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AI verdict

AI pick Li A win probability ~63% confidence High best odds 1.48

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Li A. Full breakdown below.

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WTA. Monterrey
WTA. Monterrey International
26.08.2026 21:00 UTC

Timofeeva M - Li A

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis WTA. Monterrey
WTA. Monterrey clay 26.08.2026 21:00 UTC Not started
26.08.2026 21:00 UTC Not started
Timofeeva M
Timofeeva M
Rank #30 Elo 1518
49Struggling Form
W L W L W L L L
Li A
Li A
Rank #92 Elo 814
67Average Form
L W L L W L L W
-:-
Coverage: clay
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Timofeeva M Li A
Win % 0% 50%
Hard % 0% 50%
Clay % 0% 0%
Grass % 0% 0%
Deciding set % 0% 0%
Tie-breaks % 0% 0%
Titles (total) 0 0
Last 10 L LW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#30 Rating #92
26 Age 22
1.70m Height (cm) 1.67m
56kg Weight (kg) -
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
1 H2H 1

Serve and return stats

Timofeeva M Li A
Aces per match 5.00 1.92
Double faults per match 2.72 2.76
Breaks per match 3.21 3.93

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Ann Li
Rank:30 Elo: 1518
W L W L W L L L
Maria Timofeeva
Rank:92 Elo: 814
L W L L W L L W
Elo favourite:Li A (edge +704 Elo)

Hard

Ann LiMaria Timofeeva
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 42.9% 9 / 21 Matches 50.0% 9 / 18 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 50.0% 17 / 34 Matches 59.4% 19 / 32 Matches
Aces Per Match 4.25 2.27
Most Aces in a match 65 % 40 %

Clay

Ann LiMaria Timofeeva
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 57.1% 8 / 14 Matches 81.8% 18 / 22 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 57.1% 8 / 14 Matches 79.3% 23 / 29 Matches
Aces Per Match 4.29 1.65
Most Aces in a match 86 % 71 %

Grass

Ann LiMaria Timofeeva
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 40.0% 2 / 5 Matches 66.7% 4 / 6 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 40.0% 2 / 5 Matches 66.7% 4 / 6 Matches
Aces Per Match 10.00 1.83
Most Aces in a match 80 % 67 %

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Ann Li Maria Timofeeva
H2H wins 4 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Sets 7 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Wins this year 48.8% 20 / 41 Matches 67.4% 31 / 46 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 53.6% 30 / 56 Matches 67.7% 46 / 68 Matches
Current rank 30 92

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Ann Li Maria Timofeeva
Prize money (career) $1,907,505 USD $639,612 USD
Rating 30 92
Age 26 22
Height 1.70m 1.67m
Weight 56kg —
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Ann Li Maria Timofeeva
Match Wins 49 % 67 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 48 % 67 %
Wins in Straight Sets 22 % 52 %
Wins From Behind 25 % 22 %
Won At Least 1 Set 71 % 78 %
Set 1 Win 37 % 67 %
Set 2 Win 56 % 63 %
Set 3 Win 55 % 64 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
Jul 14 2026 Athens WTA (Hard) Ann Li 2 – 0 Maria Timofeeva
May 19 2025 Rabat WTA (Clay) Ann Li 2 – 0 Maria Timofeeva
Jan 29 2025 Singapore WTA (Hard) Ann Li 2 – 0 Maria Timofeeva
Oct 11 2024 W100 Cornellà de Llobregat ITF Women (Hard) Ann Li 1 – 0 Maria Timofeeva

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Ann Li Maria Timofeeva Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.49 9.02 9.26
Over 6.5 98 % 98 % 98 %
Over 7.5 80 % 83 % 82 %
Over 8.5 68 % 54 % 61 %
Over 9.5 45 % 37 % 41 %
Over 10.5 20 % 13 % 17 %
Over 11.5 20 % 13 % 17 %

Aces

Ann Li Maria Timofeeva Match total
Aces Per Match 5.00 1.92 6.92
Most Aces in a match 74 % 58 % N/A
1+ 90 % 71 % 88 %
2+ 77 % 50 % 78 %
3+ 69 % 32 % 69 %
4+ 56 % 21 % 53 %
5+ 49 % 11 % 46 %

Breaks

Ann Li Maria Timofeeva Match total
Breaks Per Match 3.21 3.93 7.14
Over 0.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 95 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 92 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 5 % 100 % 98 %
Over 4.5 3 % 63 % 98 %
Over 5.5 3 % 61 % 96 %

Tie-breaks

Ann Li Maria Timofeeva Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.28 0.17 0.22
Over 0.5 28 % 15 % 21 %
Over 1.5 0 % 2 % 1 %
Under 0.5 73 % 85 % 21 %
Under 1.5 100 % 98 % 1 %

Double faults

Ann Li Maria Timofeeva Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.72 2.76 5.48
Over 0.5 (1+) 92 % 92 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 72 % 74 % 96 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 59 % 58 % 90 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 33 % 29 % 82 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 10 % 11 % 70 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 5 % 5 % 49 %

Net points

Ann Li Maria Timofeeva Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 6.6 7.5 14.1
Over 4.5 (5+) 100 % 71 % 86 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 60 % 71 % 66 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 60 % 57 % 59 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 40 % 57 % 49 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 0 % 43 % 22 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 0 % 43 % 22 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.70 35.4% BetBoom
P2 1.48 64.6% BetBoom

Timofeeva M face Li A on August 26, 2026 in the WTA. Monterrey, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Timofeeva M 3-0-2, Li A 3-0-2. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Li A — 63%

1 · Timofeeva M37.0%
market 36%
2 · Li A ✓ Pick63.0%
market 64%

Model estimate: win Timofeeva M 37.0%, win Li A 63.0%. Model favourite — Li A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Timofeeva M - Li A August 26, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Li A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.65 / 2 1.48

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.5% 6 books · best price +1.4%
1 35.8%
2 ✓ Pick 64.2%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 2.45 ↑ 2.65
Winner P2 1.55 ↓ 1.48

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Timofeeva M
36%
2.70
Li A
64%
1.48
Total
Over 7.5
49%
1.88
Under 7.5
51%
1.84

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 Monterrey, Mexico, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Joint, Maya2
Hinojosa Gomez, Jessica0
Rodriguez, Victoria0
Putintseva, Yulia2
Bondar, Anna2
Jacquemot, Elsa0
Liang, En-Shuo2
Kraus, Sinja1
Udvardy, Panna2
Arango, Emiliana1
Werner, Caroline0
Vidmanova, Darja2
Tararudee, Lanlana1
Timofeeva, Maria2
Jeanjean, Leolia1
Rakhimova, Kamilla2
Qualification Final
Joint, Maya2
Putintseva, Yulia1
Bondar, Anna2
Liang, En-Shuo1
Udvardy, Panna1
Vidmanova, Darja2
Timofeeva, Maria2
Rakhimova, Kamilla1

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

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Match center
Start 26.08.2026 21:00 UTC
Market 1 35.8% @ 2.65 / 2 64.2% @ 1.48
Coverage clay
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Li A 63%
💹 Market Li A 64%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Timofeeva M - Li A

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Timofeeva M 35.8% 39.0% market and model agree
Li A 64.2% 61.0% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko37.0% · +Elo prior (weight0.35).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 37.0% / 63.0% probabilities
Rating 1,601 / 1,751 Timofeeva M / Li A
RD 161 / 168 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,279-1,923 / 1,416-2,086 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.48 Fonbet · no value · model 63.0%
1 2.65 Fonbet · no value · model 37.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.42 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.47 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.65 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 0.5 3.40 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 3.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 2.50 40.0%
— — 2.30 43.5%
— — 2.10 47.6%
1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% 1.88 53.2%
— — 2.65 37.7%
— — 2.85 35.1%
— — 1.47 68.0%
— — 1.55 64.5%
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.87 53.5%
— — 2.20 45.5%
— — 2.85 35.1%
— — 1.42 70.4%
— — 1.35 74.1%
1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% —

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.65 60.6%
4.20 23.8%
1.20 83.3%
2.15 46.5%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 18.5 — — 1.37 73.0%
Over 19.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Over 20.5 1.77 56.5% 1.81 55.3% 1.73 57.8%
Over 21.5 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.97 50.8%
Over 22.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 23.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Over 24.5 — — 2.55 39.2%
Over 25.5 — — 2.90 34.5%
Under 18.5 — — 2.85 35.1%
Under 19.5 — — 2.30 43.5%
Under 20.5 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0% —
Under 21.5 1.80 55.6% 1.81 55.3% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.50 40.0%
Under 2.5 1.50 66.7%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-3
2026-07-14 · Mariya Timofeeva 0:2 Enn Li
2025-05-19 · Mariya Timofeeva 0:2 Enn Li
2025-01-29 · Mariya Timofeeva 0:2 Enn Li
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.85 (Pari) · 2 1.51 (Betcity)
Bookmaker12
Pari 2.85 1.43
Winline 2.7 1.46
Fonbet 2.85 1.43
Betcity 2.55 1.51
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Timofeeva M
W W W L L
2026-08-25 2026 Monterrey, Mexico
Timofeeva M Zhang S 0:2 Timofeeva M
2026-08-23 2026 Monterrey, Mexico, Qualifying
Timofeeva M Timofeeva M 2:1 Rakhimova K
2026-08-22 2026 Monterrey, Mexico, Qualifying
Timofeeva M Tararudee L 1:2 Timofeeva M
2026-08-14 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Timofeeva M Timofeeva M 0:1 Wang Xiyu
2026-07-23 2026 Prague, Czech Republic
Timofeeva M Timofeeva M 0:2 Bejlek S
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Li A
W L W L W
2026-08-24 2026 Monterrey, Mexico
Osorio C 0:2 Li A Li A
2026-08-18 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Gauff C 2:0 Li A Li A
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Zhang S 0:2 Li A Li A
2026-08-07 2026 Toronto, Canada
Li A 0:2 Rybakina E Li A
2026-08-05 2026 Toronto, Canada
Li A 2:0 Cross K Li A
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.2 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

When does Timofeeva M vs Li A start?

August 26, 2026.