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WTA. Toronto International

2 round 04.08.2026 23:05 UTC Match prediction

Sabalenka A - Uchijima M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

Tennis WTA. Toronto

WTA. Toronto 2-y krug hard 04.08.2026 23:05 UTC Finished

04.08.2026 23:05 UTC 2-y krug Finished

Sabalenka A Belarus

L W W W L

Uchijima M Japan

W W L W W

2:0 6:3 6:3

1 2 GP

Sabalenka A 6 6 2

Uchijima M 3 3 0

1 2

Odds

P1 1.04 93.1% BetBoom

P2 14.00 6.9% BetBoom

Stadium: Aviva Senter. Tsentralnyy kort Coverage: hard

Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Belarus Country Japan

- Rating -

28 Age 24

182 Height (cm) 173

80 Weight (kg) 65

Pravsha Hand Pravsha

1 Seed Q

hard Coverage hard

1 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Sabalenka A

84% 53 / 63

84% 53 / 63

Sintetika

no data

clay

8 iz 11

grass

5 iz 7

hard

40 iz 45

Uchijima M

19% 4 / 21

19% 4 / 21

Sintetika

no data

clay

0 iz 5

grass

no data

hard

4 iz 16

Head-to-head history

2024

WTA. Toronto

Sabalenka A 0

Uchijima M 0

Sabalenka A face Uchijima M on August 4, 2026 in the WTA. Toronto, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Sabalenka A 3-0-2, Uchijima M 4-0-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 88% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Sabalenka A — 88%

Pure model vs market (1 · Sabalenka A): model 44% · market 93% Δ −49 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Sabalenka A ✓ Pick87.5%

market93%

2 · Uchijima M12.5%

market7%

Model estimate: win Sabalenka A 87.5%, win Uchijima M 12.5%. Model favourite — Sabalenka A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sabalenka A - Uchijima M August 4, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sabalenka A.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sabalenka A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 14.00
Glicko: Sabalenka A 87.5% / Uchijima M 12.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 4 books · best price +1.5%

1 ✓ Pick 92.7%

2 7.4%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.07 ↓ 1.03

Winner 2 9.00 ↑ 13.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Match center

Stadium Aviva Senter. Tsentralnyy kort

Start 04.08.2026 23:05 UTC

Market 1 93.3% @ 1.01 / 2 6.7% @ 14.00

Stage 2-y krug

Coverage hard

Form 9 matches

H2H 1

Match center

Sabalenka A - Uchijima M

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty tennisnogo matcha Arina Sobolenko - Moyuka Utidzima, 05 avgusta 2026. Toronto. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Arina Sobolenko - Moyuka Utidzima, kto pobedil.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Championat match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Donor check 2 block. lineup_availability, officials

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad source needed

Referees source needed

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 2:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Set Sabalenka A Uchijima M Result

Set 1 6 3 6:3

Set 2 6 3 6:3

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 87.5% fact: home hit / ROI 4.0% / Brier 0.031 / LogLoss 0.133

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage, H2H home - 54.5% fact: home hit / ROI 4.0% / Brier 0.414 / LogLoss 0.607

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Sabalenka A 92.4% 87.5% market and model agree

Uchijima M 7.6% 12.5%

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 87.5% / 12.5% probabilities

Rating 1,500 / 1,758 Sobolenko A / Uchijima M

RD 350 / 184 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,389-2,126 strength interval

HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 9.80 market consensus · no value · model 12.5%

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 87.5%

Total

Over 15.5 1.23 Fonbet · line only

Over 16.5 1.47 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
—	—	1.05 95.2%
—	—	1.02 98.0%
—	—	1.05 95.2%
—	—	1.25 80.0%
1.69 59.2%	1.69 59.2%	2.75 36.4%
—	—	5.80 17.2%
2.15 46.5%	2.18 45.9%	—
—	—	8.00 12.5%
—	—	10.00 10.0%
—	—	7.00 14.3%
—	—	3.60 27.8%
—	—	1.40 71.4%
—	—	1.09 91.7%
—	—	1.23 81.3%
—	—	1.08 92.6%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 15.5	—	—	1.23 81.3%
Over 16.5	—	—	1.47 68.0%
Over 17.5	1.89 52.9%	1.93 51.8%	1.38 72.5%
Over 18.5	—	—	3.60 27.8%
Over 19.5	—	—	10.00 10.0%
Over 20.5	—	—	2.45 40.8%
Over 21.5	—	—	6.30 15.9%
Over 22.5	—	—	2.20 45.5%
Under 15.5	—	—	3.75 26.7%
Under 16.5	—	—	2.60 38.5%
Under 17.5	1.89 52.9%	1.87 53.5%	2.80 35.7%
Under 18.5	—	—	1.25 80.0%
Under 19.5	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Under 20.5	—	—	1.50 66.7%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.02 98.0%	1.03 97.1%	1.01 99.0%	1.04 96.2%
	14.00 7.1%	12.00 8.3%	16.00 6.3%	9.80 10.2%

Match center

Sabalenka A

L W W W L

2026-07-05 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain

Sabalenka A Sabalenka A 0:2 Osaka N

2026-07-03 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain

Sabalenka A Sabalenka A 2:0 Ostapenko J

2026-07-01 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain

Sabalenka A Sabalenka A 2:0 Kessler M

2026-06-29 2026 Wimbledon, London, Great Britain

Sabalenka A Sabalenka A 2:0 Kostovic T

2026-06-20 2026 Berlin, Germany

Sabalenka A Sabalenka A 1:2 Pegula J

3 Wins

2 Losses

1.4 Sets won

0.8 Sets lost

60% Win percentage

Uchijima M

W W L W W

2026-08-02 2026 Toronto, Canada

Uchijima M 2:0 Bucsa C Uchijima M

2026-08-01 2026 Toronto, Canada, Qualifying

Uchijima M 2:0 Sakatsume H Uchijima M

2026-07-30 2026 Vancouver, Canada

Uchijima M 1:2 Inglis M Uchijima M

2026-07-29 2026 Vancouver, Canada

Uchijima M 2:1 Kinoshita H Uchijima M

2026-07-28 2026 Vancouver, Canada

Uchijima M 2:0 Kuramochi M Uchijima M

4 Wins

1 Losses

1.8 Sets won

0.6 Sets lost

80% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historySabalenka A - Uchijima M

Sabalenka A

0 matches total

Uchijima M

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Event

2024 Rolan Garros (zh) clay 2-y krug Q M. Moyuka Utidzima Moyuka Utidzima (Japan) 0 2 A. Arina Sobolenko Arina Sobolenko (Belarus) 2 6 ; ;