Who is the favourite in Canada vs Mexico?

By the PropickAI model, Canada is favoured — about 69% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Canada vs Mexico?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Canada. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

AI verdict

AI pick Canada win probability ~69% confidence High best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Canada. Full breakdown below.

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World: Pan-American Cup - Playoff

16.08.2026 21:30 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

16.08.2026 21:30 UTC

Finished

World: Pan-American Cup - Playoff

Canada - Mexico

Volleyball

Canada

2 : 1

28:26 25:18 20:25

Finished

Mexico

Canada take on Mexico on August 16, 2026 in the World: Pan-American Cup - Playoff.

Recent form (W-D-L): Canada 2-0-2, Mexico 0-0-1. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 69% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Canada — 69%

1 · Canada ✓ Pick68.6%

market 80%

2 · Mexico31.4%

market 20%

Model estimate: win Canada 68.6%, win Mexico 31.4%. Model favourite — Canada.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Canada (odds1.43) Score 3:1 confidence 65% ✓ outcome correct

• Canada: forma PVVVV (4-1)
• Mexico: forma PPVVV (3-2)
• Model backs Canada: probability 65% vs 70% on the line (odds 1.43)
• no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Canada - Mexico August 16, 2026

Volleyball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Canada.

Line favourite Fonbet: Canada. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00
Glicko: Canada 68.6% / Mexico 31.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.0% 2 books · best price +14.4%

1 ✓ Pick 80.1%

2 19.9%

Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.43 ↓ 1.30

Winner 2 2.60 ↑ 3.15

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Canada

70%

1.35

Mexico

30%

11.00

Total

Over 178.5

50%

1.85

Under 178.5

50%

1.85

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Canada

#1GP 44-0

Mexico

#1GP 43-1

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

12Wins16

1.6Sets on average1.8

Head-to-head matches: 28 · average total 3.5 (sets)

Team form

Canada

4-6LLLLLWWWWL

sets for 1.9sets against 2.0

Mexico

6-4WWWLLWWWLL

sets for 2.0sets against 1.5

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Volleyball stats

Form by set

Canada

Last 5: 4W · 1L · sets 10:3 · 80%

0:2HPuerto-Riko

3:0AUSA

2:0ACosta Rica

3:1HPuerto-Riko

2:0HTrinidad i Tobago

Mexico

Last 5: 3W · 2L · sets 7:6 · 60%

0:3HUSA

0:2HCuba

2:1HDominican Republic

2:0HGvatemala

3:0HKyurasao

Set scores in recent matches: green — win, red — loss. H — home, A — away. For reference.

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Match center

Start 16.08.2026 21:30 UTC

Market 1 91.6% @ 1.01 / 2 8.4% @ 11.00

Form 6 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Canada 69%

💹 Market Canada 80%

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Match center

Canada - Mexico

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 3/1 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 2:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Set Canada Mexico Result

Set 1 28 26 28:26

Set 2 25 18 25:18

Set 3 20 25 20:25

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: form home - 68.6% fact: home hit / ROI 35.0% / Brier 0.197 / LogLoss 0.377

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: form home - 55.6% fact: home hit / ROI 35.0% / Brier 0.395 / LogLoss 0.587

Glicko-2: public filter Watch caution: sets and points are still being collected Data: form home - 55.6% fact: home hit / ROI 35.0% / Brier 0.395 / LogLoss 0.587

Glicko-2: precision filter Watch caution: sets and points are still being collected Data: form home - 55.6% fact: home hit / ROI 35.0% / Brier 0.395 / LogLoss 0.587

Market and Glicko

Volleyball math model. The volleyball model accounts for the winner, set score and points: 3:0 gives a stronger signal than 3:2. When data is available we separately look at serve, reception and market totals.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Canada 69.7% 68.6% market and model agree

Mexico 30.3% 31.4%

1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Volleyball math model

P1 / P2 68.6% / 31.4% probabilities

Rating 1,496 / 1,456 Canada / Mexico

RD 116 / 121 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,264-1,728 / 1,214-1,698 strength interval

The volleyball model accounts for the winner, set score and points: 3:0 gives a stronger signal than 3:2. When data is available we separately look at serve, reception and market totals.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.96 market consensus · no value · model 31.4%

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 68.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.68 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 141.5 1.62 Fonbet · line only

Over 142.5 1.58 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.83 54.6%
	1.72 58.1%
	1.72 58.1%
	2.05 48.8%
	1.87 53.5%
	2.00 50.0%
	2.00 50.0%
	1.45 69.0%
	2.00 50.0%
	1.72 58.1%
	1.72 58.1%
	2.07 48.3%
	8.50 11.8%
	7.30 13.7%
	1.40 71.4%
	1.43 69.9%
	1.85 54.1%
	1.90 52.6%

Match winner (volleyball)

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
	1.01 99.0%	1.35 74.1%
	11.00 9.1%	2.96 33.8%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 141.5	1.62 61.7%
Over 142.5	1.58 63.3%
Over 143.5	1.90 52.6%
Over 144.5	2.35 42.6%
Over 145.5	1.70 58.8%
Over 146.5	2.10 47.6%
Over 147.5	1.62 61.7%
Over 148.5	2.45 40.8%
Over 149.5	1.83 54.6%
Over 151.5	1.85 54.1%
Over 152.5	2.50 40.0%
Over 153.5	1.63 61.4%
Over 155.5	1.85 54.1%
Over 160.5	1.85 54.1%
Over 161.5	2.50 40.0%
Over 174.5	1.63 61.4%
Over 178.5	1.85 54.1%
Over 179.5	1.85 54.1%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-1

2026-08-16 · Canada 3:1 Mexico

2025-08-31 · Canada 1:3 Mexico

2016-08-13 · Canada 3:0 Mexico

Source: ruscore

Canada

L W W

2026-08-16 Pan American Cup 2026

Canada Canada 1:3 Puerto Rico

2026-08-10 Pan American Cup 2026

Canada Canada 3:1 Puerto Rico

2026-08-09 Pan American Cup 2026

Canada Canada 3:0 Trinidad and Tobago

2 Wins

1 Losses

2.3 Scored

1.3 Conceded

67% Win percentage

Mexico

16.08 02:00 UTC World: Pan-American Cup - Playoff

Mexico 0:3 USA

0 Wins

1 Losses

0.0 Scored

3.0 Conceded

0% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Canada - Mexico

Canada

3 matches total

Mexico

Canada: 1 (33.3%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Mexico: 2 (66.7%)

Biggest win Mexico 0:3 (2025-10-08) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 2025-08-31) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 6

6 Goals conceded 4

Match history

2025-10-08 Pan American Cup 2026

Canada 0:3 Mexico

2025-08-31 Pan American Cup 2026

Canada 1:3 Mexico

2023-10-08 Pan American Cup 2026

Canada 3:0 Mexico

Canada - Mexico

AI match prediction Canada - Mexico August 16, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Forecast by market

League table

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

Team form

Form by set

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Canada - Mexico

Match markets

Handicap

Match winner (volleyball)

Total

Form & head-to-head

Overall statistics

Match history

Recent form

Standings

Team form & streaks

Match facts

Frequently asked questions

#		P	W	L
1	Canada	4	4	0
2	USA	4	3	1
3	Puerto Rico	4	2	2
4	Costa Rica	4	1	3
5	Trinidad and Tobago	4	0	4

Canada - Mexico

AI match prediction Canada - Mexico August 16, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Forecast by market

League table

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

Team form

Form by set

Buy the full AI analysis

Canada - Mexico

Match markets

Handicap

Match winner (volleyball)

Total

Form & head-to-head

Overall statistics

Match history

Recent form

Standings

Team form & streaks

Match facts

More predictions

Frequently asked questions