Sbornye. Friendlies
Tunisia take on Morocco on August 5, 2026 in the Sbornye. Friendlies, International.
PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 77% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Tunisia — 77%
Pure model vs market (1 · Tunisia): model 50% · market 84% Δ −34 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Tunisia 76.7%, win Morocco 23.3%. Model favourite — Tunisia.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Tunisia.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Volleyball math model. The volleyball model accounts for the winner, set score and points: 3:0 gives a stronger signal than 3:2. When data is available we separately look at serve, reception and market totals.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The volleyball model accounts for the winner, set score and points: 3:0 gives a stronger signal than 3:2. When data is available we separately look at serve, reception and market totals.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% | — | |
| 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | — | |
| — | — | 2.13 47.0% | |
| — | — | 1.90 52.6% | |
| — | — | 1.93 51.8% | |
| — | — | 2.15 46.5% | |
| — | — | 1.87 53.5% | |
| — | — | 1.80 55.6% | |
| — | — | 2.35 42.6% | |
| — | — | 1.52 65.8% | |
| — | — | 1.40 71.4% | |
| — | — | 1.72 58.1% | |
| — | — | 2.40 41.7% | |
| — | — | 2.03 49.3% | |
| — | — | 7.30 13.7% | |
| — | — | 3.00 33.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.21 82.6% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.06 94.3% | 1.07 93.5% | |
| 3.80 26.3% | 5.00 20.0% | 6.70 14.9% | 6.80 14.7% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 122.5 | — | — | 1.50 66.7% |
| Over 123.5 | — | — | 1.48 67.6% |
| Over 124.5 | — | — | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 125.5 | — | — | 1.65 60.6% |
| Over 126.5 | — | — | 3.00 33.3% |
| Over 127.5 | — | — | 7.30 13.7% |
| Over 128.5 | — | — | 4.70 21.3% |
| Over 129.5 | — | — | 2.23 44.8% |
| Over 130.5 | — | — | 2.65 37.7% |
| Over 131.5 | — | — | 1.83 54.6% |
| Over 174.5 | 1.86 53.8% | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| Over 177.5 | 1.87 53.5% | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| Under 174.5 | 1.86 53.8% | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| Under 177.5 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.83 54.6% | — |
Full head-to-head historyTunisia - Morocco
The Tunisia - Morocco breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
