Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.
Total games
Alina Charaeva
Rebecca Marino
Match total
Average Games in a Set
9.33
9.33
9.33
Over 6.5
93 %
100 %
97 %
Over 7.5
81 %
83 %
82 %
Over 8.5
67 %
50 %
59 %
Over 9.5
42 %
50 %
46 %
Over 10.5
21 %
17 %
19 %
Over 11.5
21 %
17 %
19 %
Aces
Alina Charaeva
Rebecca Marino
Match total
Aces Per Match
3.31
10.00
13.31
Most Aces in a match
45 %
100 %
N/A
1+
81 %
100 %
97 %
2+
62 %
100 %
91 %
3+
52 %
100 %
85 %
4+
43 %
100 %
81 %
5+
36 %
100 %
80 %
Breaks
Alina Charaeva
Rebecca Marino
Match total
Breaks Per Match
3.24
11
14.24
Over 0.5
100 %
100 %
100 %
Over 1.5
95 %
100 %
100 %
Over 2.5
64 %
100 %
100 %
Over 3.5
62 %
100 %
100 %
Over 4.5
0 %
100 %
99 %
Over 5.5
0 %
100 %
97 %
Tie-breaks
Alina Charaeva
Rebecca Marino
Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match
0.3
0
0.15
Over 0.5
23 %
0 %
12 %
Over 1.5
7 %
0 %
3 %
Under 0.5
77 %
100 %
12 %
Under 1.5
93 %
100 %
3 %
Double faults
Alina Charaeva
Rebecca Marino
Match total
Double Faults Per Match
4.67
7
11.67
Over 0.5 (1+)
100 %
100 %
100 %
Over 1.5 (2+)
93 %
100 %
99 %
Over 2.5 (3+)
71 %
100 %
92 %
Over 3.5 (4+)
64 %
100 %
90 %
Over 4.5 (5+)
45 %
100 %
86 %
Over 5.5 (6+)
33 %
100 %
84 %
Net points
Alina Charaeva
Rebecca Marino
Match total
Net Points Won Per Match
10.4
N/A
N/A
Over 4.5 (5+)
100 %
N/A
N/A
Over 5.5 (6+)
100 %
N/A
N/A
Over 6.5 (7+)
100 %
N/A
N/A
Over 7.5 (8+)
100 %
N/A
N/A
Over 8.5 (9+)
100 %
N/A
N/A
Over 9.5 (10+)
60 %
N/A
N/A
Source:tennisstats.com
Odds
P115.00
9.0% BetBoom
P21.48
91.0% BetBoom
Marino R face Charaeva A on August 11, 2026 in the WTA. Tsintsinnati, International.
Recent form (W-D-L): Marino R 1-0-4, Charaeva A 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 38% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2Charaeva A — 62%
Pure model vs market (2 · Charaeva A): model 47% · market 64%Δ −17 ppmodel estimates below the market
62%2
1 · Marino R37.6%
market36%
2 · Charaeva A ✓ Pick62.4%
market64%
Model estimate: win Marino R 37.6%, win Charaeva A 62.4%. Model favourite — Charaeva A.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Charaeva A (odds1.38)Score 1:2confidence 65%✓ outcome correct
•Marino R: forma P (0-1)
•Charaeva A: forma PVPP (1-3)
•Model backs Charaeva A: probability 65% vs 72% on the line (odds 1.38)
•no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Marino R - Charaeva A August 11, 2026
Tennis math model
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Charaeva A.
Line favourite Fonbet: Charaeva A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (Fonbet): 1 15.00 / 2 1.01
Glicko: Marino R 37.6% / Charaeva A 62.4%
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 6.2%
6 books · best price +1.4%
135.7%
2 ✓ Pick64.3%
Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 12.85↑ 15.00
Winner 21.42↓ 1.01
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement1/1
Confidence62.0%
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Marino R
36%
15.00
Charaeva A
64%
1.48
Total
Over 21.5
51%
2.10
Under 21.5
49%
1.96
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
⚔
Head-to-head and form stats
Head-to-head and form
Team form
Marino R
5-5WLWWWLLWLL
scored 1.2conceded 1.3
Charaeva A
6-4LWWLWLWWLW
scored 1.4conceded 1.1
Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.
*
AI overview
AI predictions
AI analysis:1/7 ready· Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2
Google AIupdated11.08.2026 20:07 UTC
130%
270%✓ favourite
Score0:2Total games: Under 21.5Bet:P2
Per AI dataForm:L / WLLWH2H: 0-0Injuries:no
AI
1
2
Score
Total games
Bet
Google AI
30%
70%
0:2
Under 21.5
P2
Match center
Start11.08.2026 23:30 UTC
Market1 6.3% @ 15.00 / 2 93.7% @ 1.01
Coveragehard
Form4 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI modelsCharaeva A 70%
📐 Math modelCharaeva A 62%
💹 MarketCharaeva A 64%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form5/5
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market2
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
TournamentChampionat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score0:2
Events0
Statistics0
SetMarino RCharaeva AResult
Set 1363:6
Set 2363:6
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
OptionSignalPrediction / actualRating
Glicko-2: base favouriteAudit
tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed
Data: line, form, coverage
away - 62.4% fact: away
hit / ROI 48.0% / Brier 0.283 / LogLoss 0.471
Glicko-2: calibrated favouriteAudit
tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed
Data: line, form, coverage
away - 51.5% fact: away
hit / ROI 48.0% / Brier 0.471 / LogLoss 0.664
Market and Glicko
Tennis math model.
Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Marino R35.8%41.8%market and model agree
Charaeva A64.2%58.2%market and model agree
1X2: 6 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko37.6% · +Elo prior (weight0.57).
Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.01
Fonbet · no value · model 62.4%
12.61
market consensus · no value · model 37.6%
Handicap
2 -0.51.42
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.51.70
Fonbet · line only
1 -0.52.65
Fonbet · line only
1 +0.52.02
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 10.53.70
market consensus · line only
Over 17.51.50
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
By the PropickAI model, Charaeva A is favoured — about 62% win probability.
What does PropickAI predict for Marino R vs Charaeva A?
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Charaeva A. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
When does Marino R vs Charaeva A start?
August 11, 2026.
🍪
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