0 6:7 6:1
1 2 3 GP
Shang Juncheng 6 6 6 2
Trungelliti M 0 7 1 1
1 2 3
Coverage: grass
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Shang Juncheng — 65%

1 · Shang Juncheng ✓ Pick64.6%
market 65%
2 · Trungelliti M35.4%
market 35%

Model estimate: win Shang Juncheng 64.6%, win Trungelliti M 35.4%. Model favourite — Shang Juncheng.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Trungelliti M

Model confidence 93% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shang Juncheng - Trungelliti M August 31, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Trungelliti M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Trungelliti M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 14.00 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Shang Juncheng 64.6% / Trungelliti M 35.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 6 books · best price +852.4%
1 ✓ Pick 64.8%
2 35.2%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.35 ↑ 1.45
Winner 2 3.15 ↓ 2.70

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Shang Juncheng
65%
14.00
Trungelliti M
35%
2.77
Total
Over 38.5
50%
2.02
Under 38.5
50%
1.92

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Unlock the full AI analysis

Get the 7-AI consensus, math-model probabilities, value picks and full reports for every match with Full Access.

Get Full Access →
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Shang Juncheng Trungelliti M
Win % 53.7% 56.6%
Hard % 54.6% 46.3%
Clay % 43.8% 61.7%
Grass % 60% 27.3%
Deciding set % 50% 59.7%
Tie-breaks % 56.1% 48.1%
Titles (total) 1 5
Last 10 LLWWLLLLWL LWWWLLWLWL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#83 Rating #228
36 Age 21
1.78m Height (cm) 1.80m
80kg Weight (kg) 73kg
Right Hand Left
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Shang Juncheng Trungelliti M
Aces per match 4.60 3.40
Double faults per match 4 2.3
Breaks per match 3.96 1.45

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Marco Trungelliti
Rank:83 Elo: 731
L W W W L L W L
Juncheng Shang
Rank:228 Elo: 245
W L L W L W L L
Elo favourite:Trungelliti M (edge +486 Elo)

Hard

Marco TrungellitiJuncheng Shang
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 50.0% 5 / 10 Matches 40.0% 4 / 10 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 43.8% 7 / 16 Matches 41.2% 7 / 17 Matches

Clay

Marco TrungellitiJuncheng Shang
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 62.5% 20 / 32 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 68.5% 37 / 54 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Grass

Marco TrungellitiJuncheng Shang
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 33.3% 1 / 3 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 33.3% 1 / 3 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Marco Trungelliti Juncheng Shang
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 56.3% 27 / 48 Matches 41.7% 5 / 12 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 59.7% 46 / 77 Matches 42.1% 8 / 19 Matches
Current rank 83 228

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Marco Trungelliti Juncheng Shang
Prize money (career) $2,135,367 USD $1,558,257 USD
Rating 83 228
Age 36 21
Height 1.78m 1.80m
Weight 80kg 73kg
Playing hand Right-handed Left-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Marco Trungelliti Juncheng Shang
Match Wins 56 % 42 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 58 % 40 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 50 % 50 %
Wins in Straight Sets 31 % 25 %
Wins From Behind 25 % 0 %
Won At Least 1 Set 81 % 58 %
Set 1 Win 56 % 58 %
Set 2 Win 56 % 25 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Marco Trungelliti Juncheng Shang Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.6 9.92 10.26
Over 6.5 98 % 100 % 99 %
Over 7.5 98 % 80 % 89 %
Over 8.5 87 % 80 % 84 %
Over 9.5 69 % 50 % 60 %
Over 10.5 38 % 20 % 29 %
Over 11.5 38 % 20 % 29 %

Aces

Marco Trungelliti Juncheng Shang Match total
Aces Per Match 4.60 3.40 8.00
Most Aces in a match 42 % 20 % N/A
1+ 96 % 90 % 100 %
2+ 84 % 60 % 99 %
3+ 71 % 60 % 99 %
4+ 56 % 50 % 98 %
5+ 42 % 40 % 96 %

Breaks

Marco Trungelliti Juncheng Shang Match total
Breaks Per Match 3.96 1.45 5.41
Over 0.5 100 % 40 % 100 %
Over 1.5 100 % 40 % 100 %
Over 2.5 98 % 0 % 75 %
Over 3.5 98 % 0 % 70 %
Over 4.5 0 % 0 % 49 %
Over 5.5 0 % 0 % 49 %

Tie-breaks

Marco Trungelliti Juncheng Shang Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.53 0.3 0.42
Over 0.5 44 % 30 % 37 %
Over 1.5 7 % 0 % 3 %
Under 0.5 56 % 70 % 37 %
Under 1.5 93 % 100 % 3 %

Double faults

Marco Trungelliti Juncheng Shang Match total
Double Faults Per Match 4 2.3 6.3
Over 0.5 (1+) 96 % 80 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 82 % 80 % 100 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 67 % 50 % 87 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 49 % 10 % 70 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 38 % 10 % 67 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 29 % 0 % 50 %

Net points

Marco Trungelliti Juncheng Shang Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 8.45 7 15.45
Over 4.5 (5+) 80 % 57 % 69 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 80 % 57 % 69 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 73 % 57 % 65 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 60 % 43 % 52 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 57 % 43 % 50 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 47 % 29 % 38 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.50 64.9% BetBoom
P2 2.77 35.1% BetBoom

Shang Juncheng host Trungelliti M in tennis, in US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, on 31 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Shang Juncheng as the favourite at around 65%. The bookmaker consensus (6 books) implies about 65% for the same outcome.

Recent form reads: Shang Juncheng have 2 won and 2 lost of their last 4; Trungelliti M have 3 won and 2 lost of 5. On the Glicko scale it is 1553 for Shang Juncheng against 1481 for Trungelliti M - a gap of 72 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Shang Juncheng (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 72 Glicko rating points, the model's 65% for Shang Juncheng. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Gea, Arthur2
Nagal, Sumit0
Chidekh, Clement2
Coria, Federico0
Mikrut, Luka2
Sanchez Izquierdo, Nikolas0
Kouame, Moise1
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Moller, Elmer1
Neumayer, Lukas2
McCabe, James0
Squire, Henri1
Jorda Sanchis, David2
Kwon, Soonwoo0
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Justo, Guido Ivan0
Ilagan, Andre2
Boyer, Tristan1
Kym, Jerome2
Added, Dan0
Smith, Colton2
Pellegrino, Andrea1
Fearnley, Jacob2
Carballes Baena, Roberto0
Pavlovic, Luka2
Varillas, Juan Pablo1
Dedura-Palomero, Diego0
Ferreira Silva, Frederico2
Coppejans, Kimmer0
Rodionov, Jurij2
Droguet, Titouan1
Rincon, Daniel2
Lajal, Mark1
Lee, Jordan2
Den Ouden, Guy1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto2
Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos1
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Milavsky, Daniel0
Shick, Braden2
Tabur, Clement0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gill, Felix0
Martin Tiffon, Pol0
Gentzsch, Tom2
Samuel, Toby2
Maestrelli, Francesco1
Bueno, Gonzalo0
Harris, Billy2
Roncadelli, Franco0
Ymer, Elias2
Johnson, Spencer1
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Meligeni Alves, Felipe0
Smith, Keegan0
Galarneau, Alexis2
Brancaccio, Raul0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago2
Napolitano, Stefano0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Blanchet, Ugo0
Pinnington Jones, Jack2
Svajda, Trevor0
Skatov, Timofey2
Bailly, Gilles Arnaud0
Giustino, Lorenzo0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian2
Midon, Lautaro0
Gomez, Federico Agustin0
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Holmgren, August1
Schwaerzler, Joel2
Heide, Gustavo1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Noguchi, Rio1
Kolar, Zdenek0
Gojo, Borna2
Nardi, Luca0
Cina, Federico0
Echargui, Moez0
Dellien, Hugo2
Piros, Zsombor2
Alcala Gurri, Max0
Martinez, Pedro0
Glinka, Daniil2
Kasnikowski, Maks1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai2
Sakellaridis, Stefanos0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Mejia, Nicolas1
Draxl, Liam2
Daniel, Taro1
Johnson, Andrew2
Secord, Jack0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan2
Basilashvili, Nikoloz0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Feldbausch, Kilian0
Cecchinato, Marco2
Broady, Liam0
Bertola, Remy2
Moro Canas, Alejandro0
Wendelken, Harry2
Travaglia, Stefano1
Rocha, Henrique2
Mmoh, Michael0
Tomic, Bernard1
Harris, Lloyd2
Onclin, Gauthier0
Sachko, Vitaliy2
Bolt, Alex0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Ofner, Sebastian1
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael2
Searle, Henry0
Clarke, Jay1
Sakamoto, Rei2
Djere, Laslo0
Muller, Alexandre2
Qualification round 2
Gea, Arthur2
Chidekh, Clement1
Mikrut, Luka0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Neumayer, Lukas0
Jorda Sanchis, David0
Lajovic, Dusan2
Gaston, Hugo2
Ilagan, Andre0
Kym, Jerome1
Smith, Colton2
Fearnley, Jacob2
Pavlovic, Luka1
Ferreira Silva, Frederico1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel2
Lee, Jordan1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Shick, Braden0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gentzsch, Tom0
Samuel, Toby2
Harris, Billy1
Ymer, Elias0
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Galarneau, Alexis0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Pinnington Jones, Jack1
Skatov, Timofey0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian1
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Schwaerzler, Joel1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Gojo, Borna0
Cina, Federico2
Dellien, Hugo1
Piros, Zsombor2
Glinka, Daniil1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Draxl, Liam2
Johnson, Andrew0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Cecchinato, Marco0
Bertola, Remy1
Wendelken, Harry2
Rocha, Henrique1
Harris, Lloyd2
Sachko, Vitaliy1
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael0
Sakamoto, Rei2
Muller, Alexandre0
Qualification Final
Gea, Arthur0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Smith, Colton1
Fearnley, Jacob1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro0
Passaro, Francesco2
Samuel, Toby0
Garin, Cristian0
Svrcina, Dalibor2
McDonald, Mackenzie1
Virtanen, Otto0
Dimitrov, Grigor0
Dougaz, Aziz0
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Bu, Yunchaokete1
Cina, Federico2
Piros, Zsombor0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Draxl, Liam1
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Gaubas, Vilius1
Wendelken, Harry2
Harris, Lloyd2
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo0
Nishikori, Kei0
Sakamoto, Rei2

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Start 31.08.2026 21:35 UTC
Market 1 6.7% @ 14.00 / 2 93.3% @ 1.01
Coverage grass
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Shang Juncheng 65%
💹 Market Shang Juncheng 65%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.

My virtual bank & leaderboard →
Match center

Shang Juncheng - Trungelliti M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 24
Set Shang Juncheng Trungelliti M Result
Set 1 6 0 6:0
Set 2 6 7 6:7
Set 3 6 1 6:1
Metric Shang Juncheng Trungelliti M SStats
Nevynuzhdennye oshibki 0 0 final
Vinnery 0 0 final
Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/0 0/0 final
Points na prieme 0% (0/0) 0% (0/1) final
Eysy 0 0 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 0/0 0/0 final
Dvoynye oshibki 0 0 final
Pervaya podacha, % 100% 0% final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 64.6% fact: home hit / ROI 49.8% / Brier 0.251 / LogLoss 0.437
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 51.8% fact: home hit / ROI 49.8% / Brier 0.466 / LogLoss 0.659
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shang Juncheng 64.9% 57.6% market and model agree
Trungelliti M 35.1% 42.4% market and model agree
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko64.6% · +Elo prior (weight0.36).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 64.6% / 35.4% probabilities
Rating 1,553 / 1,481 Shang Juncheng / Trungelliti M
RD 188 / 147 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,176-1,930 / 1,187-1,774 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 35.4%
1 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 64.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.55 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.80 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.45 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 0.5 1.79 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 3.20 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet
1.82 55.0% —
1.98 50.5% —
2.00 50.0% —
1.97 50.8% —
1.81 55.3% —
1.79 55.9% —
— 2.55 39.2%
— 2.35 42.6%
— 3.25 30.8%
— 2.25 44.4%
— 1.20 83.3%
— 2.05 48.8%
— 3.40 29.4%
— 3.30 30.3%
— 1.04 96.2%
— 1.73 57.8%
— 1.02 98.0%
— 1.82 55.0%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
7.20 13.9%
2.12 47.2%
1.06 94.3%
1.68 59.5%
11.00 9.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet
Over 28.5 — 1.75 57.1%
Over 29.5 — 1.93 51.8%
Over 30.5 — 1.92 52.1%
Over 32.5 — 1.78 56.2%
Over 33.5 — 1.90 52.6%
Over 34.5 — 1.75 57.1%
Over 35.5 — 1.85 54.1%
Over 36.5 1.84 54.4% 1.70 58.8%
Over 37.5 1.84 54.4% 1.60 62.5%
Over 38.5 1.89 52.9% 2.02 49.5%
Over 39.5 — 2.55 39.2%
Over 40.5 — 2.02 49.5%
Under 36.5 1.94 51.6% —
Under 37.5 1.94 51.6% —
Under 38.5 1.89 52.9% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 3.5 1.68 59.5%
Over 4.5 1.06 94.3%
Under 3.5 2.12 47.2%
Under 4.5 7.20 13.9%
Match center
Shang Juncheng
L L W W L
2026-08-14 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Shang Juncheng Shang Juncheng 0:2 Sonego L
2026-08-06 2026 Montreal, Canada
Shang Juncheng Darderi L 2:1 Shang Juncheng
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Shang Juncheng Shang Juncheng 2:1 Rublev A
2026-08-02 2026 Montreal, Canada
Shang Juncheng Vallejo A D 0:2 Shang Juncheng
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Shang Juncheng Nishikori K 2:1 Shang Juncheng
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Trungelliti M
L W W W L
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Trungelliti M 0:2 Medvedev D Trungelliti M
2026-08-14 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Medjedovic H 0:2 Trungelliti M Trungelliti M
2026-08-13 2026 Cincinnati, USA, Qualifying
Trungelliti M 2:1 Nishikori K Trungelliti M
2026-08-12 2026 Cincinnati, USA, Qualifying
Trungelliti M 2:1 Ofner S Trungelliti M
2026-08-01 2026 Montreal, Canada, Qualifying
Trungelliti M 1:2 Mejia N Trungelliti M
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

More predictions

Merida Aguilar D – Rublev A 02.09 Medvedev D – Gorzny S 02.09 Nakashima B – Michelsen A 02.09 Choinski J – Van de Zandschulp B 02.09 Jodar R – Bu Yunchaokete 02.09 Guerrieri A – De Minaur A 02.09

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shang Juncheng vs Trungelliti M?

By the PropickAI model, Trungelliti M is favoured — about 65% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Shang Juncheng vs Trungelliti M?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Trungelliti M. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Shang Juncheng vs Trungelliti M?

Live odds for Shang Juncheng vs Trungelliti M from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Shang Juncheng vs Trungelliti M start?

August 31, 2026.