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AI pick Tauson C win probability ~52% best odds 1.04

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Tauson C. Full breakdown below.

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WTA - Singles: Monterrey (Mexico), Hard
WTA - Singles: Monterrey (Mexico), Hard
2nd round 27.08.2026 03:45 UTC Match prediction

Alexandrova E vs Tauson C — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis WTA - Singles: Monterrey (Mexico), Hard
WTA - Singles: Monterrey (Mexico), Hard 2nd round hard 27.08.2026 03:45 UTC Finished
27.08.2026 03:45 UTC 2nd round Finished
Alexandrova E
Alexandrova E Russia
Rank #42 Elo 1184
44Struggling Form
W L W L L L W L
Tauson C
Tauson C Denmark
Rank #19 Elo 2186
43Struggling Form
L L L W W W L L
1:2 6:7 6:4 3:6
1 2 3 GP
Alexandrova E 6 6 3 1
Tauson C 7 4 6 2
1 2 3
Stadium: Sonoma Klab. Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Alexandrova E Tauson C
Win % 56.7% 55.4%
Hard % 57.2% 58.2%
Clay % 49.5% 52%
Grass % 65.7% 41.7%
Deciding set % 48.6% 44.4%
Tie-breaks % 42.9% 45.5%
Titles (total) 6 3
Last 10 LWLWWWLLWW WLWLLLWWWL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

Russia Country Denmark
#42 Rating #19
31 Age 23
175 Height (cm) 182
- Weight (kg) 66kg
Right Hand Right
1 Seed 0
hard Coverage hard
2 H2H 2

Serve and return stats

Alexandrova E Tauson C
Aces per match 6.59 4.74
Double faults per match 3.84 4.94
Breaks per match 2.66 3.63

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

Form over the last year

Alexandrova E
50% 27 / 54
50% 27 / 54
Sintetika
no data
clay
1 iz 6
grass
5 iz 9
hard
21 iz 39
Tauson C
44% 18 / 41
44% 18 / 41
Sintetika
no data
clay
0 iz 3
grass
2 iz 6
hard
16 iz 32

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Clara Tauson
Rank:42 Elo: 1184
W L W L L L W L
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Rank:19 Elo: 2186
L L L W W W L L
Elo favourite:Alexandrova E (edge +1002 Elo)

Hard

Clara TausonEkaterina Alexandrova
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 52.0% 13 / 25 Matches 45.0% 9 / 20 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 51.6% 16 / 31 Matches 53.5% 23 / 43 Matches
Aces Per Match 7.04 4.80
Most Aces in a match 67 % 65 %

Clay

Clara TausonEkaterina Alexandrova
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 0.0% 0 / 3 Matches 16.7% 1 / 6 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 0.0% 0 / 3 Matches 16.7% 1 / 6 Matches
Aces Per Match 2.33 4.60
Most Aces in a match 67 % 60 %

Grass

Clara TausonEkaterina Alexandrova
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 40.0% 2 / 5 Matches 57.1% 4 / 7 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 40.0% 2 / 5 Matches 57.1% 4 / 7 Matches
Aces Per Match 7.00 4.67
Most Aces in a match 80 % 17 %

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Clara Tauson Ekaterina Alexandrova
H2H wins 2 (100.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Sets 4 (80.0%) 1 (20.0%)
Wins this year 44.1% 15 / 34 Matches 42.9% 15 / 35 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 43.9% 18 / 41 Matches 50.0% 29 / 58 Matches
Current rank 42 19

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Clara Tauson Ekaterina Alexandrova
Prize money (career) $2,295,819 USD $6,986,407 USD
Rating 42 19
Age 23 31
Height 1.82m 1.75m
Weight — 66kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Clara Tauson Ekaterina Alexandrova
Match Wins 44 % 43 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 45 % 42 %
Wins in Straight Sets 32 % 29 %
Wins From Behind 10 % 13 %
Won At Least 1 Set 71 % 69 %
Set 1 Win 50 % 43 %
Set 2 Win 55 % 53 %
Set 3 Win 31 % 36 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date Tournament Results
Sep 15 2021 Luxembourg WTA (Hard) Clara Tauson 2 – 1 Ekaterina Alexandrova
Mar 1 2021 Lyon WTA (Hard) Clara Tauson 2 – 0 Ekaterina Alexandrova

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Clara Tauson Ekaterina Alexandrova Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.06 9.74 9.9
Over 6.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 7.5 88 % 91 % 90 %
Over 8.5 79 % 79 % 79 %
Over 9.5 52 % 48 % 50 %
Over 10.5 33 % 24 % 29 %
Over 11.5 33 % 24 % 29 %

Aces

Clara Tauson Ekaterina Alexandrova Match total
Aces Per Match 6.59 4.74 11.33
Most Aces in a match 69 % 55 % N/A
1+ 91 % 94 % 99 %
2+ 84 % 84 % 94 %
3+ 84 % 71 % 94 %
4+ 66 % 61 % 89 %
5+ 59 % 52 % 83 %

Breaks

Clara Tauson Ekaterina Alexandrova Match total
Breaks Per Match 2.66 3.63 6.29
Over 0.5 97 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 97 % 61 % 100 %
Over 2.5 59 % 61 % 100 %
Over 3.5 50 % 10 % 99 %
Over 4.5 13 % 10 % 75 %
Over 5.5 9 % 6 % 37 %

Tie-breaks

Clara Tauson Ekaterina Alexandrova Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.3 0.33 0.32
Over 0.5 27 % 33 % 30 %
Over 1.5 3 % 0 % 2 %
Under 0.5 73 % 67 % 30 %
Under 1.5 97 % 100 % 2 %

Double faults

Clara Tauson Ekaterina Alexandrova Match total
Double Faults Per Match 3.84 4.94 8.78
Over 0.5 (1+) 91 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 88 % 90 % 97 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 72 % 74 % 94 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 53 % 61 % 94 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 38 % 42 % 79 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 16 % 39 % 70 %

Net points

Clara Tauson Ekaterina Alexandrova Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 8.6 6.83 15.43
Over 4.5 (5+) 80 % 67 % 74 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 80 % 67 % 74 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 80 % 67 % 74 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 60 % 67 % 64 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 20 % 33 % 27 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 20 % 0 % 10 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.06 47.4% BetBoom
P2 1.86 52.6% BetBoom

Alexandrova E go head-to-head with Tauson C on August 27, 2026 in the WTA - Singles: Monterrey (Mexico), Hard.

Recent form (W-D-L): Alexandrova E 3-0-2, Tauson C 2-0-3. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 48% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Tauson C — 52%

1 · Alexandrova E48.1%
2 · Tauson C51.9%

Model estimate: win Alexandrova E 48.1%, win Tauson C 51.9%. Model favourite — Tauson C.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Tauson C

Model confidence 91% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alexandrova E - Tauson C August 27, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Tauson C.

Line favourite Fonbet: Tauson C. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 10.50 / 2 1.04
  • Glicko: Alexandrova E 48.1% / Tauson C 51.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.6% 5 books · best price +3.1%
1 47.4%
2 52.6%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.73 ↑ 1.98
Winner 2 2.10 ↓ 1.83

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Alexandrova E
48%
10.50
Tauson C
52%
1.86
Handicap
Alexandrova E (0.5)
50%
7.50
Tauson C (0.5)
50%
1.83
Total
Over 22.5
50%
1.92
Under 22.5
50%
2.02

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Match center
Stadium Sonoma Klab.
Start 27.08.2026 03:45 UTC
Market 1 9.0% @ 10.50 / 2 91.0% @ 1.04
Stage 2-y krug
Coverage hard
Form 9 matches
H2H 2
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Tauson C 52%
💹 Market Tauson C 53%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Alexandrova E - Tauson C

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Ekaterina Aleksandrova - Klara Tauson. Monterrey. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 20
Set Alexandrova E Tauson C Result
Set 1 6 7 6:7
Set 2 6 4 6:4
Set 3 3 6 3:6
Metric Alexandrova E Tauson C SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/3 0/1 final
Points na prieme 37% (18/49) 30% (14/47) final
Eysy 2 5 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 1/1 3/3 final
Dvoynye oshibki 5 5 final
Pervaya podacha, % 56% 61% final
Points na pervoy podache 89% (24/27) 77% (23/30) final
Points na vtoroy podache 48% (10/21) 42% (8/19) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 51.9% fact: away hit / ROI 85.5% / Brier 0.463 / LogLoss 0.656
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H away - 50.2% fact: away hit / ROI 85.5% / Brier 0.496 / LogLoss 0.689
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Alexandrova E 47.4% 52.2% market and model agree
Tauson C 52.6% 47.8% market and model agree
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko48.1% · +Elo prior (weight0.34).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 48.1% / 51.9% probabilities
Rating 1,718 / 1,653 Alexandrova E / Tauson C
RD 170 / 154 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,378-2,058 / 1,344-1,962 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 51.9%
1 2.00 market consensus · no value · model 48.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
2 -1 1.86 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.05 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.82 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 0.5 2.63 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 3.30 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
7.50 13.3%
6.40 15.6%
1.25 80.0%
1.42 70.4%
1.65 60.6%
9.00 11.1%
2.70 37.0%
3.15 31.8%
3.15 31.8%
1.05 95.2%
1.08 92.6%
3.60 27.8%
2.65 37.7%
2.10 47.6%
1.03 97.1%
1.40 71.4%
1.30 76.9%
1.30 76.9%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
6.40 15.6%
1.08 92.6%
12.00 8.3%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 19.5 1.35 74.1%
Over 20.5 1.40 71.4%
Over 21.5 1.63 61.4%
Over 22.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 23.5 1.97 50.8%
Over 24.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 25.5 1.78 56.2%
Over 26.5 2.03 49.3%
Over 27.5 1.77 56.5%
Over 28.5 2.00 50.0%
Over 29.5 1.68 59.5%
Over 30.5 1.35 74.1%
Over 31.5 1.25 80.0%
Over 32.5 6.40 15.6%
Over 33.5 6.90 14.5%
Over 34.5 2.75 36.4%
Over 35.5 9.00 11.1%
Under 19.5 2.95 33.9%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.01 99.0%
Under 2.5 12.00 8.3%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-3
2026-08-27 · Ekaterina Aleksandrova 1:2 Klara Tauson
2021-09-15 · Ekaterina Aleksandrova 1:2 Klara Tauson
2021-03-01 · Ekaterina Aleksandrova 0:2 Klara Tauson
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.97 (Winline) · 2 2.15 (Fonbet)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.72 2.12
Winline 1.97 1.83
Fonbet 1.7 2.15
Betcity 1.77 2.06
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

11 Eysy 6
10 Dvoynye oshibki 8
4 Vsego breyk-poyntov 9
1 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 1
105 Vyigrannye Points 109
70 Points na podache 70
39 Poteryannye Points na podache 35
71 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 64
29 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 34
54 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 47
16 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 23
11 Maks. ochkov podryad 6
14 Geymy na podache 15
15 Vyigrannye geymy 17
3 Maks. geymov podryad 3
0 Tay-breyk 1
Source: ruscore
Alexandrova E
L W L W W
2026-08-18 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Alexandrova E Bejlek S 2:1 Alexandrova E
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Alexandrova E Blinkova A 1:2 Alexandrova E
2026-08-11 2026 Toronto, Canada
Alexandrova E Alexandrova E 1:2 Svitolina E
2026-08-08 2026 Toronto, Canada
Alexandrova E Sabalenka A 1:2 Alexandrova E
2026-08-06 2026 Toronto, Canada
Alexandrova E Gibson T 1:2 Alexandrova E
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
60% Win percentage
Tauson C
W L W L L
2026-08-25 2026 Monterrey, Mexico
Tauson C 2:1 Zarazua R Tauson C
2026-08-17 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Noskova L 2:0 Tauson C Tauson C
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Stearns P 1:2 Tauson C Tauson C
2026-08-05 2026 Toronto, Canada
Tauson C 0:2 Bartunkova N Tauson C
2026-07-27 2026 Washington, USA
Cocciaretto E 2:1 Tauson C Tauson C
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage

Match facts

Round: 26 Stadium: Estadio

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

More predictions

Kessler M – Alexandrova E 30.08 Stephens S – Tauson C 30.08 Bartunkova N – Mertens E 29.08 Castelnuovo L – Chen Kuan-Shou 29.08 Dellavedova M – Samrej K 29.08 Castelnuovo L – Chen K. S. (Tvn) 29.08

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alexandrova E vs Tauson C?

By the PropickAI model, Tauson C is favoured — about 52% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Alexandrova E vs Tauson C?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Tauson C. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Alexandrova E vs Tauson C?

Live odds for Alexandrova E vs Tauson C from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Alexandrova E vs Tauson C start?

August 27, 2026.