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World Tennis. Men. Mexico
World Tennis. Men. Mexico International
31.07.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction

Covato M / Mbithi M - Gurenko V / Van Noord N P

Tennis World Tennis. Men. Mexico
World Tennis. Men. Mexico 31.07.2026 18:00 UTC Finished
31.07.2026 18:00 UTC Finished
Covato M / Mbithi M
Covato M / Mbithi M
Gurenko V / Van Noord N P
Gurenko V / Van Noord N P
0:2
Odds
P1 1.85 50.0% BetBoom
P2 1.85 50.0% BetBoom
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
- Coverage -
0 H2H 0

Covato M / Mbithi M go head-to-head with Gurenko V / Van Noord N P on July 31, 2026 in the World Tennis. Men. Mexico, International.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 50% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Covato M / Mbithi M — 50%

Pure model vs market (1 · Covato M / Mbithi M): model 52% · market 50% Δ +2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Covato M / Mbithi M50.2%
2 · Gurenko V / Van Noord N P49.8%

Model estimate: win Covato M / Mbithi M 50.2%, win Gurenko V / Van Noord N P 49.8%. Model favourite — Covato M / Mbithi M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Covato M / Mbithi M (odds1.85) Score 2:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Kovato M / Mbiti M: probability 50% vs 54% on the line (odds 1.85)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Covato M / Mbithi M - Gurenko V / Van Noord N P July 31, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Covato M / Mbithi M.

Line favourite Fonbet: Covato M / Mbithi M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.85 / 2 1.85
  • Glicko: Covato M / Mbithi M 50.2% / Gurenko V / Van Noord N P 49.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 50.0%
2 50.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.85 → 1.85
Winner 2 1.85 → 1.85

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Match center
Start 31.07.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 50.0% @ 1.85 / 2 50.0% @ 1.85
Match center

Covato M / Mbithi M - Gurenko V / Van Noord N P

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form Championat, Flashscore
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Overview Championat
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line home - 50.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.505 / LogLoss 0.698
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line home - 50.0% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.501 / LogLoss 0.694
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Covato M / Mbithi M 50.0% 50.2% market and model agree
Gurenko V / Van Noord N P 50.0% 49.8%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 50.2% / 49.8% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Covato M / Mbithi M / Gurenko V / Van Noord N P
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.85 Fonbet · no value · model 49.8%
1 1.85 Fonbet · no value · model 50.2%

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.78 56.2%
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%