PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
English

AI verdict

AI pick Mertens E win probability ~58% confidence Medium best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Mertens E. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
Full Access Go deeper than the free pick Your free pick and probability are below. Full Access adds the full 7-AI consensus, every value-edge pick, math-model probabilities and complete reports for every match.
Get Full Access →
WTA. Monterrey
WTA. Monterrey International
29.08.2026 01:00 UTC Match prediction

Bartunkova N vs Mertens E — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis WTA. Monterrey
WTA. Monterrey clay 29.08.2026 01:00 UTC Finished
29.08.2026 01:00 UTC Finished
Bartunkova N
Bartunkova N
Rank #38 Elo 1237
62Average Form
W W W L W L W W
Mertens E
Mertens E
Rank #24 Elo 1870
61Average Form
L W L W W L W W
1:2 6:1 4:6 2:6
1 2 3 GP
Bartunkova N 6 4 2 1
Mertens E 1 6 6 2
1 2 3
Coverage: clay
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Bartunkova N Mertens E
Win % 67.6% 61.2%
Hard % 64.9% 61.6%
Clay % 69.8% 63.9%
Grass % 66.7% 54.8%
Deciding set % 58.1% 52.7%
Tie-breaks % 44.2% 49.2%
Titles (total) 6 10
Last 10 WWLWLWWLWL WLLWLWWWWL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#38 Rating #24
20 Age 30
- Height (cm) 1.79m
- Weight (kg) -
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Bartunkova N Mertens E
Aces per match 4.26 4.14
Double faults per match 4.68 4.23
Breaks per match 3.31 4.47

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Nikola Bartunkova
Rank:38 Elo: 1237
W W W L W L W W
Elise Mertens
Rank:24 Elo: 1870
L W L W W L W W
Elo favourite:Mertens E (edge +633 Elo)

Hard

Nikola BartunkovaElise Mertens
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 64.3% 18 / 28 Matches 61.1% 11 / 18 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 63.4% 26 / 41 Matches 54.2% 13 / 24 Matches
Aces Per Match 4.14 4.22
Most Aces in a match 68 % 78 %

Clay

Nikola BartunkovaElise Mertens
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 50.0% 5 / 10 Matches 55.6% 5 / 9 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 50.0% 5 / 10 Matches 55.6% 5 / 9 Matches
Aces Per Match 3.50 3.88
Most Aces in a match 40 % 88 %

Grass

Nikola BartunkovaElise Mertens
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 66.7% 6 / 9 Matches 66.7% 6 / 9 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 66.7% 6 / 9 Matches 66.7% 6 / 9 Matches
Aces Per Match 5.44 4.22
Most Aces in a match 67 % 67 %

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens
H2H wins 1 (50.0%) 1 (50.0%)
Sets 2 (50.0%) 2 (50.0%)
Wins this year 62.0% 31 / 50 Matches 60.5% 23 / 38 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 61.9% 39 / 63 Matches 56.8% 25 / 44 Matches
Current rank 38 24

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens
Prize money (career) $84,031 USD $15,475,371 USD
Rating 38 24
Age 20 30
Height — 1.79m
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens
Match Wins 62 % 61 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 62 % 61 %
Wins in Straight Sets 32 % 47 %
Wins From Behind 21 % 21 %
Won At Least 1 Set 84 % 71 %
Set 1 Win 66 % 58 %
Set 2 Win 50 % 61 %
Set 3 Win 60 % 56 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
Jun 17 2026 Berlin WTA (Grass) Nikola Bartunkova 2 – 0 Elise Mertens
Jan 24 2026 Australian Open WTA (Hard) Nikola Bartunkova 0 – 2 Elise Mertens

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.42 8.68 9.05
Over 6.5 98 % 97 % 98 %
Over 7.5 83 % 81 % 82 %
Over 8.5 72 % 50 % 61 %
Over 9.5 49 % 25 % 37 %
Over 10.5 19 % 11 % 15 %
Over 11.5 19 % 11 % 15 %

Aces

Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens Match total
Aces Per Match 4.26 4.14 8.40
Most Aces in a match 62 % 77 % N/A
1+ 94 % 100 % 100 %
2+ 85 % 91 % 97 %
3+ 68 % 69 % 89 %
4+ 53 % 49 % 76 %
5+ 47 % 34 % 63 %

Breaks

Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens Match total
Breaks Per Match 3.31 4.47 7.78
Over 0.5 55 % 97 % 100 %
Over 1.5 51 % 97 % 100 %
Over 2.5 51 % 94 % 100 %
Over 3.5 49 % 94 % 79 %
Over 4.5 49 % 57 % 57 %
Over 5.5 6 % 49 % 55 %

Tie-breaks

Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.32 0.11 0.22
Over 0.5 26 % 11 % 18 %
Over 1.5 6 % 0 % 3 %
Under 0.5 74 % 89 % 18 %
Under 1.5 94 % 100 % 3 %

Double faults

Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens Match total
Double Faults Per Match 4.68 4.23 8.91
Over 0.5 (1+) 98 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 91 % 91 % 100 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 77 % 74 % 99 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 64 % 57 % 94 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 49 % 43 % 86 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 34 % 23 % 73 %

Net points

Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 11.4 9.64 21.04
Over 4.5 (5+) 100 % 91 % 96 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 100 % 73 % 87 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 100 % 64 % 82 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 90 % 36 % 63 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 90 % 36 % 63 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 90 % 36 % 63 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.37 41.8% BetBoom
P2 1.70 58.2% BetBoom

Bartunkova N take on Mertens E in tennis, in WTA. Monterrey, on 29 August 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Mertens E: roughly 58% to win. The bookmaker consensus (7 books) implies about 59% for the same outcome.

Recent form reads: Bartunkova N have 4 won and 1 lost of their last 5; Mertens E have 3 won and 2 lost of 5. Bartunkova N arrive on a winning run. On the Glicko scale it is 1662 for Bartunkova N against 1760 for Mertens E - a gap of 98 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. That is a 1-point gap to the market. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 98 Glicko rating points, the model's 58% for Mertens E. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Mertens E — 58%

1 · Bartunkova N41.6%
market 41%
2 · Mertens E ✓ Pick58.4%
market 59%

Model estimate: win Bartunkova N 41.6%, win Mertens E 58.4%. Model favourite — Mertens E.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick confident

Match winner — Mertens E

Model confidence 70% ~79% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bartunkova N - Mertens E August 29, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mertens E.

Line favourite Fonbet: Mertens E. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.37 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Bartunkova N 41.6% / Mertens E 58.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 7 books · best price +4.9%
1 41.3%
2 ✓ Pick 58.7%

Odds source: consensus of 7 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.90 ↑ 2.35
Winner 2 1.90 ↓ 1.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Bartunkova N
42%
16.00
Mertens E
58%
1.70
Handicap
Bartunkova N (0)
50%
1.90
Mertens E (0)
50%
1.90
Total
Over 9.5
50%
1.88
Under 9.5
50%
1.86

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 Monterrey, Mexico

1/16-finals (R32)
Tauson, Clara2
Zarazua, Renata1
Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar0
Oliynykova, Oleksandra2
Parry, Diane2
Vekic, Donna1
Parks, Alycia2
Marcinko, Petra1
Zhang, Shuai0
Timofeeva, Maria2
Osorio, Camila0
Li, Ann2
Bucsa, Cristina2
Bondar, Anna0
Vidmanova, Darja2
Birrell, Kimberly0
Ruzic, Antonia0
Bartunkova, Nikola2
Tjen, Janice2
Yastremska, Dayana1
Tagger, Lilli0
Starodubtseva, Yuliia2
Udvardy, Panna2
Joint, Maya0
1/8-finals (R16)
Alexandrova, Ekaterina1
Tauson, Clara2
Oliynykova, Oleksandra0
Parry, Diane2
Chwalinska, Maja1
Parks, Alycia2
Timofeeva, Maria0
Li, Ann0
Bucsa, Cristina0
Vidmanova, Darja2
Bartunkova, Nikola2
Liang, En-Shuo1
Tjen, Janice0
Starodubtseva, Yuliia2
Udvardy, Panna1
Mertens, Elise2
Quarterfinals
Tauson, Clara0
Parry, Diane2
Parks, Alycia0
Li, Ann2
Vidmanova, Darja1
Bartunkova, Nikola2
Starodubtseva, Yuliia0
Mertens, Elise2
Semifinals
Parry, Diane2
Li, Ann0
Bartunkova, Nikola1
Mertens, Elise2
Final
Parry, Diane0
Mertens, Elise0

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Unlock the full AI analysis

Get the 7-AI consensus, math-model probabilities, value picks and full reports for every match with Full Access.

Get Full Access →
Match center
Start 29.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 29.9% @ 2.37 / 2 70.1% @ 1.01
Coverage clay
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Mertens E 58%
💹 Market Mertens E 59%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.

My virtual bank & leaderboard →
Match center

Bartunkova N - Mertens E

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 20
Set Bartunkova N Mertens E Result
Set 1 6 1 6:1
Set 2 4 6 4:6
Set 3 2 6 2:6
Metric Bartunkova N Mertens E SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 5/10 3/6 final
Points na prieme 51% (30/59) 46% (29/63) final
Eysy 5 0 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 3/6 5/10 final
Dvoynye oshibki 3 2 final
Pervaya podacha, % 48% 61% final
Points na pervoy podache 77% (23/30) 46% (16/35) final
Points na vtoroy podache 33% (11/33) 50% (11/22) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 58.4% fact: away hit / ROI 70.0% / Brier 0.345 / LogLoss 0.537
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 51.0% fact: away hit / ROI 70.0% / Brier 0.480 / LogLoss 0.673
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Bartunkova N 41.3% 42.4% market and model agree
Mertens E 58.7% 57.6% market and model agree
1X2: 7 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko41.6% · +Elo prior (weight0.39).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 41.6% / 58.4% probabilities
Rating 1,662 / 1,760 Bartunkova N / Mertens E
RD 164 / 191 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,334-1,990 / 1,378-2,142 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 58.4%
1 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 41.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.12 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.25 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.87 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 5.30 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 0.5 2.85 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 3.45 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.82 55.0% — —
1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% —
1.80 55.6% 1.84 54.4% —
— 1.90 52.6% —
1.92 52.1% — 1.12 89.3%
1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.02 98.0%
1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 1.83 54.6%
— — 1.15 87.0%
— — 1.55 64.5%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— 1.90 52.6% —

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.03 97.1%
8.50 11.8%
1.04 96.2%
10.00 10.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 14.5 — — 1.35 74.1%
Over 15.5 — — 1.27 78.7%
Over 16.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 17.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Over 19.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
Over 20.5 — — 1.93 51.8%
Over 21.5 — — 2.08 48.1%
Over 22.5 1.92 52.1% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3%
Over 23.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 24.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
Over 25.5 — — 3.70 27.0%
Over 26.5 — — 5.30 18.9%
Over 27.5 — — 12.00 8.3%
Over 29.5 — — 5.20 19.2%
Under 22.5 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.04 96.2%
Under 2.5 8.50 11.8%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-2
2026-08-29 · Nikola Bartunkova 1:2 Elize Mertens
2026-06-17 · Nikola Bartunkova 2:0 Elize Mertens
2026-01-24 · Nikola Bartunkova 0:2 Elize Mertens
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.2 (Pari) · 2 1.7 (Winline)
Bookmaker12
Pari 2.2 1.68
Winline 2.15 1.7
Fonbet 2.2 1.68
Betcity 2.2 1.68
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

7 Eysy 3
6 Dvoynye oshibki 2
12 Vsego breyk-poyntov 9
5 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 5
86 Vyigrannye Points 89
48 Points na podache 48
41 Poteryannye Points na podache 38
42 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 54
41 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 30
32 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 30
16 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 18
7 Maks. ochkov podryad 5
7 Geymy na podache 8
12 Vyigrannye geymy 13
7 Maks. geymov podryad 4
0 Tay-breyk 0
Source: ruscore
Bartunkova N
W W W L W
2026-08-27 2026 Monterrey, Mexico
Bartunkova N Vidmanova D 1:2 Bartunkova N
2026-08-26 2026 Monterrey, Mexico
Bartunkova N Bartunkova N 2:1 Liang En Shuo
2026-08-24 2026 Monterrey, Mexico
Bartunkova N Ruzic A 0:2 Bartunkova N
2026-08-15 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Bartunkova N Cirstea S 2:0 Bartunkova N
2026-08-14 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Bartunkova N Bartunkova N 2:1 Charaeva A
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Mertens E
W W L L W
2026-08-28 2026 Monterrey, Mexico
Starodubtseva Y 0:2 Mertens E Mertens E
2026-08-26 2026 Monterrey, Mexico
Udvardy P 1:2 Mertens E Mertens E
2026-08-15 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Mertens E 1:2 Parry D Mertens E
2026-08-07 2026 Toronto, Canada
Mertens E 0:2 Osaka N Mertens E
2026-08-05 2026 Toronto, Canada
Mertens E 2:1 Bondar A Mertens E
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

More predictions

Parry D – Mertens E 29.08 Arribazh T./Ginar M. – Krajicek A / Mektic N 29.08 Haddorff T./Petrov A. – Flores Kh./Piatti R. 29.08 Fery A – Buse I 29.08 Kozyreva M / Lumsden M – Dzhoint M./Siui Ifan 29.08 Reymond A / Sanchez L – Donski A./Martin D. 29.08

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bartunkova N vs Mertens E?

By the PropickAI model, Mertens E is favoured — about 58% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Bartunkova N vs Mertens E?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Mertens E. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Bartunkova N vs Mertens E?

Live odds for Bartunkova N vs Mertens E from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Bartunkova N vs Mertens E start?

August 29, 2026.